Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[Stuie]

We do have to entertain this fact that this cold could be locked in for a long time yet, I would consider May, and whilst that seems unbelievable, this pattern is well and truly locked in, for a while yet. I was wondering if it's possible that Meteorological Spring would not happen this year at all.. and to be honest based on some outputs, this won't be far from the truth.

When was the last time that happened? sheesh

[Snowman.]

UKMO like.

[Purga]

ECM looking very good so far

"We're dreamin' of a white Easter" c'mon the cold..

[chionomaniac]

I see the ECM T+120 has another perfectly aligned, negatively tilted, stretched, disrupted trough to maximise the SW snow chances. For all those travelling on Good Friday it may be wise to take a snow shovel with you.

Edited March 24, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Summer Sun]

Straw clutching I know but slightly milder air into the SW on ECM at t120

Heavy snow is likely somewhere in the south where the boundary lies

Edited March 24, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowman.]

Straw clutching I know but slightly milder air into the SW on ECM at t120

Heavy snow is likely somewhere in the south where the boundary lies

Go to love you Gav.

How about we all chip in to send Gav on a 3 day holiday this week end?

[lorenzo]

I see the ECM T+120 has another perfectly aligned, negatively tilted, stretched, disrupted trough to maximise the SW snow chances. For all those travelling on Good Friday it may be wise to take a snow shovel with you.

Just when it looks like there is enough energy for the Atlantic to make some decent inroads, ECM puts the brakes on between 96 and 120, that disruption and slider tilt increasing the model drama / prolong the cold. FI has to be around 120 - 144 at present based on the behaviour of this mid-Atlantic low.

What do you make of the strat zonal wind profile for March C?

[Methuselah]

Yes indeed, I have my own experiment in progress

Interesting to see what the ECM does this evening with the low. It was a warm outlier on the operational this morning and the 12z suite thus far much more in line with ensemble expectation.

ECM 12z t96

Are you going to compare your results with those of Vlad 'The Impaler' Putin, Tamara?

http://en.rian.ru/sports/20130321/180166864.html

Edited March 24, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[Snowman.]

Well

That's new doesn't even get in just gives up.

[Phantom2]

Straw clutching I know but slightly milder air into the SW on ECM at t120

Heavy snow is likely somewhere in the south where the boundary lies

I think your hand must be pretty sweaty Gav clutching that straw !! ...hot summer on the cards mate !!!

[Purga]

Join the protesters Gavin

Poor snowmen.

[shaky]

Freezing cold ecm!

[Mucka]

GFS full ensemble for London

Good agreement there on no return to the bitter cold we have now a relaxation in the cold looks likely to occur later this week

I expect the Darlington ensembles are somewhat colder though Gav

ECM March 30th

Edited March 24, 2013 by Mucka

[Isabellesnanny]

Must admit - I am hopeful of a turnaround every time I see Gavins avatar but looks like to no avail yet.

If we keep thinking positive thoughts Gavin it has to happen soon

[Purga]

Freezing cold ecm!

It's a 'cracker' as Frank Carson would say!

Pressure building to the NW very nicely

Edited March 24, 2013 by Purga

[bluearmy]

typical to see a set of 12z ops that completely reverse the trend of the 00z ones. given the recent suites plus the ecm ens/naefs and you would place more faith in the 12z solutions.

[Snowman.]

Low ejecting off becoming a Channel low.

Edited March 24, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Stuie]

Gavin, you are going to have to try reverse psychology or something because there goes another week.

[Mucka]

Yes indeed, I have my own experiment in progress

Interesting to see what the ECM does this evening with the low. It was a warm outlier on the operational this morning and the 12z suite thus far much more in line with ensemble expectation.

ECM 12z t96

Damn, I've been out-geeked again!

Atlantic still making no inroads come 168 on ECM

[The PIT]

Amazing the cold doesn't want to go away. ECM seems to be slipping back towards the Fridge idea. I've got a tip for Gavin. Start saying you like cold and spring may appear consistently on the runs.

[-uksnow-]

Low ejecting off becoming a Channel low.

Yup, another snow event 36 hours after the first?!

Largely -2's with continetal flow and low DP's

[Stuie]

Gavin, you are going to have to try reverse psychology or something because there goes another week.

Amazing the cold doesn't want to go away. ECM seems to be slipping back towards the Fridge idea. I've got a tip for Gavin. Start saying you like cold and spring may appear consistently on the runs.

A little spooky?

[Matty M]

ECM is incredible.

This is truly exceptional.

[The PIT]

A little spooky?

Yeah I saw your post just after I clicked post. Gavin's been hunkering after a warm for the last two weeks sooner than later he'll get lucky unless we make history.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013032412/ECH1-168.GIF?24-0

This is a freakish chart with a mid level blocking high stuck SW of iceland-

The above chart also highlights a VERY high chance of snow falling & settling across the UK for Easter weekend-

S