Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[Richard Lake]

Well the models seem to be slowly coming round to this current spell of cold weather continuing upto this weekend.Whatever happens after next Saturday is up for debate,but remember,this time last week certain models were suggesting that by now,espicially in the South would be 10 degrees by now.That hasn't happened(the high today here was 0.6degrees!!).Just my gut feel,but i think the block in place is so strong it will need something pretty special to displace it and i think this time next week we will still be in the midst of the cold spell.This will be a March to remember like Dec2010 was

Until I see a foot of snow again, highs of -5 and lows of -18 in my neck of the woods this will never rival Dec 2010.

[bradymk]

Use Gfs 0.5 on meteociel when looking at precip because normal gfs precip charts are too basic and precip may look widespread when this is actually not the case. Gfs 0.5 not brilliant but better than normal gfs precip

[Panayiotis]

Lovely.

[Snowman.]

Use Gfs 0.5 on meteociel when looking at precip because normal gfs precip charts are too basic and precip may look widespread when this is actually not the case. Gfs 0.5 not brilliant but better than normal gfs precip

Still fairly widespread.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Lovely.

Could be better. Any southward correction within the timescale and we miss the whole lot. France Taking the brunt of it.

[Stuie]

Definitely something of interest this week.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The face over Scandinavia looks shocked at the cold!

[-uksnow-]

Astonishing

[Luke Best]

The face over Scandinavia looks shocked at the cold!

Blimey - I see Munch's The Scream!!!

[Hotspur62]

Until I see a foot of snow again, highs of -5 and lows of -18 in my neck of the woods this will never rival Dec 2010.

I didn't mean quite in terms of temps and snowfall of Dec 2010.This part of NW Kent had 17inchs of lying snow(the most in my lifetime of 41 years!1) and temps down to Minus 10,i meant in relation to how far below average this March will be as i think it will turn out to be coldest March for at least 28years,if not more.Apologies for not makinh myself clearer.

[Joe Levy]

Blimey - I see Munch's The Scream!!!

A very cultured response to what is a very wintry chart for this time of year! Perhaps it is gasping at the suspense of how far north the precipitation will move. It seems like this may be another of those low pressure systems where we don't know the answer until perhaps a day before it arrives!

[-uksnow-]

You can see just why the low in the atlantic disrupts and heads under, there is nothing in the mid atlantic to push it on through!

Jet stream way south

[nitro_deluxe]

gobsmacked..just keeps on coming doesn't it? whether it's a good or bad thing,coinciding with Easter etc., is another matter!

If it still looks like that by say midweek then double wow.

[bluearmy]

Day 5 fax looks interesting with the occlusion cornwall though cherbourg. Wonder how much further south it will be on tomorrow's day 4?

[Kentspur]

Well I'm looking forward to the Easter egg hunt in the snow plenty of white rabbits around;-))

[Polar Maritime]

Well I'm looking forward to the Easter egg hunt in the snow plenty of white rabbits around;-))

Probably running away from the Polar Bears..

[Dunlop Dave]

Keep coming south !!! Blitz the Channel Islands again please !!

[Panayiotis]

Been a long day today but some massive improvements as the day went on, models at 120hrs:

A lot of agreement throughout the models however the JMA and NAVGEM are slightly different, you can see that most of them show the flow coming from the continent with low dew points and negative 850hpa temps, whereas the JMA and NAVGEM having it coming from the Atlantic (for the south) and east for the north resulting in a south/north divide.

The reason is because in those 2 models there isnt sufficient heights to the north for the low to dig south. Its only 2 out of the 8 models I have posted, so there is no worries there however if tomorrow more models show this (which is IMO unlikely) then some concern is needed *if youre a cold and snow lover*.

Looking forward to another week of cold,possibly light snow,and twist and turns within the models.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Panayiotis

[weatherguy]

Lovely.

Too far south for my liking because:

1) from an IMBY perspective, it's too far south! Which is frustrating because the event we just had was too far north for me (by about 40 miles)...

2) from the UK perspective as a whole, the story so far this winter has been to underestimate the strength of the block, and correct those undercutting lows to head further south than they are originally progged. Any further south on that chart and it will be a great chart if you live in northern France

That said, taking into consideration the total size of the low/setup, such changes north or south really are miniscule in % terms. All we can tell this far out is that it looks likely there'll be another atlantic attempt at a breakdown towards the end of the week, and it looks as if it will result in an undercut of sorts. The broad position won't be known for maybe another 72 hours or so, and then maybe 96 hours before getting the "north or south of the m4 corridor" question answered, then I'm sure there'll be plenty of nowcasting at +120 hours; these set ups are notoriously difficult to pin down...

One thing that is more certain though is that there'll be some serious cold embedded over the UK through this week, which would be incredibly cold even for mid winter - let alone late March. This cold shoul, make any frontal snowfall somewhat less marginal than the one we just experienced.

Edited March 24, 2013 by weatherguy

[Iceni]

The face over Scandinavia looks shocked at the cold!

That's Edvard Munch 'The Scream' or it might be our very own Jack Frost.

[Purga]

Too far south for my liking

No just about right, we're banking on another South Downs blizzard thank you very much but a direct hit this time rather than the Channel Islands left overs.

[Joe Levy]

No just about right, we're banking on another South Downs blizzard thank you very much but a direct hit this time rather than the Channel Islands left overs.

I agree! The South of England has had comparatively little snow this winter, especially the further West you go! A direct hit for most, if not all of Southern England would be perfect to correct the imbalance, though if the models are already showing this now, will they still be showing it on the day? That is the dangerous question...

[Purga]

Just remember..

Edited March 25, 2013 by Purga

[Kentspur]

Well we're certainly not in the south west and have only had 1significant snowy event all winter/spring that was in January, so we're more than overdue our share too but won't be getting my hopes up

[Joe Levy]

Well we're certainly not in the south west and have only had 1significant snowy event all winter/spring that was in January, so we're more than overdue our share too but won't be getting my hopes up

Yes I share your pain haha! Mind you, most of us from the Exe Valley westwards have not seen a single snowy event beyond seeing falling snow, so we're even further behind