Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[Harsh Climate]

I do feel sorry for those who live along the east coast this spring and early summer following this extended cold spell.. When, eventually, conditions do warm up, there will be a horrendous amount of sea mist/fog and low cloud plaguing eastern areas everytime the wind is from an easterly direction thanks to those North Sea temperatures being so subdued. Given synoptic patterns that could be a very frequent occurrence indeed, more so than normal.

I'm sure they will appreciate you for reminding them of that paul

[Summer Sun]

Some tentative hints in FI that this stubborn northern blocking could shift

The high drifts over the UK and forces that deep low in the Atlantic north

24 hours later that low continues north

Two days later the northern blocking reduces and the Azores ridges up towards the south of the UK

24 hours later the northern blocking has gone and the Azores remains closer to the UK

[Steve C]

A look at summer curtsey of CFS

And the 2m temperatures

June

July

August

PS these CFS charts got this cold spell in advance so its going to be a case of seeing what it shows over the coming weeks

If I understand the 2m temperature correctly that would bring average temperatures in the high teens?

A look at the remainder of spring can be found here - http://forum.netweat...80#entry2667888

From those charts, maybe the Northern Isles are the place to head this summer then?

[Tim Bland]

FI - last few frames of GFS looks cool and wet to me still with snow on high ground in north. Surprised to actually view it after comments on here about spring like charts.

[Man With Beard]

I know this isn't showing on the charts at but isn't there another possible way out of the cold easterly - and that is if the Scandi high on GFS corrects south and west so much that it actually ends up on top of us? Or close enough to cause the flow to slacken? At this time of year, I would have thought we could generate our own warm sector as long as the easterly is stopped? This would turn things warmer in Central/Western areas though easterly areas will struggle to get warmer due to the cold North Sea.

This idea seems a bit outlandish at the moment but given the trend to push FI south and west it just might be an option?

Edited March 27, 2013 by rjbw

[Summer Sun]

12z ensembles show a slow but steady rise over the next 2 weeks

Precipitation remains very low

An good ending to the 12z ensembles with them going in the right direction

Edited March 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[Purga]

good end to the gfs , AZ high building vortex back intact . we might get a summer yet

Dreadful ending to 12z GFS but it's only FI so not worth worrying about at this stage however, the ENS show plenty of cold runs

P19 is particularly nice at 264hrs

A decent wack of snow if that verifies.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Purga

[Summer Sun]

t120 from ECM shows little change so far

t144 has a huge difference in uppers between GFS and ECM

ECM left GFS right

Edited March 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[Purga]

ECM a cracker so far keeping the -8's right through th holiday weekend

A searingly cold easterly building up with the chance of snow pushing in from the S / SW

C'mon the snow the cold is in place we just need the white magic!

[Purga]

ECM a cracker so far keeping the -8's right through th holiday weekend

A searingly cold easterly building up with the chance of snow pushing in from the S / SW

C'mon the snow the cold is in place we just need the white magic!

EDIT: shucks looks like the system slips too far south but it stays cold with -8's right over my house - how thoughtful.

[Summer Sun]

t168 of ECM is determined to keep it cold

The uppers are miles apart from those of GFS at the same time

Edited March 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[Captain Shortwave]

Cold returns from the East

[Purga]

Blimey the -8's are pushing back into the east again

It looks like a further supply of very cold uppers are pushing in from the east with better orientation of the blocking HP than with the 0z which tilted the flow SE and eventually cut off the cold.

Would be great if the LP's to the south could push north a bit - we need the moisture / instability now for the excitement.to begin.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Purga

[Summer Sun]

Coldest uppers starting to leave via the south

[Purga]

Very cold uppers heading into France so a decent supply of cold will be available to the east - just wish the snow would get a chance

Now with a SE flow and an attack from the SW we would be in business - but we need some luck!

Looks tricky and the Atlantic mega Low needs to disrupt

At least the pressure still remains high to the N / NW - not ideal but any mild up won't be excessive.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Purga

[SE Blizzards]

Coldest uppers starting to leave via the south

Yes, -6 / -8 uppers being replaced by -4 uppers! Heatwave alert?

Edited March 27, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

T240

[Purga]

Actually the WZ version of ECM 12z looks better

Block holding up and being nicely supported by the LP over the Baltic states.

[Man With Beard]

T240

TBH Gavin, the low to the west looks like another undercutter - if so, back to square 1!

[rory o gorman]

Overall the ECM is very cold for the time of year and little snow beyond 48 hrs yes -6/8 upper can fall as snow this time of the year but day time radiant heating will cause melting and increasingly sleet with less dept overall . Plus heights build well on the run and smells of an inversion at 850 mb from 72 hrs plus and with a slack flow all i see is boring cloudy cold with 3/4c maxes for most of the run. where anyone see excitement in this is beyond me...

[Lincslad]

I do feel sorry for those who live along the east coast this spring and early summer following this extended cold spell.. When, eventually, conditions do warm up, there will be a horrendous amount of sea mist/fog and low cloud plag

uing eastern areas everytime the wind is from an easterly

direction thanks to those North Sea temperatures being so subdued. Given synoptic patterns that could be a very frequent occurrence indeed, more so than normal.

Potentially, but the sea temps are not that difference to previous years. This is generally the coldest the N Sea gets. Mid may will see those sea temps slowly rise.

[bluearmy]

Why look for snow. We have opportunities to break temp records with the low sst's to our east. I thought most were here to see extremes. It rarely gets better than this from that perspective. Surely?

[Gustywind]

It would be nice to see this march beat march 62 in terms of cet, will be touch and go I reckon. After that though and I'd like to see a march 47 evolution with strong Atlantic fronts encroaching ever further north bringing heavy snow, blizzards and then much milder weather into the 2nd week of April. Unfortunately none of tonight's runs are keen to oblige me so we stay stuck in a very cold easterly airstream for the foreseeable with the fronts continuing to pass well to the south if the ECM is right.

[Continental Climate]

good lord when is the cold going to relent? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif. Deffo not for another week going by this evenings output. It feels like i havent seen the sun in weeks!!!

[phil nw.]

Why look for snow. We have opportunities to break temp records with the low sst's to our east. I thought most were here to see extremes. It rarely gets better than this from that perspective. Surely?

Yes i understand where you are coming from Nick.

We are powerless to hasten the arrival of Spring warmth so in the meantime i find this current pattern so interesting from the pov of the persistence of this cold block.

The longevity of this spell is notable notwithstanding the March CET mean is -2.4C against the average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It looks like March will continue well below normal too.