Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[tinybill]

TBH Gavin, the low to the west looks like another undercutter - if so, back to square 1!

Gavin i know you what mild we do but the earliest i can see it at the moment it deep f1 and that isApril 12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

[ANYWEATHER]

Potentially, but the sea temps are not that difference to previous years. This is generally the coldest the N Sea gets. Mid may will see those sea temps slowly rise.

The North Sea is about as cold as that sea will get,as you say,for model output well .may as well forget looking at any change in the days ahead, perhaps look at the models in two weeks and see what happens then, we may see something,well Springlike! Hurry Up.....

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the latest report on the 12z output from gFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for tonight Wednesday March 27th 2013.

All models show the cold spell well entrenched over the UK for the period until the end of Easter at least. With High pressure to the North and weak Low pressure to the South a rather slacker ENE flow will continue to blow over the UK with a ridge stretching South from the North for most of the weekend. the net result will be a mostly dry weekend, spare the odd wintry flurry or two but widespread night frosts with daytime temperatures a little higher than recently but still well below average for late March-early April with frosts continuing at night. The threat from anything moving up from the SW has diminished away now and is only likely to affect Cornwall on Good Friday.

GFS then shows High pressure over Scandinavia with a rather cold SE then East airflow through the rest of next week. With just a few scattered showers possible near the East Coast, mostly of rain by then it will still feel chilly in the strength of the wind, especially in the South where a lot of cloud cover persists. Through FI the winds remain largely between North and East as High pressure is maintained to the Northeast of the UK. Rather cold weather with large amounts of cloud on a raw East wind would persist before the high declines at the end of FI with a switch in wind direction to the SW with Atlantic mobility developing nationwide.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show the slow recovery of 850 upper temperatures to more average values over the next few weeks. there will be a fair amount of dry weather with rainfall amounts very small until the end of the run.

The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to flow well South of the UK for the next 7 days or so. There is a sign though that the flow will ridge North over the Atlantic later next week in response to the Azores High developing late next week.

UKMO for next Tuesday shows the cold pattern still very much in control of the UK weather with a ridge stretching South across the UK from the North. A lot of dry rather cold weather with some sunshine looks likely between a few wintry showers affecting Eastern areas at times.

GEM shows a cold ESE flow after Easter with low pressure very close to the SW bringing rain and in places snow as it moves slowly NE over Southern and Western areas on Tuesday.

ECM shows a strengthening of the cold East flow, especially in the South as we move out of Easter with some snow showers likely in the South and East over Tuesday and Wednesday as the pressure gradient increases over the UK between High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South. Towards the end of the run the cold theme persists especially towards the SE where further wintry flurries are just about possible in the slight NE drift here. high pressure over the NW will encourage brighter, less cold feeling days with widespread frost still at night. As day 10 approaches a collapsing ridge across the UK could usher in rain on a strong Southerly wind in the days that follow the expiry of the run.

In Summary there is little to suggest any major warming up of the weather on the output tonight until after the first week of April. the severity of the cold has subsided though now and whilst there may be some snow showers here and there over the period no widespread snow events now look likely. Winds will continue to drift or blow in from the East or NE for the most part with frosts widespread at night well into April.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Gibby

[SE Blizzards]

Predicted ECM 10 day uppers chart from today's 12Z

Zero uppers touching the north of Africa in April? I wonder when the last time that happened?

Compare that to the same time 2 years ago....

Unbelievable really.

This current cold spell surely has to match the cold spell of December 2010. Maybe not in deep cold like that event, but simply in terms of the time of year it has happened and the longevity of it. Cant remember the last time it even felt slightly mild.

When will it all end? That really is anyone's guess right now.

[stodge]

Evening all

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013032712/navgem-0-144.png?27-17

NAVGEM keeps things cold and settled. Possibly very frosty nights inland and a nagging breeze for the south.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2013032712/bom-0-144.png?12

BOM - not much different. If anything, drier and more settled (if at all possible). Better daytime temps but cold nights.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2013032712/J144-21.GIF?27-12

JMA keeps the HP well to the N or NE so the cold ESE'ly remains in place. Looking dry and settled.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013032712/gem-0-144.png?12

Well now, something of interest for the precipitation patrol though rain more than likely for most to low ground. Could be something significant for higher ground in Wales and possibly central southern England. A bit out on its own but early days.

[Carlrg]

There's probably more chance of getting your money back from the Bank of Cyprus than this coming to fruition but we live in hope.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=372&size=0

[Purga]

Why look for snow. We have opportunities to break temp records with the low sst's to our east. I thought most were here to see extremes. It rarely gets better than this from that perspective. Surely?

But if we get some decent snow the potential for record temps increases, particularly if we can get a good clear night after a decent fall of fresh snow + it's always brilliant to get snow and is a pity to waste the current fantastic synoptics and cold uppers only for it to be dry.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble for the first week of April

Next week won't be as cold as it has been but it will be a while yet before temperatures get above average

[bluearmy]

Yes i understand where you are coming from Nick.

We are powerless to hasten the arrival of Spring warmth so in the meantime i find this current pattern so interesting from the pov of the persistence of this cold block.

The longevity of this spell is notable notwithstanding the March CET mean is -2.4C against the average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

It looks like March will continue well below normal too.

Some stats off the cet thread on TWO if valid indicate that feb/march 13 will deliver some records re max cet returns. Thats what i'm here for. Fantastic to see history in the making!

Snow - whatever!

[Carlrg]

Cool on an evening but some of those 2m daytime temps from the beginning of April look possitively toasty. (relatively speaking).

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=8&carte=1

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ensemble for the first week of April

Next week won't be as cold as it has been but it will be a while yet before temperatures get above average

To be honest -4 uppers for a mean at day ten is pretty cold even in winter when you taking into account the differences you can get between the ensembles. Still looking cold for the foreseeable.

[Summer Sun]

The latest CFS is suggesting this blocking will shift in May

Edited March 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[That ECM]

What is remarkable IMO, is how long we have had and the output is suggesting we will still have, a wind direction with an e in it. NE. SE or just E. considering it is not the norm.

[snowking]

ECM ensembles tonight (these for Heathrow) showing max and mins:

Still nothing drastically mild, but less cold than this week perhaps.

Below is Tmax ECM ensemble box plot, with ECM Op (black) and GFS Op (Green) overlaid for comparison:

So a gradually less cold picture emerging, but still feeling really rather chilly I should imagine, and still the risk of overnight frost:

SK

Edited March 27, 2013 by snowking

[Purga]

Some stats off the cet thread on TWO if valid indicate that feb/march 13 will deliver some records re max cet returns. Thats what i'm here for. Fantastic to see history in the making!

Snow - whatever!

Yes, it will be great to break cold records and coming so soon after the record cold of Dec 2010 I'm wondering / hoping if this is ushering in a prolonged period of severe cold for the UK / NW Europe. Probably just wishful thinking to be fair but fascinating to see if it does evolve into a long term cool down. If this has anything to do with Global Warming then all I say is - BRING IT ON! Edited March 27, 2013 by Purga

[SE Blizzards]

The latest CFS is suggesting this blocking will shift next month

Next month is April is it not? Those charts are for May (the month after next)

Meanwhile....

Edited March 27, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

Sorry of the OT post but I found this April predictions video on the BBC world news channel very interesting it gives some data for the temperatures this Sunday and then the following Sunday and the UK remains under the blue colors (although not as deep a blue as this Sunday) right out at least April 7th

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21961844

Edited March 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[SE Blizzards]

Sorry of the OT post but I found this April predictions video on the BBC world news channel very interesting it gives some data for the temperatures this Sunday and then the following Sunday and the UK remains under the blue colors (although not as deep a blue as this Sunday) right out at least April 7th

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21961844

Wow, virtually the whole map is blue (below average) for a week on Sunday. I did however notice a tiny bit of yellow (slightly above average) around the Iceland area. Maybe would be a good idea for u to have a break there for a week or two?

Edited March 27, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[peterf]

Gav do you get out much?

[Summer Sun]

Gav do you get out much?

Not on a night no lol, plenty I can do outside but the weather is stopping me so until it improves your stuck with me more

Edited March 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not on a night no lol, plenty I can do outside but the weather is stopping me so until it improves your stuck with me more

Could be here a while. Looks like it could be a long spring. Well actually if it keeps like this a long winter and a non-existent spring

Still when the Azores high does bother to come back to Britain it will be welcomed with open arms and some lovely warmth

[Purga]

Sorry of the OT post but I found this April predictions video on the BBC world news channel very interesting it gives some data for the temperatures this Sunday and then the following Sunday and the UK remains under the blue colors (although not as deep a blue as this Sunday) right out at least April 7th

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21961844

Amazing stuff! Thanks for that Gavin very interesting and enthusiastically put over by Alex - a corker of a spell.

[Dean E]

Way out in FI, but if this was to verify, it would be the coldest uppers to spread South I have seen in April....

Nothing has changed this evening, the cold is loosening its grip slightly, but models are showing it flying back in after the weekend once again.

Shocking for April

SM

[Paul]

Can we try to keep it to the models in here please

[SE Blizzards]

April fools day brings -88 uppers into Northern England / Southern Scotland