Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[weather_it_will]

00z ECM is cold easterly all the way through.

[Snowman.]

00z ECM is cold easterly all the way through.

joy

[karlos1983]

This is getting rediculous now, it could take sometime to get out of this pattern, not even the GFS can default at the moment lol :-(

[Jonathan Lang]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if this easterly setup continues into the summer, will it be very warm and dry as Siberia warms up a bit?

[Average Joe]

This is getting rediculous now, it could take sometime to get out of this pattern, not even the GFS can default at the moment lol :-(

Hehe......it's already taken sometime, don't know about taking!! :-)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This is getting rediculous now, it could take sometime to get out of this pattern, not even the GFS can default at the moment lol :-(

its a great pattern, snow is great, dry for foreseeable future, great outlook,

[Purga]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if this easterly setup continues into the summer, will it be very warm and dry as Siberia warms up a bit?

If this type of setup occurs it will take a very long time. Cold Arctic air flows south westwards to renew the cold pool over Europe.

Even in high summer it would be cool!

[Jonathan Lang]

If this type of setup occurs it will take a very long time. Cold Arctic air flows south westwards to renew the cold pool over Europe.

Even in high summer it would be cool!

Now that would be typical for a british summer wouldnt it! Always some reason why its cool! Anyway thanks for the correction.

[mushymanrob]

If this type of setup occurs it will take a very long time. Cold Arctic air flows south westwards to renew the cold pool over Europe.

Even in high summer it would be cool!

think it would warm up by the time it got here tbh, could get good air quality too... i do remember strong northeasterlies in the mid 80's with blue skies, sunshine and 28c. but i dont know the scource of the air.

not much change this morning, but what might be crucial is the centre of next weeks expected high just to our north, which this morning is centred east of north. this could allow less cold air further east so southwestern areas might just get more reasonable temps. slacker winds too (except in the sw) , so in any sun it wont feel too bad.

bitter winds and snow showers easing over the next few days, less cold sunday onwards with some signes over a week away (so fi) that some sort of less cold air might just show. pretty dry though, which is possibly the only positive from these runs.

Edited March 27, 2013 by mushymanrob

[kent]

Hopefully by Easter monday with the winds progged to be more SE it will feel less cold so some comfort there. In the interim this cold easterly continues and with the north sea probably being to cold to accentuate any serious convection it looks predominately dry for most. The SW again may have to suffer rain from the low flirting with the southern coast line with snow over higher ground by Friday. All in all a grey miserable outlook. Come on spring Ive had enough.

[UV-RAY]

Personally I'm enjoying this cold spell but what worries me is when we see a change to the upstream pattern, will it be replaced with a dry and warm high or something far more unsettled which could end up eating away a large chunk of the Summer as well. These patterns over the last few years tend to become blocked for 2-3 months, so any change in the longwave pattern that follows will probably stick around for some time, fingers crossed it's the dry and warm high we see.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Man With Beard]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if this easterly setup continues into the summer, will it be very warm and dry as Siberia warms up a bit?

I think it would depend in part on how strong the flow is. A strong north-easterly won't be that warm at any time - if it's a gentle north-easterly though, book your holidays in the west country, it'll be dry and warm there, low to mid 20s ... so to keep on topic, the weather pattern looks good for the South West holiday trade if it persists into July

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report from the 00z output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Wednesday March 27th 2013.

All models show the cold Easterly flow remaining well established over the UK as High pressure stays to the North and Low pressure remains to the SW or South. A ridge will develop Southwards over the UK over the Easter weekend. All areas will stay cold and bright and though a lot of dry weather will continue to be found some snow flurries will continue at times. Frosts will persist overnight but there may be rather more in the way of sunshine by day lifting temperatures a little. The far SW may become more generally cloudy on Friday for a time with some light rain or sleet over Cornwall.

GFS then takes us through next week with the Easterly flow remaining though with the winds tilting more SE for a time it will be slightly less cold. Late in the week things look like turning slightly colder again as a strong East flow re-establishes itself in response to a squeeze of isobars from Low pressure over France and an intense Scandinavian Anticyclone. Some wintry showers could be blown in from the East at this juncture. Through the rest of FI the weather remains rather cold with winds from between North and East with the most significant weather pointer at this range is the continuing risk of frost at night through mostly dry conditions bar the odd shower.

The GFS Ensembles show rather colder than average conditions for some time yet with a good deal of spread between members from as early as Easter onward. Precipitation amounts are generally quite small through the run and more indicative of showers rather than persistent rainfall.

The Jet Stream shows the flow ridging slightly North as we move towards Easter before being pulled back South again next week to flow across Spain and Southern Europe still one week from now.

UKMO for the post Easter period shows cold weather well locked in over the UK with High pressure to the North and a Low pressure belt to the South maintaining cold winds from Scandinavia over the UK with frosts at night and scattered wintry showers by day.

GEM shows a strong Easterly flow throughout it's extended outlook for next week and with Low pressure progged rather closer to the South at times the risk of more prolonged rain or sleet is rather greater from this model with the driest and brightest weather further North. It would remain very chilly everywhere though.

ECM finally shows rather cold East winds too next week with the High pressure block to the North and Northeast refusing to budge. There would be a lot of chilly breezy weather with some scattered showers at times, mostly of rain by then away from the higher hills in the North.

In Summary today the broad scale pattern remains unchanged over the next week or so with the winds staying from an Easterly point throughout hence the reason why temperatures are likely to stay suppressed. It should slowly become less cold on the thermometer, sufficiently so to turn any showers that fall from sleet or snow to rain or perhaps sleet with time though this doesn't rule out the ever present risk of overnight frosts as and when skies clear. There is still no real sign of a pattern break in the time frame of this morning's output so below average temperature conditions will remain the biggest feature of the coming 10-14 days weather.

[TEITS]

Im actually disappointed with the output and have been these past few days. For obvious reasons snowfall is becoming more unlikely but a flow from the E regardless of upper temps is going to result in cold temps. This is especially true this year due to the below average SSTs across the N Sea.

http://weather.unisy...ce/sst_anom.gif

Amazing actually looking at the vast number of cold anomalies around the world.

Personally I would love a spell of weather with temps of around 15C but this does not look like happening anytime soon!

Edited March 27, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[joggs]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if this easterly setup continues into the summer, will it be very warm and dry as Siberia warms up a bit? No just as the heat will hit us the atlantic will power up lol

[Guest pjl20101]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if this easterly setup continues into the summer, will it be very warm and dry as Siberia warms up a bit?

Your best models to look at are the CFS and the BCC to notice whether any warmth for the summer is coming and how much warmth you are gonna get.

I looked on the CFS at Meteociel and it looked like a colder, but dryer than average month for next month. Must say that although this march has been much colder than average its also been pretty interesting too.

[Summer Sun]

On a positive note this morning again temperatures should rise slightly from later this weekend for many with the south getting to the dizzy heights of 7c

Easter Monday see's highs ranging from 6c to 8c for England and Wales

Tuesday see's highs ranging from 5c to 9c

Wednesday again see's highs ranging from 6c to 8c with maybe 9c somewhere

Precipitation next week will be very low for all so the risk of snow obviously becomes extremely low as well

Temperatures remain below normal but a slightly recovery will be welcomed by many

[Purga]

Are we entering an era of the unmovable North Westerly displaced Bartlett?

[Yarmy]

Im actually disappointed with the output and have been these past few days. For obvious reasons snowfall is becoming more unlikely but a flow from the E regardless of upper temps is going to result in cold temps. This is especially true this year due to the below average SSTs across the N Sea.

http://weather.unisy...ce/sst_anom.gif

Amazing actually looking at the vast number of cold anomalies around the world.

Personally I would love a spell of weather with temps of around 15C but this does not look like happening anytime soon!

I don't like those SST charts because the colour coding is so weird. The pale blue is actually a slightly positive anomaly (although with the uncertainty error it's probably best described as neutral) and the purples are repeated as both an extremely negative anomaly and a hyper positive anomaly!

[Purga]

144hrs on GFS 06z looking intersting for the south

Trouble is it could be marginal

[Frank Trough]

144hrs on GFS 06z looking intersting for the south

Trouble is it could be marginal

yep. Rain on the coast without a doubt. But all pointless because it's the 06z and won't verify. The only good thing about the pointless easterlies is that at least they are being shown as predominantly dry - so despite the fact it is a milder run for the south and south and south west it wouldn't be very nice at all. So i'm happy for it not to verify.

The output at present is purga-tory as far as i'm concerned.

..and the ice age endeth on the 06z....it must occasionally be right just through luck surely? throw enough darts and all that....

Edited March 27, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[CongletonHeat]

This is going to happen 100% definitely positively.

[Purga]

This is going to happen 100% definitely positively.

Still frosty though

[Mark Neal.]

Well it appears that Easterlies are the new westerlies for the UK!

Just a quick question will this very cold weather, affect temperatures in the summer, just the sea around us is alot colder than usual especially for mid spring?! Thanks..

[Captain Shortwave]

This is going to happen 100% definitely positively.

The depressing thing is that it would still be below average as all the warm uppers have been well and truly banished to the tropics. Even at the end of the run, we are still around 0 degree uppers and they spread down to cover most of France and Spain too.