Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[picog]

Is there any graph or statistics to show how the jet stream has behaved over the last 4-5 years?

It seems that there has been a marked strengthening and shift south with little occurence of a strong northerly arm certainly compared to the years before say 2009.

Anomaly charts or some such data would be interesting if such info exists?

Didn't we have a strong northerly tracking jet when we had the milder, wet spells in December and January this winter? I thought it had only gone properly south in February.

[chris55]

Well with all this cold around and pretty much zero snowfall I am still patiently waiting for an Atlantic attack from the south west, the weekends attempt looks to have failed (at this stage) but then we have another go into next week as the ECM mean (and UKMO 144 charts) shows. Looks a little tenuous at this stage though.

[Harsh Climate]

Esmebles remaining really quite cold throughout

Certainly don't see any ending to our cold spell anytime soon. Maybe becoming less cold but no real mild in sight.

[-uksnow-]

This time the ECM Birmingham ensemble is updated and there isn't much change from my post on the last page

A slow but steady rise from next week if nothing else we are going the right direction

From April 1st to April 9th the average high is 7c to 10c (compared to 3c to 5c from today till Easter Sunday) still below the average of around 12c but better than the past 2 weeks

The average low increases as well from April 1st to April 9th the average low is 0c rising to 3c the average is 4c (compared to a low of -3c on the 28th)

Rainfall is running at below or bang on average till April 5th even after this it only gets 1mm above average for a few days before falling to average again on the 9th

So this bitter cold is on its final legs now with a relaxation in temperatures from next Monday and after what we've had lately many will be more than happy to see this rise even though its still below average given any sunshine it would feel pleasant providing the winds fall light

Bitter cold on its last legs?!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=250&ext=1&y=40&run=6&runpara=0

Ens say differently, mean doesnt get above -5 850hpa until the 5th of April!

[SE Blizzards]

Bitter cold on its last legs?!

http://modeles.meteo...run=6&runpara=0

Ens say differently, mean doesnt get above -5 850hpa until the 5th of April!

Yep, the mild weather keeps getting pushed back and back and back.... and back!

Ens look more like depths of winter rather than 4 weeks into spring with the mean not rising above -2/-3 all the way to the bitter end (no pun intended).

Edited March 26, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[SnowObsessor90]

Esmebles remaining really quite cold throughout

Certainly don't see any ending to our cold spell anytime soon. Maybe becoming less cold but no real mild in sight.

Yup of course you can't rule out sudden flips at any given moment but if things continue at this rate then people would be grateful for a gradual warm up to just wet and cool conditions ala April tells it's own story really.

Edited March 26, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[pip22]

eh?... the meterological spring is march 1st - may 31st, = summers two months away!

according to the diary, spring is march 21st - june 21st (equinox - solstice) = summers 12 weeks away!

may isnt summer

well the last few mays we had a few weeks of lovely warm sunny weather and no doubt it prob will have few weeks of lovely warm sunny weather. May is the summer month like it or not. But June, July and August just like a past few years before is pretty much a wet season. The best months of sunny warm/hot weather is usually actually in April, May, September and maybe even October.

Example: October 2011 unseasonable heatwave, that is Summer, just like Winter just now. Atleast just in my view.

Edited March 26, 2013 by pip22

[mushymanrob]

This time the ECM Birmingham ensemble is updated and there isn't much change from my post on the last page

A slow but steady rise from next week if nothing else we are going the right direction

From April 1st to April 9th the average high is 7c to 10c (compared to 3c to 5c from today till Easter Sunday) still below the average of around 12c but better than the past 2 weeks

The average low increases as well from April 1st to April 9th the average low is 0c rising to 3c the average is 4c (compared to a low of -3c on the 28th)

Rainfall is running at below or bang on average till April 5th even after this it only gets 1mm above average for a few days before falling to average again on the 9th

So this bitter cold is on its final legs now with a relaxation in temperatures from next Monday and after what we've had lately many will be more than happy to see this rise even though its still below average given any sunshine it would feel pleasant providing the winds fall light

love you to be right gavin, but i wouldnt write off the cold as 'being on its last legs' just yet.... i agree that its looking like the severity of cold will ease, but we are far from safe yet.... and the ukmo suggests the gfs is not going to be right.

[mushymanrob]

well the last few mays we had a few weeks of lovely warm sunny weather and no doubt it prob will have few weeks of lovely warm sunny weather. May is the summer month like it or not. But June, July and August just like a past few years before is pretty much a wet season. The best months of sunny warm/hot weather is usually actually in April, May, September and maybe even October.

.... but 'summer' isnt a weather type, its a season. if it was a weather type summer was late march last year! :lol:

ive listed the official definitions of summer, its up to you whether you accept them or not

[Summer Sun]

According to GFS this morning most places should see temperatures of 5c to 7c on Easter Monday for England and Wales

A sharp frost into Tuesday leads to another day of highs ranging from 5c to 8c for England and Wales with maybe even 9c for a few spots in the south

Again Wednesday starts frosty after which temperatures rise to around 7c again UK wide

Now today's met office outlook says

Towards the end of the period (April 9th it goes to), there are signs that some more unsettled and less cold weather may start to push in from the west, but making slow progress eastwards.

So its possible that this blocking could start to ease towards the end of the first week of April allowing lows to track across slowly

Edited March 26, 2013 by Gavin.

[Tim Bland]

And when that low accross Scotland tracks east it will set up a northerly!

[Captain Shortwave]

And when that low accross Scotland tracks east it will set up a northerly!

Haha yet, lets quote an end of fi chart for mild even though the result would be a completely blocked atlantic and possibly a Greenland high with a northerly flow behind the low.

Must resist posting straw related picture

[mushymanrob]

And when that low accross Scotland tracks east it will set up a northerly!

true, but thats the gfs in deep fi, so its highly unlikely to varify

[Tim Bland]

Starting from the 10th April the Met-office say this..

.. "Much of the UK is likely to start cold, with a fair amount of dry weather, although further snowfall is possible"

So I don't think the mild lovers should be using the met-office as a straw for spring weather!

[Peejayem]

tim, i would hardly class anyone not wanting snow in mid april as a "mild lover"!

[itsnowjoke]

So the cool weather is set to continue and at this rate we will have harldly any Spring left.

Theres always the wet season to look forward to.(Summer).

This weather is proper confusing my plants.

[andymusic]

So the cool weather is set to continue and at this rate we will have harldly any Spring left.

Theres always the wet season to look forward to.(Summer).

This weather is proper confusing my plants.

we are turning into the tundra slowly - mini ice age is upon us!

[pip22]

we are turning into the tundra slowly - mini ice age is upon us!

Maybe we could start having frost fairs on the River Thames if its keeps up. Edited March 26, 2013 by pip22

[itsnowjoke]

we are turning into the tundra slowly - mini ice age is upon us!

crazy isnt it im currently watching it snow a little as im typing half an hour ago sunny

[mushymanrob]

Starting from the 10th April the Met-office say this..

.. "Much of the UK is likely to start cold, with a fair amount of dry weather, although further snowfall is possible"

So I don't think the mild lovers should be using the met-office as a straw for spring weather!

but thats basically whats been said on here, by many. we know theres no sign of mild, just less cold. thats how it is.

[be cause]

.... but 'summer' isnt a weather type, its a season. if it was a weather type summer was late march last year!

ive listed the official definitions of summer, its up to you whether you accept them or not

and if 21st June is mid-summer's day .... May is more summer than August ..LOL

[Radiating Dendrite]

and if 21st June is mid-summer's day .... May is more summer than August ..LOL

The 21st is the Summer Solstice, when the sun is at its highest point in the sky.

Mushy has clearly explained what is fairly obvious to those who went to school from an early age, summer as a season is June, July and August despite what the weather is.

Now...........any chance we can put this to bed and get back to the models

[iggy]

spring in siberia)

Edited March 26, 2013 by iggy

[Coast]

Now...........any chance we can put this to bed and get back to the models

Difficult it seems....

Weather specific to your region: http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

The current cold snap and how it affects different folk:

Discussion about the current Spring weather:

Just generally moaning about stuff:

[Troubleatmill]

P11 ensemble....if only!! shows where we are to be looking way way in 'not a chance land' for anything remotely warm & bunny and bouncing lambs like weather!

Edited March 26, 2013 by tempestas