Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[Craigers]

Wouldn't this mornings ukmo chart bring some sort of a streamer!?

[Lynxus]

Wouldn't this mornings ukmo chart bring some sort of a streamer!?

[Summer Sun]

Well GFS maintains its slow rise in uppers next week so we should start to see a relaxation in temperatures compared to the past few weeks but still below normal for the time of year

The Birmingham ECM ensemble shows the average temperature from April 1st to April 8th running from 7c to 9c compared to 2c to 5c from today till Saturday

The minimum temperature also increases slightly from a low of -5c on Thursday and Friday to an average of 0c to +3c from April 1st to April 8th the average low for the time of year is 4c

A slightly rise is temperatures is looking fairly likely now for net week

Just to add precipitation starts below average then goes to just about bang on average

Edited March 26, 2013 by Gavin.

[Hurricane Buckley]

My thinking is we'll see a warming over weeks in April, but nothing to warm with some more attacks from the Atlantic, don't buy the EC 32 outlook.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I also think we will see a gradual warming to something more akin to average.

Given the time of year, we should see a natural warming no matter what the synoptics anyway.

I tell you something, 10c and sunshine is going to feel like being in the Bahamas compared to what we currently have!

Edited March 26, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[snowking]

Well GFS maintains its slow rise in uppers next week so we should start to see a relaxation in temperatures compared to the past few weeks but still below normal for the time of year

The Birmingham ECM ensemble shows the average temperature from April 1st to April 8th running from 7c to 9c compared to 2c to 5c from today till Saturday

The minimum temperature also increases slightly from a low of -5c on Thursday and Friday to an average of 0c to +3c from April 1st to April 8th the average low for the time of year is 4c

A slightly rise is temperatures is looking fairly likely now for net week

Those are still yesterday's 12z

I must say having seen 3 of the previous 4 ECM det runs promoting something less cold I had fully expected to wake up to similar this morning, but the 0z ECM much colder through to T240 (with a snow event for some around t168/192) this morning.

And looking at the 0z ensembles (sorry I'm on phone so I'm I able to post the) there's been no swing toward milder, with the control and op both sitting right on the mean, with very little rise of significance in temperature

Cold persists - Thursday still looking potentially interesting for snow shower development (especially when you compare the profiles for today in comparison to Thursday, and look at the shower development so far in the north today!)

SK

[karlos1983]

Wouldn't this mornings ukmo chart bring some sort of a streamer!?

Oh don't start that again lol

[SMU]

The UKMO Raw 144 ^^ is indeed very wintry & cold- with widespread chances of snow & frontal snow moving into the SW-

uppers ~ -8c. THicknesses around 525 at a quick glance.

S

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the 6z GFS doesn't really bring the front into the SW at the weekend , but by the end of the week it does seem to want to carry the East coast showers right across to the West of the country .. And on another note , isn't this now the longest period in many years where we have kept 850's of -10 across the country ... I remember we saying 3 days of -10's at the end of Feb were amazing , were now very nearly in April.

[Purga]

Good runs again and a strong cold one from the gfs 06z with a hint again of snow next week

Also, for those of you fed up with the cold easterly regime - How about hints of a Northerly building in far FI

Certainly nothing at all 'warm' in the forseeable let alone reliable time frame.

[Kentspur]

No end in sight as the powerful block continues to drive low pressure to the south under us, despite the forecast of only isolated showers effecting mainly eastward facing coasts its actually been snowing hard here this morning at times, with at least another cm of fresh snow in the last hour. This winter and spring I would guess that I’ve seen more days with snow falling than the last five years combined, include Dec 2010 witch really didn’t produce much here.

Funny you say that as December 2010 we had about 17inches of snow around here and yet we've only had to 4inch falls since- one last February and one in January this year- really missed out in our little corner i would advise those who don't like snow to move here

Edited March 26, 2013 by Kentspur

[Purga]

Funny you say that as December 2010 we had about 17inches of snow around here and yet we've only had to 4inch falls since- one last February and one in January this year- really missed out in our little corner i would advise those who don't like snow to move here

And when it does snow in your area it causes mayhem because it's so rare!

Boys arrested over Dartford snow riot

LOL

[Fred Sykes]

Good runs again and a strong cold one from the gfs 06z with a hint again of snow next week

Also, for those of you fed up with the cold easterly regime - How about hints of a Northerly building in far FI

Certainly nothing at all 'warm' in the forseeable let alone reliable time frame.

Is that snow in North Arica?!!

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear...Someone's gone and washed all the writing off the wall...

[AWD]

EC Det much more aligned with the EC ens this morning;

A much slower route to something less cold likely than previous EC Det outcomes, but less cold it does look like becoming as we go through April, as we would realistically expect.

[SMU]

remember the ECM ENS for debilt could be showing a more onshore flow from the NNE through the period which will have less moderating influence over the UK-

S

[pip22]

We only have a few weeks left of spring and then its Summer time in May. yet we still in the midst of a cold spell. No spring is pretty unusual in this part of world.

Edited March 26, 2013 by pip22

[tinybill]

We only have a few weeks left of spring and then its Summer time in May.

if we get a summer at this rate our rainy season due soon !!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Think the GFS lately has been getting it's shower distribution wrong right down to t-0 It currently shows widespread showers in the South , migrating SW to wards the Evening , but in reality there all in Northern England and Scotland.

[Purga]

Is there any graph or statistics to show how the jet stream has behaved over the last 4-5 years?

It seems that there has been a marked strengthening and shift south with little occurence of a strong northerly arm certainly compared to the years before say 2009.

Anomaly charts or some such data would be interesting if such info exists?

[mushymanrob]

We only have a few weeks left of spring and then its Summer time in May. yet we still in the midst of a cold spell. No spring is pretty unusual in this part of world.

eh?... the meterological spring is march 1st - may 31st, = summers two months away!

according to the diary, spring is march 21st - june 21st (equinox - solstice) = summers 12 weeks away!

may isnt summer

[mushymanrob]

i dont think i want to see this materialise, (although it might be preferable to current conditions temp wise).

this is the classic chart for dull cold overcast skies off the north sea. ok, the west might be ok and northwest scotland could be very warm. but this chart brings a dull stratus covering, cold, bleak. it burns back from the west , hence the west can end up pretty sunny and warm, to reveal a pleasantly warm afternoon. the problem is when will the cloud break? it can stick for most of the day, it can burn back mid morning, (location a factor). we had charts like this in april 1974, almost identical.

it will be dry, and a drying out is favoured by many. (apart from some drizzle).

Edited March 26, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Summer Sun]

This time the ECM Birmingham ensemble is updated and there isn't much change from my post on the last page

A slow but steady rise from next week if nothing else we are going the right direction

From April 1st to April 9th the average high is 7c to 10c (compared to 3c to 5c from today till Easter Sunday) still below the average of around 12c but better than the past 2 weeks

The average low increases as well from April 1st to April 9th the average low is 0c rising to 3c the average is 4c (compared to a low of -3c on the 28th)

Rainfall is running at below or bang on average till April 5th even after this it only gets 1mm above average for a few days before falling to average again on the 9th

So this bitter cold is on its final legs now with a relaxation in temperatures from next Monday and after what we've had lately many will be more than happy to see this rise even though its still below average given any sunshine it would feel pleasant providing the winds fall light

[SnowObsessor90]

Is there some problem with the ECM updating on net weather?, it's just that shows mild whilst whilst apparently according to some it's actually colder?

[Man With Beard]

The South West snow chances not so good on GFS/ECM operational runs this morning - but many other charts still going for it (NAVGEM and many ECM ENS members, for example). I think fronts will eventually make it but if you like snow and live in the South West you really want a front to push in sooner rather than later while temps are at their coldest - a frontal push by Sunday may be a high ground only affair - same could be said for coastal areas all over the south. Other areas of southern UK - I think one of the attacks will get through eventually - and more snow