Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[phil nw.]

On and on and on and on....

Today: http://modeles.meteo.../gfs-0-6.png?12

GFS T+192: http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-192.png?12

Anyone want to punt on a bid for the coldest Spring on record? I think this year has an excellent chance.

Certainly this current setup has a chance for being one of the longest cold spells in Spring Paul.

No sign of anything from the Atlantic coming this far north for Easter week at least.

The energy going well south and the UK sat under very cold uppers on Easter Sunday.

It looks like a generally dry and cold period for us with night frosts and suppressed daytime max`s for a good while yet.

All the changeable Springlike warmer conditions seemed destined for S.Europe for now.

[mushymanrob]

The problem with these minimum temperature is that they were being shown for the last few days, and didn't materialize, so it's doubtful they'd occur.. and also once maximas rebound to around 7-8C it's unlikely it'll fall to -5C anyway unless you're in a frost hollow - the nights are simple not long enough anymore.

But looking at the pattern, if indeed a northerly does occur after it could be there for a while, and then of course back to an easterly (northeasterly), as had happened in the past. Generally I can't see any hope of getting to the seasonal norm (which for early April is around 11-13C), for a long time..possibly into May. There's also no guarantee of course that staying in the same pattern as we have now will drag warm air in over time, certainly there's as much chance we maintain this well below average outlook for a while. Not that I'm championing what the models show, but what other option is there at the moment - there just isn't one to be honest.

fully agree, these patterns seldom just disappear, we might lose the worst of the cold by the weekend, it might even become mild at some point In the future, (not on the current runs), but until theres a substantial shift with that block... and its likely to modify both in its central position and waxing and waneing in intensity.. the cold will be always present nearby and will effect our weather.

it wouldnt surprise me if the effects of this block lasted well into may, or june, it did in 75, 79, 83. (although im not sure without checking the nature of the pattern in 79 and 83, i know the springs were cool/cold. 75 was characterised by a block to our west).

i might prefer mild, but you cant accuse me of mild ramping!

Edited March 26, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Jan 87]

Yes its looking like a horror show for those wanting some warmth.

Never thought I'd see the day when that could be posted on a UK weather forum

[Summer Sun]

Well not too bad from GFS tonight at least we do see temperatures get to a day time low of around 6c for many next week in England and wales with some southern spots hitting 8c as early as Tuesday

Then In FI we have the mild tease back again

With a deep low tracking to the UK

Edited March 26, 2013 by Gavin.

[SE Blizzards]

Well not too bad from GFS tonight at least we do see temperatures get to a day time low of around 6c for many next week in England and wales with some southern spots hitting 8c as early as Tuesday

Then In FI we have the mild tease back again

Trouble is gavin, that mild tease has been showing in FI since sometime last year!

Edited March 26, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[karlos1983]

Well not too bad from GFS tonight at least we do see temperatures get to a day time low of around 6c for many next week in England and wales with some southern spots hitting 8c as early as Tuesday

Then In FI we have the mild tease back again

With a deep low tracking to the UK

Currently I would put FI at +120 max! I admire your optimism Gav, it's similar to us coldies chasing deep cold in winter (when we should be) when in reality we all know the chances of those charts verifying are fairly slim. I fear the same for the charts you've posted!

[Summer Sun]

Trouble is gavin, that mild tease has been showing in FI since sometime last year!

I know one of these months or years it may be right

Edited March 26, 2013 by Gavin.

[Purga]

More substantial snow pushing in from the SE next week ? http://www.meteociel...2&code=0&mode=2

Rain in the SE annoyingly - well at least it won't be mild.

UKMO shows the Thursday feature too far south but we might just get a clip on the south coast

Plenty cold enough though

Interested to hear what METO think (Ian F)- seems from their updates that it's mostly dry and cold for the foreseeable. Shower activity hopefully after the weekend

[Tim Bland]

The ukmo is like the day after tommorow!

Why? Looks cold and dry with a few snow flurries in the east. Perhaps some sleet into the far SW.. I won't be burning books in the library just yet!

Personally I'm a snow lover not really a cold lover per se. Little of interest snow wise as far as I can see

[SE Blizzards]

Another Cold set of Ens coming up...

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&ech=144

There's just no end in sight.

This mean chart at 240h says it all really.

Edited March 26, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

The latest ECM monthly ensemble for Birmingham maintains the dry theme well into April

Solid agreement from the GFS short London ensemble to keep temperatures and rainfall below average (this goes as far as April 3rd)

Edited March 26, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Solid agreement from the GFS short London ensemble to keep temperatures and rainfall below average (this goes as far as April 3rd)

[Buzzit]

Hi all - I am doing a 'nasty evil' pattern match to 1917 : which I believe to be broadly similar synoptics to current charts. So I expect a very cold April but it does not mean we will follow 1917 all the way throughout the year as I am not that sort of person...

March 29

April 5

[itsnowjoke]

A least our easter eggs wont melt SORRY TEAM

Edited March 26, 2013 by itsnowjoke

[weather_it_will]

All GEFS members 850 temps below -5°C upto 1st April, then most below 0°C until the 3rd April in the high resolution.

And no real change up to 11th April.

Edited March 26, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[Suburban Streamer]

Never thought I'd see the day when that could be posted on a UK weather forum

apart from every summer!

Edited March 26, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Purga]

Anyway - white Christmas anyone?

He, he ....

[Summer Sun]

12z ensembles remain cold and dry tonight right through the first week of April

[Nimbus Nix]

Interesting JAMSTEC forecast for Spring I've just noticed:

And with a bitterly cold March, April/May would have to be very warm!

Shame they're probably wrong...

[-uksnow-]

Not sure if already posted but..

Updated 72hr fax

Compared to this mornings 84hr (for same time period)

Ditched the idea of the triple point and instead have two seperate fronts, hard to tell whether these may swing enough for a dusting, have to wait and see, but interesting none the less.

Also the trough Ian commented on yesterday about not having much support is back, and is flirting with the far SE Thursday lunchtime

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interesting JAMSTEC forecast for Spring I've just noticed:

And with a bitterly cold March, April/May would have to be very warm!

Shame they're probably wrong...

I can't actually believe people place more stock in this model than the CFS. Plus as John Holmes has pointed out in another thread, it's designed for the seas rather than the land masses.

[-uksnow-]

Is this condusive of a Thames Streamer?

[Summer Sun]

A cold Easter Sunday for all

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM makes the least out of the lower heights over Scandinavia. Cold and dry sums it up with hard frosts inland and perhaps scattered wintry showers down north sea coasts over the Easter weekend.

[-uksnow-]

Under she goes...

Amazing.