Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[rory o gorman]

GFS showing a slow warm up next week better breakdown of heights to the north

[Gustywind]

UKMO is a stunning EASTERly run start to finish, with a series of channel lows setting up and running through northern France from end of this week.

[shaky]

Ukmo is out if this world!!gfs is good!!and ecm is good and at 144 hours its a lot colder than the 12z!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm not buying it despite Ian's post. Just not enough support for a breakdown before end of March and even if MOGREPS is considered more reliable it is still only a 3rd of the ensembles going for less cold air getting as far as the Midlands - hardly conclusive.

Still, tomorrow is another day and if ECM persists I might raise my hopes a little of something nearer the average reaching Manchester by April

It has to be treated with caution as remember Ian tweeted and forecast SW'ly regime returning in early Feb....and we are still waiting and this winter has caught EVERYONE out one way or another. No doubt the breakdown and change will come but models say not this side of Easter to any real breakdown .

BFTP

Edited March 26, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Polar Maritime]

For the last day of March, -9/10 uppers over the Midlands.

Edited March 26, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[shaky]

Out of this world in what way? I doubt the farmers who currently have sheep and lambs buried under the snow would agree if it's snow and cold you mean.

Yup i mean for snow and cold the synoptics are amazing from all the models!!but yeh i do feel sorry for the poor lambs and sheeps they must be very confused right now thinking what the hells going on where has spring ran off to!!

For the last day of March, -9/10 uppers over the Midlands.

Dont be surprisd to see these synoptics over the next few years again mate!!i have just had 3 ice days in a row in leicester!!doubt we gona get one today!!

[karlos1983]

Out of this world in what way? I doubt the farmers who currently have sheep and lambs buried under the snow would agree if it's snow and cold you mean.

Unfortunately the weather will do what it does. I'm fairly certain nobody in here wants sheep to die or farmers to suffer, along with anything or anyone else for that matter. But we enjoy the weather extremes and shouldn't be chastised for that, What will be will be sadly. It's down to authorities to warn people, personally last week I think Red warnings should have been issued. But there you go.

Edited March 26, 2013 by karlos1983

[Mr Frost]

Out of this world in what way? I doubt the farmers who currently have sheep and lambs buried under the snow would agree if it's snow and cold you mean.

Scorcher if it is upsetting you so much go grab a shovel and help out. Fed up reading this nonsense in the model output discussion thread.

The cold is here to stay for another 7 days at least. (Chance of snow also)

I for one will be enjoying every minute of it.

[shaky]

Scorcher if it is upsetting you so much go grab a shovel and help out. Fed up reading this nonsense in the model output discussion thread.

The cold is here to stay for another 7 days at least. (Chance of snow also)

I for one will be enjoying every minute of it.

Damn right!!

[Purga]

Sheep & lambs can survive under snow often up to 2 weeks, it's a good insulator! It's a natural adaptation to cope with snow that has diminished in recent mild winters but can re-assume.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6951629/Snow-stories-sheep-have-forgotten-how-to-cope-with-snow.html

The snow is hardly going to last 2 weeks looking at the synoptics this morning, colder then average but slowly warming.

The Op was definately a lone mild solution.

[TonyH]

Yup i mean for snow and cold the synoptics are amazing from all the models!!but yeh i do feel sorry for the poor lambs and sheeps they must be very confused right now thinking what the hells going on where has spring ran off to!!

Dont be surprisd to see these synoptics over the next few years again mate!!i have just had 3 ice days in a row in leicester!!doubt we gona get one today!!

One or possibly two ice days. Coventry had one Sunday. Yesterday was 2 or 3c over the Midlands.

[cold snap]

Is ukmo model a mistake.a error?

That would be crazy in middle of decenber.

Bitter cold run

[shaky]

One or possibly two ice days. Coventry had one Sunday. Yesterday was 2 or 3c over the Midlands.

Actually your right!!ive had two ice days!!yesterdays just about scraped 1 degree here in leicester!!But still two ice days in a row in march is some achievement!!

Sheep & lambs can survive under snow often up to 2 weeks, it's a good insulator! It's a natural adaptation to cope with snow that has diminished in recent mild winters but can re-assume.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6951629/Snow-stories-sheep-have-forgotten-how-to-cope-with-snow.html

The snow is hardly going to last 2 weeks looking at the synoptics this morning, colder then average but slowly warming.

The Op was definately a lone mild solution.

Those ensembles are much much colder compared to yesterdays 0z ones!!infact whatever mild members were left in the last two or three runs have now joined the cold cluster!!very few mild ones available now!!

[rory o gorman]

nice end to the ECM with proper WAA getting going.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20130325/00/ecmt850.240.png

[shaky]

Is ukmo model a mistake.a error?

That would be crazy in middle of decenber.

Bitter cold run

Lol i know what you mean!!but i doubt it will work out like that exactly!!the ukmo is a bit extreme in what its showing but you never know!!

[karlos1983]

Is ukmo model a mistake.a error?

That would be crazy in middle of decenber.

Bitter cold run

Kind of inline with what Ian F said, 10-16D . Nothing warm expected! Or along those lines.

Lol i know what you mean!!but i doubt it will work out like that exactly!!the ukmo is a bit extreme in what its showing but you never know!!

Better the UKMO than the GFS. IMO

[bluearmy]

It has to be treated with caution as remember Ian tweeted and forecast SW'ly regime returning in early Feb....and we are still waiting and this winter has caught EVERYONE out one way or another. No doubt the breakdown and change will come but models say not this side of Easter to any real breakdown .

BFTP

Fred, your continuing ref to one tweet which reflected the data at that time is getting rather tiresome. will you still be doing it come may?

on topic and the broad model consensus continues. Staying colder than average with a chance of snowfall if less cold air tries to make inroads.

[weather_it_will]

ECM looks superb for a cold easterly at T240. This could go on and on for a very long time.

Anyone looking for warmth should look away.

[weather eater]

No end in sight as the powerful block continues to drive low pressure to the south under us, despite the forecast of only isolated showers effecting mainly eastward facing coasts its actually been snowing hard here this morning at times, with at least another cm of fresh snow in the last hour. This winter and spring I would guess that I’ve seen more days with snow falling than the last five years combined, include Dec 2010 witch really didn’t produce much here.

[Troubleatmill]

ECM looks superb for a cold easterly at T240. This could go on and on for a very long time.

Anyone looking for warmth should look away.

Indeed, cold is the theme as far out as the eye can see, not good if looking for warmth, getting really miffed with this grey, frigid cold now and like most i love cold and snow! ensembles:

[Gibby]

Good morning folks. Here is the report of the 00z output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Tuesday March 26th 2013.

All models show conditions between now and the end of Easter as largely unchanged with High pressure holding firm to the North and Low pressure areas sliding East to the South of the UK with little if any progress North over this period. A cold and raw East wind will continue to blow through the period and bring occasional wintry showers in from the North Sea across more Central and northern areas but to more Southern areas too possibly by Easter with the low risk of more persistent light snow in the far South later. Frosts at night will continue in significant windchill in the South.

GFS then takes us out of Easter with a continuation of cold Easterly winds throughout next week. These winds would be very cold at the start of the week with further snowfall possible but much less cold as the week progresses with any risk of snow removed by the end of the week. The rest of FI shows very unsettled weather developing as low pressure moves East across the South with plenty of rain. It would still be on the cold side of average at the surface for early April before the last few days of the run shows warmer SW winds develop at all levels of the atmosphere.

The GFS Ensembles show the mean remaining below the long term average for the entire run this morning with the operational a marked mild outlier post Easter. The weather would be largely dry if cold with little marked precipitation spikes shown. This looks a major step back towards colder evolutions from recent runs.

The Jet Stream remains one of the key factors why the UK Spring is delayed this year, blowing as it West to East across the Atlantic, across Southern Spain and Southern Europe currently. It does move slowly North as far as France at the holiday break before being pushed back South again as we move through next week keeping the UK and the rest of Northern Europe very much on the cold side of the flow.

UKMO for the end of the Easter weekend shows a Low pressure belt stretching from Biscay to mid Atlantic and High pressure to the North of Scotland with a very cold and raw Easterly flow over the UK. Snow showers are likely in the East and the situation is prime for a push of milder air from the SW at anytime with the chance of rain or snow making it's way up into at least the SW at some point.

GEM this morning shows a cold Easterly flow as well early next week before a High pressure cell slips slowly South over the West of the UK making things feel less cold by day but with sharp night frosts. The pattern shown at the end of next week does suggest something of a break with perhaps more average April conditions beyond day 10.

ECM shows the synoptic pattern changing little over it's latter stages with Low to the South and high to the North maintained. However, as we move through next week the coldest uppers evaporate away with 'less' cold air developing over the UK with temperatures perhaps reaching the upper single digits by the end of next week with some rain at times likely in the South and any snow restricted to the highest hills of the North.

In Summary today the cold synoptic pattern looks locked in for the foreseeable future. The weather would remain very cold with the risk of some light snow persisting until the end of the Easter period. Through next week despite things looking unchanged on the face of the charts this morning there looks every chance that with time the very coldest of the weather will dissolve into 'rather' cold instead of 'very' cold conditions with any precipitation being generally of rain from early next week on. However, this does not indicate a quick march into Spring as there still looks no real sign of any pleasant Spring conditions this morning.

[Timmytour]

Cold outlook...but the models can and do change their output over the course of time....especially the longer you look into FI

For example....Matt Hugo has tweeted today....

Latest EC32 maintains a generally colder than average, but drier than average outlook well into April. Little sign of any warmth

Yet on the 4th March he tweeted....

Latest EC 32 day forecast backs this up with a subsequent rise in temps to 2C to 4C above average by approx mid-March onwards

.

Not to have a go at Matt in any way....he's only reporting what a model is showing

[frosty ground]

The story continues to be the pushing back of milder weather...... The GFS Ensembles for example have collapsed below average and show below average temps all the way out to the end of the run. The exceptionally cold weather of late will moderate over time with increased solar input, but the overall temperature profile will be one of below average especially if the block remains to the north.

After a cold spell we could be looking at a very wet spell

Edited March 26, 2013 by frosty ground

[mushymanrob]

I can't see any significant pattern change to milder comditions for the next two weeks at least, the long wave pattern has almost become set in stone. Looking at the CFS charts for the rest of spring and none of them scream warm, average at best, but after the last month average will feel like a heatwave.

after viewing this mornings runs then reading this is imho its spot on.

morning guys.

well, what a rather bland set of runs this morning, rather unchanging, and rather boring! this cold spell is set to continue through the eater week and into most of next week. there will be slight changes as the winds ease and intensify and change direction but always somewhere in the eastern quadrant. the main thing about this mornings runs is that a) they broadly agree, and b.). they all display a very plausable, smooth, evolution

on the plus side precipitation isnt expected to be great, with localised snow showers/flurries and a threat of something in the southeast temporarily . theres more sunshine about too, at least at first. as has been mentioned there will be a gradual thaw, good, that reduces the risk of flooding and dries the exposed ground out.

over the next ten days or so temps are expected to gradually rise, but even by mid next week will still be below average, so a cold outlook continues with frosts at night.

quite normal weather really.......

for february!

Edited March 26, 2013 by mushymanrob

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fred, your continuing ref to one tweet which reflected the data at that time is getting rather tiresome. will you still be doing it come may?

on topic and the broad model consensus continues. Staying colder than average with a chance of snowfall if less cold air tries to make inroads.

When the SW'ly arrives....

Some mentioned the plight of the farmers, the UKMO does nothing to 'help' them...that is one cold prolonging run.

BFTP

Edited March 26, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST