Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards

[-uksnow-]

ECM showing perhaps something for Cornwall, and a dusting over the south coast

[john mac]

Dec2010 I think but don't hold me to it lol

[fergieweather]

Lets just see where it sits in the ens - i suspect the mean wont show a similar output.

Anyhoo, looking a bit closer ahead in the time frame, anyone spot the trough on the 72hr fax?

Perhaps bringing the threat of snow to the home counties, the SE and EA

One to watch

Signal for the SE trough is only meaningful in UKMO-GM, but that's being followed for FAX at that timeframe currently... just in case.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Eh?? Warm and sunny?

Wet and miserable would be better put. Maybe the far north might have dry and cool weather.

That is just dreadful and would put bring haunting memories back of last summer.

The Jetstream is still continuing it's tour of the Sahara desert

Note - dreadful run as in only good for ducks and canoe salesmen

John Hammond on The One Show mentioned about the jet stream so far south he said it would try move north over easter but get pushed back again

[john mac]

Signal for the SE trough is only meaningful in UKMO-GM, but that's being followed for FAX at that timeframe currently... just in case.

Any thoughts with regards to the 12z output ian?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well, on the face of it yes but look at the blocking that remains at Northern latitude - going forward from there we would be ending up somewhere between well below average and very cold.

I tend to agree Ian. For sustained warmth we'd need a + NAO/AO and those charts are a long way from that.

[Purga]

ECM showing perhaps something for Cornwall, and a dusting over the south coast

Yes we may get something out of that system, I'm also hoping for a bit of snow tomorrow

Every little bit helps as the saying goes.

ECM rather poor in the longer term but DECIDER / MGREPS appears bullish about significant cold extending well into 10-15 days so let's see where ECM DET sits in the ENS before getting to downhearted.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Purga

[The Northern Ramper]

When was the last time FI delivered for us coldies ,Gavin?

FI for cold is currently T4250

[Methuselah]

Yes we may get something out of that system, I'm also hoping for a bit of snow tomorrow

Every little bit helps as the saying goes.

ECM rather poor in the longer term but DECIDER / MGREPS appears bullish about significant cold extending well into 10-15 days so let's see where ECM DET sits in the ENS before getting to downhearted.

Guess where the only hole is!

[Purga]

Well, on the face of it yes but look at the blocking that remains at Northern latitude - going forward from there we would be ending up somewhere between well below average and very cold.

Absolutely, there is a cracking Greenland High building there which will only serve to funnel cold arctic air down into Europe just in time to top up the depleting cold reserves. .

[AWD]

Guess where the only hole is!

Most of Wales, the Midlands, the West Country and South West England?

[Captain Shortwave]

Guess where the only hole is!

Face it our location is some kind of government anti-snow experimental testing site

Agree with CreweCold and Ian on this there are no winners on the ecm run tonight (unless you like cold rain of course)

I have to admit I'm not looking forward to any warm easterlies later in the season. The East coast shall ring to the sound of foghorns methinks.

[Purga]

Guess where the only hole is!

Lowestoft, Norwich and Halesworth look good it's just some poor blighter in the middle of that triangle that looks duff?

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report of the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for tonight Monday March 25th 2013.

All models show the period between now and the end of Easter with a broadly similar pattern of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South and West of the UK. A cold and raw East wind will blow throughout this period and though largely dry a lot of cloud will prevent much daytime warming while night times see widespread sharp and penetrating frosts in the strong winds. Over the Easter period fronts will approach the SW of the UK but the effects of these look like being held to the far SW over the weekend with the risk of rain or inland snow here while the rest of the UK stay largely dry and cold over Easter.

GFS shows that post Easter little change is likely for some time with cold East winds persisting with temperatures still well below average and the risk of some rain or snow in the South. Later next week though and changes are shown as High pressure builds from Iberia and moves North to the UK settling things down, removing the cold winds from the East and allowing some pleasant sunshine through. As the High then drifts slowly NE to Europe the winds turn South or SW with much milder conditions though with occasional rain developing from the West by the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles show a split from Good Friday with a crop of members bringing milder uppers in response to a push of Atlantic winds from the SW while another crop shows cold weather hanging on rather longer into next week before there is a general trend for conditions to become rather nearer average late in the run. Rainfall amounts are generally quite small everywhere through the run.

The Jet Stream shows little signs of moving North from it's Southerly aspect over the next week or so.

UKMO for the Easter weekend shows no let up in the cold spell with an Arctic ridge extending South over the UK with a cold east or NE flow persisting. Snow showers would be possible at times especially towards more Eastern and Southern areas with sharp night frosts continuing.

ECM shows a cold Easter too with a broadly similar setup. Monday looks a complicated day as Low pressure makes a more meaningful approach from the SW pushing a trough and some rain or perhaps snow Northeast over Southern and western areas. Then after Easter the weather is shown to be governed with Low pressure down to the SW with slightly less cold conditions, though with rain at times, some of it heavy in winds from the South or SE. With High pressure continuing to block any Northward movement of Low pressure and the Jet Stream the weather looks far from entering Spring mode from this output.

In Summary the weather will remain cold through the week and the Easter weekend too. There should be precious little new falling snow but any thaw of the lying snow over the North of the UK will be very slow and restricted to the daytimes. A few snow flurries will be thrown West from the East coast at times and penetrating frosts will be widespread at night accentuated by the strong breeze. Through Easter attempts of mild air from the SW stall and affect only the far SW. Next week sees nothing very clear cut from tonights output with my own version of events seeing gradually 'less' cold conditions taking control with temperatures staying somewhat below normal with rain at times rather than snowfall and less in the way of overnight frosts. I will add the caveat that cold air will still be close by to the North with every chance of seeing some return to it to the North at least at some stage down the line.

[Stuie]

Gavin, how ironic would it be to see your saviour being a Russian high? Yes the same one we were praying for erm, seems like moons ago.

[Stuie]

Regarding the weekend and the Atlantic low. Focus has dropped somewhat due to blocking but maybe look east on Saturday via the GFS?

Edited March 25, 2013 by StuieW

[mcweather]

I see that the channel low forecast of just 24 hours ago on the Meto office based Countryfile forecast has now been downgraded.

Ah well it was good while it lasted.

[Purga]

The 12z ENS are an amazing shift back to cold

will be interesting to see what the ECM ens are like?

[Stuie]

The 12z ENS are an amazing shift back to cold

will be interesting to see what the ECM ens are like?

Looks like a gradual rise to me.

[Lincslad]

Any showers towards the East Coast will be light. Only a few cms at best. Lincolnshire could see a few heavier ones friday/sat though. Any precepitation towards SW will be rain other than on Dartmoor.

[nick sussex]

The 12z ENS are an amazing shift back to cold

will be interesting to see what the ECM ens are like?

Those ensembles are a crime against Spring! Maybe the UK will see a Canadian type transformation from winter to summer forgetting the spring part.

That often happens over there where you can go from the last remnants of snow disappearing with the brown grass and everything looking a bit barren to a sudden explosion of colour.

Here spring has arrived thankfully, I do love snow and the cold but everything has its time and place. I can understand if theres a chance of snow people want to hold onto those cold uppers this late into the month but the cold pool can't continue to defy the increase in solar energy.

Unless theres a chance of further snow then I'm sure a lot of people won't mind too much if some warmer temps arrive, as long of course that comes with some nice sunshine and not a change to milder and wetter.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble charts for next week

Although temperatures will relax next week we are a while of some proper spring warmth yet and the northern blocking looks like staying firm for and week and a half at least

I still feel this is extended cold is the affects of the SSW back in January

[nick sussex]

ECM ensemble charts for next week

Although temperatures will relax next week we are a while of some proper spring warmth yet and the northern blocking looks like staying firm for and week and a half at least

I still feel this is extended cold is the affects of the SSW back in January

Unfortunately Gavin this is like when cold and snow lovers are faced by a constant PV stuck over Greenland in the winter, but the reverse this time in terms of your hopes for something milder.

The best that can be said is that hopefully this northern blocking signal will diminish at the right time to deliver a decent late spring/summer.

[shaky]

ECM ensemble charts for next week

Although temperatures will relax next week we are a while of some proper spring warmth yet and the northern blocking looks like staying firm for and week and a half at least

I still feel this is extended cold is the affects of the SSW back in January

Looks like the operational might be an outlier after 144 hours!!that mean is just amazing if your after cold and snow!!brrrrrriliant!!!may the freeze continue!!

[Stuie]

ECM ensemble charts for next week

Although temperatures will relax next week we are a while of some proper spring warmth yet and the northern blocking looks like staying firm for and week and a half at least

I still feel this is extended cold is the affects of the SSW back in January

Your reference to the SSW, I completely agree, dismissed the whole issue but this abnormal weather could be linked? Well said.