Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Milhouse]

18z continues the theme of recent gfs runs of high pressure building strongly in fi and even goes a degree higher than the 12z by bringing 21c for southern England under a strong area of high pressure. In the shorter term this week is pretty much certain to be cold and dry but double figure temperatures could make a comeback from Saturday onwards. I do expect the gfs to back of its idea of extensive hp dominance. It just doesn't seem a plausible outcome but as last March showed, it can happen.

[Guest pjl20101]

18z continues the theme of recent gfs runs of high pressure building strongly in fi and even goes a degree higher than the 12z by bringing 21c for southern England under a strong area of high pressure. In the shorter term this week is pretty much certain to be cold and dry but double figure temperatures could make a comeback from Saturday onwards. I do expect the gfs to back of its idea of extensive hp dominance. It just doesn't seem a plausible outcome but as last March showed, it can happen.

Wonder if CFS gave an earlier indication of this my friend? Or it could be an MJO thing going into phase 5.

Edited March 31, 2013 by pjl20101

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z continues the theme of recent gfs runs of high pressure building strongly in fi and even goes a degree higher than the 12z by bringing 21c for southern England under a strong area of high pressure. In the shorter term this week is pretty much certain to be cold and dry but double figure temperatures could make a comeback from Saturday onwards. I do expect the gfs to back of its idea of extensive hp dominance. It just doesn't seem a plausible outcome but as last March showed, it can happen.

I suspect the GFS is off on one of its merry wanders...

There seems to be little support YET for the GFS solution and the ECM ensemble mean at 216 hours is even more telling

My advice? I'd not set your hopes on the GFS being correct. My call would be very late April and into May for HP dominated weather.....CFS perhaps supportive of this as there seems to have been more HP runs than not over the last 2 weeks or so....

I'd be quite happy to bet the GFS isn't showing that HP influence in the 192 hour range come Tuesday.

On a completely less serious note, about 90% of the runs I've looked at for November over the past 2 weeks have shown quite a significant blocking signature for the month....Think I may revisit that one in October!

Edited April 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[Guest pjl20101]

I am singing from the same hymsheet as you CreweCold as the NOAA was going for unsettled sypnotics tonight and thus agreeing with ecm, cheers by the way for the links my friend.

[Panayiotis]

The CFS 12z has been consistently showing this cold spell to end in 200hrs+ after a brief northerly incursion it brings in what I would call zonal conditions for the remainder of April maybe the S being more dry at times as high pressure tries to build in from the south only to be knocked down by the next low. One thing for sure though is that we have seen heights decrease towards the north in the later frames of most models, and with these low heights its always a matter of time until zonal conditions are upon us.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

Edited April 1, 2013 by Panayiotis

[SP1986]

Well the GFS wants to bring the cold air flooding back in with, I presume, locally record breaking consequences as the-10C at 850 males another appearance. Though this time I suspect it'll be out on its own. That said any warm up is still a fair way away!

Edited April 1, 2013 by SP1986

[SLEETY]

looks like people yesterday were way too quick yet again in thinking the cold spell was on its way out

Ecm out on its own in wanting to bring less cold conditions in a weeks time

Gfs and ukmo very similar and gfs want to keep the cold coming in its longer range output.

Not looking good for the mild weather fans this morning

[karlos1983]

Just goes to show how knife edge this situation is, although unlikely, the GFS shows what could happen and it is a possibility. The irony is that we chase these very charts all winter and they disappear at the last minute, now it'll probably stick when we really don't want it too lol this will give Gavin nightmares

Edited April 1, 2013 by karlos1983

[That ECM]

Interesting output this morning with big differences from t144 from the big three. GFS builds pressure to the nw and therefore keeps the cold feed. UKMO has a ridge sat over us and this would be fairly dry, still cool but feeling less so with little wind chill as the winds would be light. ECM has low pressure barreling in from the nw moving the cold uppers east. It would be less cold but more precipitation.

I would like the UKMO and it looks more likely IMO.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

hi from a very chilly Suffolk looks like we can expect cold weather up to APRIL 12 then deeper in to fantasy world a rainy season looks like it might start

[bluearmy]

Gem is even coldeer than gfs with the dropping shortwave from the ne. This is a solution that a few ops have delivered over the last few days (inc the ecm). Given its extreme nature one doubts its chances of verification but maybe its the last hurrah of the cold period. Certainly looks like light at the end of the very cold tunnel but even the end of the ecm op is amplified upstream so a relaxation of the blocking doesn't necessarily mean warm highs as per low res gfs runs.

[Summer Sun]

Well from what Joe B posted on twitter last night a warm up isn't far away now

He also said in longer term next winter likely to be bad

[johnholmes]

the nearest cuckoo is just as likely to get the prediction for next winter right!

[mushymanrob]

Summary : John Holmes calls mild !

what a rude post.

if you read what not only jh has posted but others, youd see that the data IS suggesting a pattern change albeit in fi. the signals for this are gathering pace. you would also read why it might get milder as jh and others pointed, and where to look, what to expect IF this fi change actually is going to happen. that isnt calling mild, thats saying what the path taken by various sets of data will show IF theres a change to mild.

until then its cold, all week, and i still remain scepticle over any pattern change, the predicted route to something milder is a dangerous one, in terms of smooth evolution. ill certainly not be celebrating unti later in the week and IF the data provided firms up on this possible pattern change.

[johnholmes]

Summary : John Holmes calls mild !

calls what mild old chap?

[summer blizzard]

Lovely output.

[Tim Bland]

Cme on coldies, hang in there! We can squeeze a few more snowflakes out of this winter before we pack up for a few months. ECM looks over progressive to me and is out on its own. GFS / GEM still look good for a NE flow and disturbances bringing widespread snow

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/index.php

Here's another thought... What if the ECM adjusted that low 300 miles south and it tracked west to east through the channel !

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

[Purga]

calls what mild old chap?

One of these John

Happy April 1st - have one on me!

Mine's a bitter though!

PS: Mushy calm down

Edited April 1, 2013 by Purga

[shaky]

Cme on coldies, hang in there! We can squeeze a few more snowflakes out of this winter before we pack up for a few months. ECM looks over progressive to me and is out on its own. GFS / GEM still look good for a NE flow and disturbances bringing widespread snow

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/index.php

Here's another thought... What if the ECM adjusted that low 300 miles south and it tracked west to east through the channel !

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

i have a feeling that the ecm will look a lot colder this evening!!it looks very close to an undercut at the 144 hour time frame!!gfs looks very cold and ukmo looks cold aswell!!no real end insight yet!!

[rory o gorman]

GFS 00z ens full cold outliner in medium term. Very good mean for a return to mild

[Tim Bland]

GFS 00z ens full cold outliner in medium term. Very good mean for a return to mild

It's in the colder side of the ensembles but it's definitely not what you would class as an outlier

[SMU]

Gfs & Ukmo similar to 144 today both signalling a reinforcing block where as ECM is ploughing through ar day 6, a pattern change has emerged within the ECMin the last 24 hours however the others dont agree, infact the Gfs upgrades the cold out to day 10... So nothing settled yet. Maybe some snow for the south this week...

S

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning everyone, anyone looking for mild it's hopeless..... those damn satelites

heh, moving on, no change from the ECM repeating it's output from yesterday to a tee, GFS looks interesting along with UKMO both looking for some kind of undercut which would prove to be a gamechanger.

Interesting to see the GFS crack out a run very similar to the BOM output last night.... surely the Aussie model can't be leading the way... now that's an April fools

Edited April 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[rory o gorman]

It's in the colder side of the ensembles but it's definitely not what you would class as an outlier

It is for my area anyway the bottom member

[seabreeze86]

The ever reliable 6z on the GFS keeps the idea of reinforcing the blocking and bringing -8 850s back on April the 6th

The difference with this flow is that it would be far more unstable therefore plenty of showers in the east. Until the ECM backtracks i would take it with a large pinth of salt. I do hope the ECM is wrong thow cool,wet and windy does not float my boat.