Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Tim Bland]

Ensembles seem to be getting colder and colder with milder members reduced ! Op was on mild side at the end of the run

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[MR EXTREMES]

Ian (TWS) will name you several instances of convective snow showers in April.

When looking at the ensemble mean maps for the ECM that cold pool of air is still shown to the NE....it's just synoptics around our shores aren't shown to support its movement SW

i think a straight arctic blast might be more likely to produce more intresting weather like 2008 april.

but there dont seem to be and end in sight yet but i bet a tenner we have a dry hot summer.

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm t120 bimey reload it some ways we wanna be greatfull this was not in the depths of winter i think 2010 would have been blushing

[Purga]

Poor old Gavin

P11 is an absolute corker!

FI and just for fun but what a blast that would be and actually with the trend for another cold shot from the NE not so far fetched.

[Weather-history]

I wonder if we can get a significantly below average April to follow on from March?

It has happened and the next question will be asked the coldest first half spring since.....? If the charts continue in the same vein.

[Captain Shortwave]

T168

Surely it's a Greenland high from here

Well I was wrong

Following this mornings run

Edited March 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Purga]

T168

Surely it's a Greenland high from here

Well I was wrong

Following this mornings run

Captain Shortwave is gonna look more like this soon

Edited March 28, 2013 by Purga

[Captain Shortwave]

I should predict charts more often, or was it all part of Gavins plan

[pages]

finally something for Gavin to celebrate Energy going over at T216 high should be sunk by t240

Edited March 28, 2013 by pages

[Purga]

Disaster! --- but still cold

[Milhouse]

A better ECM for the chances of something drier, sunnier and warmer appearing late on. Brisk easterlies through next week but uppers not as cold as the week just gone so not feeling as cold.

Would likely contine mild and dry for a while:

[rory o gorman]

great end to the ecm, 240 hrs would have high teens here in southern Ireland

[SnowObsessor90]

It's not just the ECM that's hinting a patern change in FI, the GFS is does also albeit quite a bit further into low res, could we finally be beginning to see early hints of the end of the road perhaps?

[Harsh Climate]

Awful charts IMO, I don't see the point in cold weather/great winter synoptics now, had moderate snow showers yesterday under -10 uppers yet absolutely no accumulations. And that's even with a cold low level flow undercutting.

So to get any decent snowfall now would take something truly special, even then it would probably be quickly gone.

I'm with Gavin let's have some warmth and some lower heating bills!

And although we have had a truly awesome march, I just hate seeing such beautiful synoptics going to waste, If it had of been one month/6 weeks earlier we would have probably been looking at something similar to 1947... sods law

[weather_it_will]

finally something for Gavin to celebrate Energy going over at T216 high should be sunk by t240

Looks a reload for another colder easterly as the T240 seems to suggest.

Edited March 28, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[Milhouse]

great end to the ecm, 240 hrs would have high teens here in southern Ireland

Maybe not quite with the warmer air not quite reached us yet but after all this cold it will most certainly feel like it.

[Milhouse]

Looks a reload for another colder easterly as the T240 seems to suggest.

All the cold air is heading down into central/eastern Europe. Looking at the evolution up to T240 the liklihood is that the little ridge of HP would stay to the south of the UK for a couple of days before being squeezed out by low pressure encroaching from the north west. Cold air is there but its being pushed away from the UK.

Edited March 28, 2013 by Milhouse

[rory o gorman]

All the cold air is heading down into central/eastern Europe. Looking at the evolution up to T240 the liklihood is that the little ridge of HP would stay to the south of the UK for a couple of days before being squeezed out by low pressure encroaching from the north west. Cold air is there but its being pushed away from the UK.

agreed the energy at 240 hrs is going north the blocking is toppled , hopefully we can see a ridging setup before the summer.

[Snowman.]

Disaster! --- but still cold

You do realise that many here want mild now. Not a disaster you can't simply keep cold in April or have a ice day.

At T240 its FI anyway so it doesn't matter.

[ANYWEATHER]

The weather will warm up, its not if but when, but the next week stays in the freezer...

[Mucka]

Well some relief if you believe ECM FI which I don't, not yet at least because it looks too progressive from 144 forcing a lot of energy under Southern Greenland and flattening the block.

If tomorrows runs show some consistency with 144/168 charts I will take more notice,

[Summer Sun]

Not bad at all from ECM towards the end of its run pressure slowly becomes lower over Greenland and high pressure builds over the UK with the coldest air heading off into eastern Europe out the way

Pressure is getting squeezed out over Greenland and the high build's over the UK

Coldest uppers build in eastern europe

And now the high has gone from Greenland with high pressure over the UK

Milder air slowly pushing in from the west

We'll be lucky on this occasion and avoid the coldest air as long everything goes to plan

Edited March 28, 2013 by Gavin.

[Purga]

great end to the ecm, 240 hrs would have high teens here in southern Ireland

with dull skys & rain probably but it is FI and only one run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not bad at all from ECM towards the end of its run pressure slowly becomes lower over Greenland and high pressure builds over the UK with the coldest air heading off into eastern Europe out the way

Pressure is getting squeezed out over Greenland and the high build's over the UK

Coldest uppers build in eastern europe

And now the high has gone from Greenland with high pressure over the UK

Milder air slowly pushing in from the west

We'll be lucky on this occasion and avoid the coldest air as long everything goes to plan

Trouble is it doesn't look a very stable pattern Gavin. That high would be flattened pretty quickly.

[Guest pjl20101]

Well some relief if you believe ECM FI which I don't, not yet at least because it looks too progressive from 144 forcing a lot of energy under Southern Greenland and flattening the block.

If tomorrows runs show some consistency with 144/168 charts I will take more notice,

It is looking very nice indeed in FI, to be fair ECM have performed very well indeed.