Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is slowly loosing the coldest uppers by Monday

GFS for the same time

[mcweather]

Some possible snow interest for southerners next week on todays 00z ECM run. A cold pool moving west with instablitiy evident over northern France.

Looks reasonably ripe for some sort of feature to develop and move westwards down the English channel.

Not saying its definite , just a possiblty.

[mcweather]

UKMO is slowly loosing the coldest uppers by Monday

GFS for the same time

Yes Gavin they're all the way up to minus 6 to minus 8 on April 1st. Positively tropical. lol

[Summer Sun]

A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing

GFS is now also hinting at pressure becoming lower over Greenland

Temperatures recover to normal or above normal for many

Slowly but surely things are turning better during April and its going along with the met offices thought's earlier

there are signs that this prolonged cold period may start to wane, as winds become more westerly in nature.

That's upto April 12th

Edited March 29, 2013 by Gavin.

[bluearmy]

gav - they couldnt be any worse from a springlike perspective. i guess you are taking solace from a more optimistic meto extended this lunchtime and maybe seeing fi charts as supporting this view. i would caution. fi is fi, especially so on ops and from where i am sitting, the 6 day charts on the 12z output seem to be reflective of the ecm ens mean from the 00z runs.

[-uksnow-]

A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing

GFS is now also hinting at pressure becoming lower over Greenland

Temperatures recover to normal or above normal for many

Slowly but surely things are turning better during April and its going along with the met offices thought's earlier

That's upto April 12th

I really do want it to warm up for you just so you dont have to chase mild FI charts every run, as thats the only time they are ever appearing at the moment! However, given the GFS's performance this winter and the fact the meto think its tosh post 144 (and even before?) i'm far from convinced by it yet.

Look at the difference between GFS and UKMO @ only 96hrs

GFS:

UKMO:

Given that the patterns dont match at even that timescale, and the UKMO is alot higher in the verifcation stats than GFS at the moment, i fail to see a way out of this easterly phase yet. The chaos theory would cause the pattern post this timeframe to be largely wrong, it may be similar but i cant see it being right in HI RES, meaning that when it drops to low res, what hope to we have!

Keep up the mild hunting

[SE Blizzards]

A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing

GFS is now also hinting at pressure becoming lower over Greenland

Temperatures recover to normal or above normal for many

Slowly but surely things are turning better during April and its going along with the met offices thought's earlier

That's upto April 12th

Trouble is that them milder charts you shown are all 11+ days away, as has been the case now for what seems an eternity.

Nothing remotely mild in the reliable on the Gfs 12Z, and big hints of something brewing from the NE next weekend.

Unbelievable cold pool of air for the time of year flooding out of the Arctic and reaching our shores.

You would be forgiven if u thought this was a chart for the middle of winter, but no, its April! Brrrr!!

Edited March 29, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Frosty.]

A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing

GFS is now also hinting at pressure becoming lower over Greenland

Temperatures recover to normal or above normal for many

Slowly but surely things are turning better during April and its going along with the met offices thought's earlier

That's upto April 12th

You have been saying this for weeks whenever there are a few mild charts in deepest FI but the mild weather is not getting any closer, it's still in deepest FI, so I am not convinced the cold spell will have ended by around T+240, more likely to be much later than that in my opinion, certainly according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean which shows the wintry spell tightening it's icy grip as time goes on.

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond from BBC weather has given an outlook for April also on there is a glimpse of the MOGREPS 2m temperature probability model which covers the period from March 29th to April 8th

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21977085

[Scorcher]

You have been saying this for weeks whenever there are a few mild charts in deepest FI but the mild weather is not getting any closer, it's still in deepest FI, so I am not convinced the cold spell will have ended by around T+240, more likely to be much later than that in my opinion, certainly according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean which shows the wintry spell tightening it's icy grip as time goes on.

The cold propaganda is getting slightly ridiculous, and a lot of the replies to Gavin's posts are hypocritical- you criticise him for picking charts out of FI then you yourself claim that the cold will go on well beyond T+240. He may be looking at charts in FI but you must be using a crystal ball. Things are moving in the right direction, it will be cold for the next few days but I see no real evidence of a wintry spell 'tightening its icy grip', 7C by day is not my idea of icy.

[johnholmes]

A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing

one has to give you full marks for persistence Gavin. It is significant that no less cold charts show in what many would calll the reliable time frame. Someone else has pointed out the differences between GFS and UK Met by T+96 and that the northern hemisphere statistics show UK usually scoring better than GFS.

Certainly there is little if anything to back up the GFS output at T+240 onwards. The upper air pattern seems 90% locked into a pattern that will not allow any milder air other than possibly briefly into the far SW on that time scale. Even beyond that other than the 'oddish' looking ECMWF anomaly this morning then nothing out to 15-16 days ahead either.

Like I said I admire your persistence in searching for the ever elusive mild.

In answer to Scorcher I hope I am not seen as a cold propogandist but more of an objective one. WHEN I think the upper air pattern is starting to show signs of changing I will post such-at the moment there is precious little if any.

Edited March 29, 2013 by johnholmes

[snowking]

John Hammond from BBC weather has given an outlook for April also on there is a glimpse of the MOGREPS 2m temperature probability model which covers the period from March 29th to April 8th

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/21977085

I have been led to believe that the temperature range feature on the Met Office website:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/london-stansted-airport#?tab=tempRange&map=SignificantWeather&zoom=8&lon=0.24&lat=51.88&fcTime=1364536800

Comes directly from the MOGREPS model too (which derivative it comes from I am unsure, presumably MOGREPS-R?). It may only go up to T+120, but if Ian is able to confirm this, its another tool to add to the box

SK

[Frosty.]

The words ARCTIC BLAST spring to mind when viewing the latest Ecm 00z ens mean, hopefully the 12z will look the same, it would be nice to finish this epic cold spell with an arctic blast as the ecm shows, also the met office indicating a northerly flow with wintry showers in the mid range.

[Milhouse]

GFS 12z (and UKMO up to T144) leaning down the route of a northerly in just over a weeks time which would potentially bring a few wintery showers to eastern parts but plentiful sunshine elsewhere with light winds meaning it should feel pleasant in the strong April Sunshine. Night time frosts will occor but it would mean the end to the raw cloudy easterly which has plagued the UK for the last 2 months. Later on the GFS sinks the high bringing a pleasant end to the run with temperatures in the mid teens. A very sunny GFS if it were to verify so the extra hour of daylight in the evening would be noticeable.

[Yarmy]

John Hammond from BBC weather has given an outlook for April also on there is a glimpse of the MOGREPS 2m temperature probability model which covers the period from March 29th to April 8th

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/21977085

Is this the first public sighting of the mysterious MOGREPS? Quite exciting if so, but a bit depressing if you're after something warm.

[pip22]

If this cold/cool dry weather set to continue, there is a risk of Britain experiencing a drought. If not a severe one.

Blocking weather patterns can be serious.

Edited March 29, 2013 by pip22

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 12z (and UKMO up to T144) leaning down the route of a northerly in just over a weeks time which would potentially bring a few wintery showers to eastern parts but plentiful sunshine elsewhere with light winds meaning it should feel pleasant in the strong April Sunshine. Night time frosts will occor but it would mean the end to the raw cloudy easterly which has plagued the UK for the last 2 months. Later on the GFS sinks the high bringing a pleasant end to the run with temperatures in the mid teens. A very sunny GFS if it were to verify so the extra hour of daylight in the evening would be noticeable.

Don't forget that during April, inland shower formation should be rife. The coastal notion only really applies Nov-Feb.

If this cold/cool dry weather set to continue, there is a risk of Britain experiencing a drought. If not a severe one.

Blocking weather patterns can be serious.

There is no risk of a drought for the foreseeable.

[Summer Sun]

Is this the first public sighting of the mysterious MOGREPS? Quite exciting if so, but a bit depressing if you're after something warm.

I think it was the MOGREPS model Alex Deakin used in his April predictions forecast on the BBC world channel on the 27th - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21961844 - 1:40 its viewable from

[mushymanrob]

surely drought is a possibility if this or another block lasts another six months. maybe notlike 76 but a 75, or 95, or 03 is feasible. but its a big if.

[Captain Shortwave]

If this cold/cool dry weather set to continue, there is a risk of Britain experiencing a drought. If not a severe one.

Blocking weather patterns can be serious.

If we get a drought, we need to get to the gates of the water companies and protest

Still looks cold for the foreseeable though at least it seems we might avoid the gloomy low cloud filled high perhaps. Northerly reload from at least a large north atlantic ridge looks likely if not a full blown greenland high. We need to watch a high pressure cell over Alaska as it drifts across the pole. For people wanting mild you don't want that meeting the ridge to our west as if those two meet it's pretty much game over mild wise for another week or 2

[johnholmes]

I think it was the MOGREPS model Alex Deakin used in his April predictions forecast on the BBC world channel on the 27th - http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/21961844 - 1:40 its viewable from

a nice explanation from Alex and whatever it was he used to illustrate the most likely temperature pattern in 7-10 days time, it had little other than shades of blue on it!

[rory o gorman]

yep thats the mogreps , still tho the Atlantic can strike back fast at any time , i believe it will within two weeks .

Edited March 29, 2013 by rory o gorman

[Cheshire Freeze]

surely drought is a possibility if this or another block lasts another six months. maybe notlike 76 but a 75, or 95, or 03 is feasible. but its a big if.

Yeah it's also possible we'll be under 2 foot of water, the strongest depression since '87 will batter us or Crewe will get a thunderstorm this summer. All as equally as unlikely as each other!

[Frosty.]

a nice explanation from Alex and whatever it was he used to illustrate the most likely temperature pattern in 7-10 days time, it had little other than shades of blue on it!

My favourite colour

It looks like the cold will intensify again, not the same level of cold we had last week but the windchill factor looks like increasing again after the more benign anticyclonic phase, hopefully the ecm 00z ens mean at T+240 hours is the way forward with more cold weather and snow with widespread frosts for the next few weeks at least.

[Summer Sun]

12z London ensemble to the 6th shows a slight rise in uppers upto next Saturday with virtually no rainfall at all which continues to be the big positive giving places chance to dry out after last years exceptional rainfall

Edited March 29, 2013 by Gavin.