Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Purga]

The words ARCTIC BLAST spring to mind when viewing the latest Ecm 00z ens mean, hopefully the 12z will look the same, it would be nice to finish this epic cold spell with an arctic blast as the ecm shows, also the met office indicating a northerly flow with wintry showers in the mid range.

Ooohh you cold propagandist you! LOL.

A good solid push of very cold uppers into Europe after t+240hrs

Also seems to be a good blast of WAA north to inflate the N blocking but it seems like a lot hinges on the path, intensity and trajectory of the deep LP ejecting from Newfoundland - let's see what happens.

Anyway a nice toasty June chart for the warmanistas to keep everyone smiling.

[weather_it_will]

If this cold/cool dry weather set to continue, there is a risk of Britain experiencing a drought. If not a severe one.

It's only been dry a few days!

For many of us last weeks snow and ice is still melting which is providing plenty of water for all types of reservoirs, rivers and farmers land.

No chance of any drought unless it stays dry for months, which is very unlikely in the UK, and the models are showing plenty of wet weather to come, be it rain or snow.

[karlos1983]

It's only been dry a few days!

For many of us last weeks snow and ice is still melting which is providing plenty of water for all types of reservoirs, rivers and farmers land.

No chance of any drought unless it stays dry for months, which is very unlikely in the UK, and the models are showing plenty of wet weather to come, be it rain or snow.

Are they? I can't find any showing plenty of any form of PPN. Agreed no fear of drought though!

Edited March 29, 2013 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

the remainder of the gem 12z op looking very like the ecm 00z ens mean as expected looking at the day 6 chart. ecm 12z op really should look like its 00z run if there is any logic to this game !!

[Snowman.]

yep thats the mogreps , still tho the Atlantic can strike back fast at any time , i believe it will within two weeks .

Not in the middle of april...

Winter yes but april its already dying so for it to just whip up a super low is very unlikely, we seem to be stuck in this pattern for a while yet.

[pip22]

It's only been dry a few days!

For many of us last weeks snow and ice is still melting which is providing plenty of water for all types of reservoirs, rivers and farmers land.

No chance of any drought unless it stays dry for months, which is very unlikely in the UK, and the models are showing plenty of wet weather to come, be it rain or snow.

or maybe not. We have to wait and see. Time will tell. Edited March 29, 2013 by pip22

[cold snap]

Way this winter has gone it would be fool hardy to rule out a significant snow event between now and the next two weeks.few tweaks here and there as shown with the ecm and thats what might happen.unlikely mind.but never say never.

Please note. ref is to the ecm 0z run

Edited March 29, 2013 by cold snap

[A.J]

can we please have a little bit of model output discussion for a really refreshing change?.......struggling to find much model related postings in this thread, which is quite odd, considering the thread title!!

[A.J]

again, and I must reiterate, please refrain from commenting on off topic posts as all that happens is the thread being totally thrown off topic and derailed. If any member feels that any post is in breach of forum guidelines then please report the post using the 'report' facility under the post in question and let a member of the site team respond to the report.....thanks

[Jane Louise]

Please stay on topic and stop sniping at each other as you should know all snipey posts will be deleted!! thank you .

[Summer Sun]

ECM is setting up another easterly at t120

GFS full London ensemble

Edited March 29, 2013 by Gavin.

[J10]

As others have mentioned, please cut out the nastiness, a few comments which have broken that rule have been hidden. ( and subsequent comments criticising those said comments have also been hidden.)

We cannot all agree on the weather but please be civil and respectful.

Edited March 29, 2013 by Jackone

[-uksnow-]

ECM is setting up another easterly at t120

GFS full London ensemble

And the mean stays at or extremely close to -5 up until gone the 8th now, its rapidly being extended!

ECM at 144 has dropped its idea of such low thickness moving up from france however there are still differences with the UKMO at same time period

More energy being flung up from the low on the ECM.

[Summer Sun]

Something wintry for the south?

[Summer Sun]

Slightly less cold uppers over the UK at t168

But that doesn't last long as t192 brings this

Edited March 29, 2013 by Gavin.

[Tom Jarvis]

Slightly less cold uppers over the UK at t168

but look north east Gavin if that low sinks south!!! Edited March 29, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[Summer Sun]

The low to the east continues to sink south with the Azores to the SW

As it continues to sink into eastern Europe we get another cold blast

Edited March 29, 2013 by Gavin.

[SE Blizzards]

It just never ends!!!!!

[weather_it_will]

ECM is drawing in some very cold weather at the end of the run with a risk of snow.

No sign of any warmer weather yet.

[Tim Bland]

Wow... Even I'm looking for spring now! These Synoptics are making me wonder what could happen next winter! Something has certainly changed with jet stream and NH blocking patterns. I believe this pattern is similar to march 1962 let's hope we get the winter to follow !

[nick sussex]

New trend or a couple of dodgy ECM operational runs?

The ECM certainly wants to lower heights to the north past 168hrs with energy running over the top, whilst the previous ensemble means haven't supported this every new trend often starts out as an outlier solution until the lower resolution ensembles begin to pick up on it.

Personally I'm hoping this new trend verifies, the GFS does this aswell but a little later in its lower resolution output. March will likely go down as the coldest since 1962.

So certainly noteworthy but now everyones enjoyed that or not depending on what they prefer then I'd like to see an end to this cold for the UK and its associated southerly tracking jet which is dire for down here.

I know some still harbour hopes of more cold and snow but its really hard going to get anything of note in April that doesn't melt quickly so who needs a slushfest!

As everyone knows I'm an ardent cold and snow fan but really IMO once this interesting March for the UK comes to an end I'd like to see a big change to something warmer.

Lol! Damn at 192 and 216 hrs it looked promising I hadn't seen the 240hrs then the block reinforced!

Edited March 29, 2013 by nick sussex

[Milhouse]

ECM brings the high south much quicker than on the GFS and before day 10 we get something thats been a rarity in recent times, a northwesterly!! at T216. Cold air lurking to the northeast but there are several possible directions it could go beyond then. The jet stream is tracking much further north by the end of the run with high presure resuming its normal position over the Azores. This can only increase the chances of something warmer developing and a more favourable positioning of high pressure.

[Captain Shortwave]

Crikey we are in winter Purga-tory here (see what I did there )

The cold really does not want to relent.

JMA cold throughout

[Cheshire Freeze]

Back to square one at 240 hrs ECM. Azores high being forced back south and a potential undercut lining up out west which would draw some bitter cold air back across us from the E/NE

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM brings the high south much quicker than on the GFS and before day 10 we get something thats been a rarity in recent times, a northwesterly!! at T216. Cold air lurking to the northeast but there are several possible directions it could go beyond then. The jet stream is tracking much further north by the end of the run with high presure resuming its normal position over the Azores. This can only increase the chances of something warmer developing and a more favourable positioning of high pressure.

Unfortunately if the went further than day 10 you would see the Azores high being bulldozed yet again as low pressure has nowhere else to go apart from through Southern Europe as there are heights rebuilding to the north.

Wedge of heights over Iceland would win yet again.