Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Weather Boy]

Having looked at naefs, it might be best if gav doesn't get too excited. Looks like it prefers to keep the status quo with atlantic trough feeding a southerly jet into europe and blocking to our ne. Of course eventually a se feed will get warmer !

Yes, interesting last point there. If the feed was tilted slightly southeasterly as it looks to do occasionally and it was mid or late summer that would give quite pleasant conditions. As it is, it's far too early for that and in any case the northern half of the continent is still frozen to the bone making the feed even rawer than normal next week.

However, as there looks to be a chance of present conditions lasting for a lot longer yet, eventually there must be at least subtle changes owing to general warm up of the NH.

I have to say though to some extent I'm with Gav in the sense that I) there are hints of a sinking high that may or may not come to fruition, ii) realistically warmer is the only way to go, iii) the met office support that solution and iv) I am sceptical about a never ending weather pattern as some models have shown.

In my view a gradual, if too gradual warm up is at the very least on the cards after next weekend. Stiff easterlies in the meantime, though, especially down south!

[Northernlights]

The other thing that has not been mentioned is that it may be very dry come mid April when you not just factor in high pressure but the low humidity associated with it. Western Scotland may have some extraordinary scenes come that time.

There are already large wild fires occurring because of the very dry easterlies!

[SE Blizzards]

Nothing remotely mild on the GFS 6Z from start to finish.

http://www.meteociel...p?&ech=6&mode=1

http://www.meteociel...p?&ech=6&mode=0

Edit: Been snowing lightly here on and off all morning. Who would have thought BST starts in just a few hours time.

Edited March 30, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Polar Maritime]

I say, the entire 06Z run looks dire!

It looks cold and wintry to me Pete ! Just look how far South the Jet Stream is.

Edited March 30, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z is a sensational run if you love cold weather, all the way out to T+384 hours, no sign of anything mild encroaching anywhere near the uk, the cold is reloaded time and again from the east, northeast and north with the atlantic high remaining out in the atlantic and not toppling across the uk, the scandi trough is stronger and better aligned to feed very cold air southwestwards into the uk. Even if the 6z is a cold outlier, the next 10 days are guaranteed to continue cold or very cold with widespread frosts and further wintry showers with snow in places, and also the possibility of a more potent northeasterly outbreak by the end of next week into the following week.

I say, the entire 06Z run looks dire!

only dire for mildies

[Earth Wind and Snow]

I am sorry just a quick question to Jh why can't we read the thoughts of GP on here what has happened to him? Thanks Paul.

He put up a post a few days ago saying he has is taking up a new position in a large multinational long range weather forecasting company............ there is a thread in the weather discussion section called 'This is the end'

EWS

[weather_it_will]

The 06z GFS is impressive for cold fans, as nothing mild all the way to T384.

Edited March 30, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[karyo]

It looks cold and wintry to me Pete ! Just look how far South the Jet Stream is.

A little further south and it will be over the Sahara desert!

The 6z is impressive for cold just like the 0z ensembles were.

Karyo

[johnholmes]

I am sorry just a quick question to Jh why can't we read the thoughts of GP on here what has happened to him? Thanks Paul.

why ask me mate?

If you read his farewell note his new work will mean he is unable to spend time on here, but maybe if you send him a pm Stewart may explain things to you?

[Northern Sky]

I say, the entire 06Z run looks dire!

As much as I love cold and snow, the 06Z would be horrible were it to come off. I think farmers, gardeners and the plants and animals of the country will be hoping it doesn't.

[Frosty.]

The 6z is impressive for cold just like the 0z ensembles were.

Karyo

The Gfs 00z operational must have been a mild outlier in FI then, the 6z is likely to be a cold outlier, so something inbetween is probably more likely than the extreme ends of the scale. I would love the cold to continue as long as there is an ongoing risk of snow and a continuation of the sharp frosts, Mid April could be when we branch off towards more normal april weather but it's still well into FI range so no guarantees yet although the ecm is showing a likely pattern change beyond T+240, but the 12z may backtrack on that.

[Summer Sun]

This is the 00z ensemble for London

[-uksnow-]

Both Op and Control are in agreement about the potential for something from the NE at 192hrs, FI i know, but they are both singing from the same sheet.

Op

Control

Looking through the rest of the ptbs there is general support for this with some v.cold runs and very few mild runs at this timeframe. It's not over yet!

Oh and i found a beauty for Purga:

Edited March 30, 2013 by -uksnow-

[cooling climate]

The Gfs 06z is a sensational run if you love cold weather, all the way out to T+384 hours, no sign of anything mild encroaching anywhere near the uk, the cold is reloaded time and again from the east, northeast and north with the atlantic high remaining out in the atlantic and not toppling across the uk, the scandi trough is stronger and better aligned to feed very cold air southwestwards into the uk. Even if the 6z is a cold outlier, the next 10 days are guaranteed to continue cold or very cold with widespread frosts and further wintry showers with snow in places, and also the possibility of a more potent northeasterly outbreak by the end of next week into the following week.

only dire for mildies

Fantastic synoptics from the GFS 06z run this morning for HLB's and had it been during the winter

months some posters would have been foaming at the mouth lol, but unfortunately we are now

well into the spring season and therefore what would have been a continued big freeze just means

cold to very cold for the time of year with temps well above freezing by day.

Of course snow showers are likely should the synoptic play out and possibly temporary snowfall

especially if shower activity or frontal depressions occurr at night. We are at that time of year now

when we will see daytime temps of 5-8c plunge during heavy showers but we would need truely

exceptional synoptics to have a repeat of last weekend especially down south.

Had the large mountain torque event over Asia during the final days of February occurred

a few weeks earlier it is obvious how close we could have been to an exceptional cold second

half of winter.It is exactly these type of persistent north and northeasterly blocking that led to the

infamous winters of 47,63 etc etc.

[Cloud 10]

I say, the entire 06Z run looks dire!

Even the GFS finds its own output shocking,especially at 168 hrs..

.......

[Frosty.]

As long as there are charts like these, there is the chance of april blizzards, april blizzards are as rare as hens teeth but late april 1981 springs to mind, some parts of the uk had nearly 24 inches of level snow and very deep drifts, so it can happen again as long as the cold block remains.

[Summer Sun]

06z ensembles

With a slight increase in precipitation from the 8th on all the ensembles that could be when the change to a westerly wind finally occurs getting shot of this cold

EDIT just come across this

A conversation on Twitter from Ian fergusson and Matt Hugo

Ian Fergusson - Strengthened signs now of milder conditions with a marked pattern change circa 2nd week of April...

Matt Hugo - EC clusters seem to concur. Signs for lower pressure to the N or NW towards mid-month, milder but likely more unsettled.

Edited March 30, 2013 by Gavin.

[snowking]

Interesting tidbit from the runs today in the shorter term continues to be the potential for snowfall into the South of the UK in association with the shortwave feature progged consistently in recent days by the ECMWF:

The ECMWF (including ensemble suite) really rather keen on this, though the operational (displayed below in Black) is perhaps more keen than the EPS suite (red), whilst the GFS has no interest at all (Green) in its ensemble suite:

ECM mean solution pictured below:

Whilst the UKMO has it further south:

Given that it is not expected to reach as far north as the midlands:

For now the assumption would be that the ECM det. solution it too far north, and that over time it may come more into line with its EPS mean solution, placing it further south overall.

SK

[karyo]

The Gfs 00z operational must have been a mild outlier in FI then, the 6z is likely to be a cold outlier, so something inbetween is probably more likely than the extreme ends of the scale. I would love the cold to continue as long as there is an ongoing risk of snow and a continuation of the sharp frosts, Mid April could be when we branch off towards more normal april weather but it's still well into FI range so no guarantees yet although the ecm is showing a likely pattern change beyond T+240, but the 12z may backtrack on that.

It is probably a bit of a push, but I'd love to see snow showers on my birthday! (mid April)

Karyo

[SLEETY]

Anyway back in the RELIABLE time-frame,Gavin the only thing missing is some decent snowfall.Hints of a more North Easterly flow developing in time that may increase convection with a longer sea-track

Edited March 30, 2013 by SLEETY

[Frosty.]

It is probably a bit of a push, but I'd love to see snow showers on my birthday! (mid April)

Karyo

no worries about that if this verified, extreme

[Ravendane]

There is an old saying that April is the cruellest month for good reason..I have known many snowy Aprils. Heavy snow that doesn't last more than a few hours usually but I have known lying heavy snow as late as my birthday...on the 25th...

[-uksnow-]

Yep ECM brings this up (ref to what SK is talking about)

[SLEETY]

As long as there are charts like these, there is the chance of april blizzards, april blizzards are as rare as hens teeth but late april 1981 springs to mind, some parts of the uk had nearly 24 inches of level snow and very deep drifts, so it can happen again as long as the cold block remains.

I remember that.Parts of the South West got buried and I was on holiday at Devon and left the day before the blizzard began.unfortunately.

I see Scandi is still in the freezer .

Not looking good for Gavin is it

Edited March 30, 2013 by SLEETY

[rory o gorman]

good rise on the 06z ensembles the OP is right at the bottom. with some members heading for the 10c isotherm for my area