Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Purga]

Great FI chart again from 18z seems like approx 9th April is a good time.

An upper cold pool looks like generating enough instabilty to produce some decent snow for most parts across several days.

Nice stuff and the cold persisting very well with only a hint of any mild rubbish right at the end of the run.

[snowking]

More energy does go north east thou, start of a trend maybe.

For me today the story of the 12/18z's has been more energy going underneath the block in the semi-reliable timeframe:

The euro's more steadfast on the energy coming from the east (which could generate some snowfall interest incidentally - long way to go before we can consider that one though)

GEM and JMA get in on the action too:

Still uncertainty apparent there on how much energy we see from the east vs the west.

Ensemble means run with the idea too:

Just one set of runs so far, but should we see a similar movement from the 0z, it could well generate a little more interest for those who are still able to tolerate the cold.

I've got a trip up to Birmingham next week via Pinewood Studio's, so I have mixed feelings at present!

SK

[Purga]

For me today the story of the 12/18z's has been more energy going underneath the block in the semi-reliable timeframe:

The euro's more steadfast on the energy coming from the east (which could generate some snowfall interest incidentally - long way to go before we can consider that one though)

GEM and JMA get in on the action too:

Still uncertainty apparent there on how much energy we see from the east vs the west.

Ensemble means run with the idea too:

Just one set of runs so far, but should we see a similar movement from the 0z, it could well generate a little more interest for those who are still able to tolerate the cold.

I've got a trip up to Birmingham next week via Pinewood Studio's, so I have mixed feelings at present!

SK

Indeed, looks promising SK thanks for your time and effort as usual.

[nitro_deluxe]

April showers? don't make me larf the madness continues although at the same time rather intriguing and interesting to see the Atlantic onslaught well and truly shut, closed, adios for now..

[John Snow]

Great FI chart again from 18z seems like approx 9th April is a good time.

An upper cold pool looks like generating enough instabilty to produce some decent snow for most parts across several days.

Nice stuff and the cold persisting very well with only a hint of any mild rubbish right at the end of the run.

Are you a millionaire by any chance? am guessing you are judging by your love of massively high heating bills

[Purga]

Are you a millionaire by any chance? am guessing you are judging by your love of massively high heating bills

No millionaire but it's OK we just don't heat some rooms - like the bathroom for example

[Panayiotis]

Are you a millionaire by any chance? am guessing you are judging by your love of massively high heating bills

No we just wear extra layers....

[SE Blizzards]

Seems to be quite a bit of support for the cold to continue for quite a while yet on the 18Z Ens, with the possibility of a NE'ly outbreak in FI.

Edited March 29, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[SP1986]

Still no chance of mild weather for the forseeable future... however those who criticised the GFS temperature predictions were largely correct. GFS predicting -6C or -7C at midnight.. nowhere near currently.

I suspect the GFS is exaggerating some of the patterns in the longer term (the colder patterns), however it will remain cold well into British summertime. I also think the ECM is exaggerating the high pressure ridging from the Azores.. fine lines in this one, but so balanced there's no room for change at the moment, in the broad pattern.

Edited March 28, 2013 by SP1986

[summer blizzard]

Spring is still a good while away but there are increasing indications that we may begin to lose the cold, albeit slowly.

How dry it is forecast to be is also noteable.

Edited March 29, 2013 by summer blizzard

[Panayiotis]

Spring is still a good while away but there are increasing indications that we may begin to lose the cold, albeit slowly.

How dry it is forecast to be is also notable.

Yes, the cold is taking away the attention which may be needed if the these dry conditions remain. Places in central and eastern areas could be in drought if this continues...

[summer blizzard]

Yes, the cold is taking away the attention which may be needed if the these dry conditions remain. Places in central and eastern areas could be in drought if this continues...

Things are not that bad yet but with average rainfall in January and March overall we have to bear in mind the extremely dry 3 weeks in February and now a good week or so setting us up for potential late summer/Autumn problems if it persists.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Things are not that bad yet but with average rainfall in January and March overall we have to bear in mind the extremely dry 3 weeks in February and now a good week or so setting us up for potential late summer/Autumn problems if it persists.

Yeah, people said that last year.....'rainfall in summer is no good etc etc', 'drought cometh' etc. Look how that turned out

In all seriousness, we've seen enough rainfall in the last year to tide us over until next winter.

Edited March 29, 2013 by CreweCold

[CongletonHeat]

Some fields are still flooded here, water table is really high still, no chance of drought unless no rain for 4 months.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34678.aspx?type=Region&term=Southeast&Severity=3

Edited March 29, 2013 by CongletonHeat

[mike Meehan]

Eventually it will warm up and relentlessly posting ensembles and FI charts to show this will eventually come right in much the same way as continually posting cold FI charts will also verify - eventually.

Realistically though it will be a long haul out of the cold blocked pattern as John Holmes rightly points out by referring to the 500hPa anomaly charts for guidance.

We are in a fantastic synoptic period and there is a unique beauty in the relentless cold dry weather which is so rare and different from the usually bland mediocre stuff we normally have to endure. I raise a glass to the mighty Northern Block - just hope if it does decline it will come back again fully invigorated for a 6 months stint November thru' April next winter would do nicely.

I suppose the good news is that if the northern block decides to become a lasting feature, eventually as the northern latitudes heat up, as they will with the progression of the seasons, it will eventually bring most of us us into quite a pleasant easterly air stream, except for some parts of the east coast which are likely to experience the North Sea Stratus from time to time.

I recall some of this when I was living in Lincolnshire when we had some dull misty cool days in June during 1959, though that summer turned out to be quite exceptional overall.

Edited March 29, 2013 by mike Meehan

[Guest pjl20101]

Amazingly Crewe Cold it says we've had above average rainfall this month my friend. At the moment CFS are predicting a wet April and this is leading to even more chaos as the latest set ups seem to be differing to it. Like I said in another post the MJO will be elementary to look at as that is driving the weather as it is currently, it is too strong for words too.

[Panayiotis]

Well this cold spell along with the dry conditions started on Sunday (24th) a continuation of the current conditions is expected right up to the 5th of April: (for my area)

http://modeles.meteo...un=18&runpara=0

That makes it 13 days with v.little, if any rain those water meter levels,I would expect to be quite different in 13days, and who knows it could continue...

EDIT:The features on here are quite useful

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map&map=Temperature&fcTime=1364860800&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=54.63

Edited March 29, 2013 by Panayiotis

[bluearmy]

Some interest from that possible cold pool and associated instability on ecm days 5 and 6.

Gfs brings an fi renewed push from the east.

Gem solution in fi not disimilar to ecm but further east.

The ao looks to remain neg though the flirting with west based -nao remains a theme with the nwp post mid range. So far, this has failed to verify such that we lose heights to our north to allow the trough to dig south to our west and raise heights over europe.

Still hints of a way out but nothing convincing at all

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Another big step away from any warmth this morning and back into cold , looks like a northerly is on its way with low pressure to our south signalling more wintry weather maybe ?

The ECM especially more bullish on the northerly

This has been a very long year , I saw my first snow fall in October , its been cold since NOVEMBER . A good 6 months of winter , I haven't cut my grass since September . I hope April brings some warmer weather , but I feel one more snow event may well be on the way in the next 14 days or so fist .

[Gibby]

Hi Folks. Here is my report on the 00z output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Good Friday March 29th 2013.

All models show the weather pattern locked and static with High pressure to the North and lower pressure to the South of the UK. Through the Easter weekend a ridge lies South from the North down over the UK keeping most areas dry and bright with some sunshine by day but with widespread night frosts, sharp in places. A few wintry showers will run into Eastern coastal counties at times and today and tonight will see a more cloudy spell with rain and sleet in the far South and SW where it will be windy All areas will experience temperatures well below average for the time of year.

GFS then moves us through next week with a strengthening anticyclone just to the North of Scotland slow moving. With Low pressure to the South the pressure gradient over the UK increases with the keen and in places bitter NE wind developing again carrying cloud cover and limited sunshine to all parts. the continued risk of wintry showers will continue, especially in the East. Through week 2 the High to the North weakens somewhat and even colder air migrates SW from Scandinavia and coupled with unstable air increases the risk of snow showers for all areas with even some longer spells of sleet and snow in the South for a time. Things do moderate somewhat again before the end of the run but it closes with the UK still under chilly East or NE winds between High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South.

The GFS Ensembles show a painfully slow progression to less cold conditions reached at the end of the run this morning. It takes the entire two weeks for temperatures to approach the average for what will be by then mid April. There is a lot of dry weather shown though with just the hint of slightly less settled conditions by the end of the run.

The Jet flow shows a continuation of the flow well to the South of the UK for the time being. There are signs of a break up of the flow as it turns North over the Atlantic by the end of next week but this looks a little more precarious in structure than that shown last evening.

UKMO shows post Easter to continue largely cold and settled with High pressure continuing to ridge down from the North with it's 144hr chart showing the UK miles away from the prospect of anything remotely less cold as it strengthens the NE flow over the UK later next week.

GEM has a stronger NE flow over the UK throughout the Post Easter period before the High to the north slips South over the UK cutting off the flow and bringing quiet settled weather but with less cold daytime conditions but still widespread night frosts. It looks though a Northerly could develop behind a SE moving trough of Low pressure over the UK at the end of the run renewing the cold feed following a band of rain, this time from the North.

ECM today shows a cold and strengthened NE flow over the UK post Easter with some wintry showers in the East. Through the week and following weekend the flow is shown to back North then NW with some wintry showers as the link between the Greenland high and the recently absent Azores version is severed allowing a rapidly deepening Atlantic Low to bring a rapid change to less cold but windy and wet conditions around 10 days time, especially in the NW. Temperatures would recover to normal values though in the South and East soon after the term of the run.

In Summary there is some glimmers of hope on the horizon again this morning as ECM again offers a way out of the blocked pattern in 10 days time. However, it is an ocean of time away in weather terms and there is plenty of other output which looks less encouraging with Northern blocking remaining dominant. The one consolation is a lot of dry weather to be enjoyed with no more than wintry showers at times and probably very few of these for most. The most troublesome feature of the coming two weeks of weather for gardeners and growers is the continuing strong risk of potentially damaging night frosts which show little sign of releasing their impact for the next week to 10 days at least. Have a good start to Easter and see you after the 12zs.

[mushymanrob]

March 2013 has I suspect surprised many, it has certainly surprised me, unlike Dec 2010 when the longrange forecasts in mid Nov were all painting a very cold blocked outlook and then we had the record cold snowy spell at the end of Nov, which meant I wasn't surprised to see how it panned out, there was no similiar clear signal of a very cold March back in mid-late Feb despite the second half of Feb being quite wintry cold and blocked. Indeed March 2013 started on a very average note, and I thought the very cold snowy spell 9-12 March would be shortlived.. its been a superb month for those who like the perfect winter synoptics of a dense cold pool of air to the NE and strong block stretching across scandi and into greenland, with a very southerly tracking jet, and atlantic attacks from the SW becoming unstuck and forced to retreat back south, the synoptics of last Friday are the kind that cold snow lovers dream of.

perhaps looking back, the ecm was onto something as from mid jan onwards it had been predicting some extremely cold weather in fi that always downgraded until mid march... maybe that was a signal missed, dismissed (i know i did...)

no respite this morning, next week is looking unpleasant with that nagging breeze back after some tempering this weekend. its looking like cloud could be an issue too.

the bad news this morning is that another cold reload looks likely from the north as another pool of arctic air spreads into northern europe, thus prolonging the cold well into april and could well see the month out, dispite this mornings ecm @ t240 suggesting a change.

theres no tangible pattern change hinted at anywhere, it goes on.

[bluearmy]

Ecm ens : good support for the upper trough days 5 and 6 just to our south. thereafter, the idea of a scandi trough has mean support and this takes our mean uppers lower than previous runs. -6 rather than -4. However, a mean northerly will likely mean higher temps than the current easterly as dp's probably rather higher. Still a cold outlook. Day 10 mean with icelandic/greeny ridge, scandi trough and arctic high.

On reflection, i think we can call it a 'sceuro trough'. Little sign of any euro height rises.

Edited March 29, 2013 by bluearmy

[Purga]

Great runs again this morning, just the end of ECM not too clever but not that worried.

Typical of the ECM run

GFS again hinting at some snowy fun around 8-9th April

What we need for maximum impact is the precipitation to be overnight and high intensity to up the proper snow chances.

The ECM party pooper at the end

Not supported by the mean

which keeps it nicely on the cold side.

Edited March 29, 2013 by Purga

[johnholmes]

I am not about to say the 500mb anomaly charts show a pattern change, however!

The output this morning from the ECMWF-GFS outputs is different from their issue yesterday. Not GFS it continues with what seemed to be the pattern developing over the past 4-5 days. That is a gradual build of heights just north of the UK and the main Atlantic flow going towards Iberia and the Med. It does this again this morning much as the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 did last evening. ECMWF has a different idea, from itself over the past few days and the other two. An instantaneous dismissal of the upper ridge or a shift of many hundreds of miles west with a fairly deep trough in its place allowing a marked northerly upper flow into the UK.

You all know my views on consistency with one another and themselves over several days for belief in any pattern showing, especially any marked changes. Just what ECMWF is up to I have no idea but it certainly is a change from its outputs over the past 5-7 days.

Time will tell, ask me again in 3 days or so?

anyway below is the output from ECMWF and GFS this morning.

http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html

copied into the other thread as well

Edited March 29, 2013 by johnholmes

[phil nw.]

Notable how that 0C 850hPa line is so far south around the globe as we go into April.

UKMO T72hrs.

The PFJ running through S Europe with the cold air spilling well down into mid-latitudes.

At least for the UK the next week to 10 days looks mainly dry but still with some sharp frosts at night and that persistent easterly wind making it feel raw at times.

Edited March 29, 2013 by phil nw.