Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been looking at that seeing as the Greenland Sea ice is down? Is it lack of transport or is it melting, uber fast, right up at the NE tip of Greenland?

 

All the ice that is 'mangled' does seem to melt out very fast as soon as it encounters 'melt conducive' conditions?

[BornFromTheVoid]

There doesnt seem to be much export out of Fram these days and ice in the Fram straight seems to be extremely low, maybe a little glimmer of good news for icephiles?

 

That's true, both a combination of reduced export and thinner ice mean that there is much less ice left in the Greenland sea at the moment.

 

I thought this graph might show just how impressive the recent sea ice extent losses have been, despite the apparent record cold north of 80N reported in other threads.

 

 

This shows the 7 day loss in millions of km2. Day 1 is June 1st, up to day 92 which is August 30th.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for that BFTV!

 

I'm sure that is going to be very interesting over the next few months and, should the 'slow start' really have masked the ice being primed for melt later, it will highlight the rapid loss of the 'primed ice'?

 

In some ways we may all have focused on 'temp' too much and neglected the mechanical weathering that the thin pack has been forced to endure over the slow loss period? After all the name of the game is 'ice melt' and it does not matter if that ice melts in June or in Aug just that the ice melts?

 

If you have two areas of ice, one is solid contiguous ice and the other is the same volume but mangled into floes and ice rubble. We let the 'solid ice' have a 2012 like period of melt and the rubble we keep cool until half of the solid ice has melted away.If we then allowed the mangled ice to see 'average' 2012 type melt conditions as well which would melt away to nothing the quickest?

 

This is the issue I have and sadly I think I have to 'watch' what happens to find the answer?

 

  I do suspect that it would be a close run thing though even with the mangled ice starting it's melt cycle with twice the volume that the solid ice sheet had left?

[knocker]

Yesterdays NSIDC extent

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well there were cliffs and there are cliffs!!!

 

I suppose this is what happens when you have 'normal total melt out' areas doing their thing along with a mass of very trashed ice in areas that do not usually 'melt out'?

 

Question has to be how long can it carry on like this? We are getting to the end of Hudson and the like but we still have Beaufort yet to go? Are we already seeing Central Arctic Basin input here or is it all still fringe areas?

 

Well this next two weeks is going to be of great interest to those of us struggling with how this year will end up for sure!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some mixed news in the last day.

 

The PIOMAS model has updated, and now has the end of June 2013 as above 2010, 2011 and 2012

 

The recent NSIDC update mentioned that CryoSat measured the average thickness at the end of March as 8% less than last year, which doesn't show up on the PIOMAS modelled thickness.

 

While it is likely that the current volume is above 2012 and possibly the previous year, just how much is down to model error and due to the extra sea ice coverage in areas like Kara, Baffin and Hudson bay seem open to question.

 

With the daily sea ice losses, IJIS saw a slightly below average drop (compared to recent years) of 72k.

CT saw a large drop of 125k, while the NSIDC continues its high loss rate with a drop of 179k, taking it to 5th lowest on record.

 

 

The current forecast doesn't hold much hope for a significant slow down in the loss rates.

 

A -ve AO is now forecast to build over the next 3 days.

 

GFS t72

 

This drags some warm air in across the East Siberian, Laptev seas and the eastern central Arctic, which already has some highly fragmented and low concentration areas, which you can see on the eastern side of the north pole here. The air pressure set up also brings some compacting winds to the area, sending the ice towards the north pole and Fram strait. 

 

GFS SLP t96 .............................................. GFS Upper Air t96

 

GFS SLP t144 ............................................ GFS Upper Air t144

 

This mixture of compaction, increased export and melting across the eastern Arctic continues towards the end of the high resolution part of the run. As Kara, Baffin and Hudson Bay will likely continue to gradually decline, the reduced area and extent from these other area may keep the melt rate quite high after in about 4 or 5 days.

 

GFS SLP t192 ................................................... GFS Uppers t192

 

So if this forecast comes off, the next 4 or 5 days is likely to be the best opportunity to see the ice loss slow down for a while, even though a significant slow down doesn't look too likely at the moment.

 

The only slight positive in the medium term, is the lack of prolonged warmth across the Canadian Archipelago and the PIOMAS model showing slightly more volume than the last 3 years (but with the caveats for PIOMAS mentioned earlier).

[Gray-Wolf]

I just don't think piomas is able to reflect ice conditions like we see in the central Arctic Basin?

 

I'd be interested to see if Cryosat2 could make reasoned sense of such a mish mash of ice?

 

you know from over on neven's questions are being asked about how some of the modeling is handling conditions this year and , to be fair, it is the first time we have seen such conditions in the Basin?

 

I have to go with 'gut' and say that Feb's mangling set the stage for the degradation of the pack under PAC13 and only now are we beginning to suspect that what we 'expected' from such conditions, bolstered by what our thickness/concentration tools were showing us, may have been wrong and that now, emerging into the sunshine, is the wreckage of the ice cover awaiting the coup de Grace from 2 weeks of full summer sun?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the ice loss contniues even if a tad slower than of late? BFTV posts ( over on the Sea Ice Forum) that we have just equalled 07's 'Million loss weeks' which , considering we are supposed to be having a 'slow/cold' year is no mean feat?

 

It looks like warmer,, more melt friendly, conditions return later in the week so we may see 2013 become the year with the highest 'Million year loss weeks' before the month is out?

 

Ian.

Edited July 7, 2013 by Paul
Removed o/t comments.

[stewfox]

Well the ice loss contniues even if a tad slower than of late? BFTV posts ( over on the Sea Ice Forum) that we have just equalled 07's 'Million loss weeks' which , considering we are supposed to be having a 'slow/cold' year is no mean feat?

 

It looks like warmer,, more melt friendly, conditions return later in the week so we may see 2013 become the year with the highest 'Million year loss weeks' before the month is out?

 

Ian.

 

What's you forecast for summer end ? 8.86m on IJIS at present

 

 We hit 8m on the 11th July last year and sun 7m by 25th July

 

A  sub 7m month end looks likely now and then how much more thin ice can be melted out ?

 

We could hit 4m season end if we follow 2012 I guess.

 

.

Edited July 8, 2013 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

It is really hard to gauge it Stew? I do not even know if I can trust my usual sources this time around as we are seeing ( I believe) a very novel set up?

 

I 'feel' that it will end up sub 07' ( area) and , if my cogitations are proven fact, then a close thing for another record 'area' year?

 

Before all of this 'stop start' season had started I had posted a new record year ( on the basis of ice type and thickness and an 'average' weather' season) so I suppose I have to stick with that and go down with my ship is She should flounder?

[knocker]

Current concentrations.

 

 

[knocker]

A new normal for Arctic sea ice

July 2, 2013

Arctic sea ice continues to track below average but remains well above the levels seen last year. The relatively slow ice loss is a reflection of the prevailing temperature and wind patterns. As of July 1, NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis and the Sea Ice Index have transitioned to a new 30-year baseline period, 1981 to 2010.

 

 

 

[knocker]

Unprecedented no melting half way though melt season north of 80n ,ice free Arctic summers not happening. http://ocean.dmi.dk/...meant80n.uk.php

 

 

 

In view of the post above and the greater information at the link, I would be grateful if you would elaborate on, "Unprecedented no melting half way though melt season north of 80n". The debate on ice free summers is a separate issue.

 

This is their analysis.

 

Average sea ice extent for June 2013 was 11.58 million square kilometers (4.47 million square miles). This was 310,000 square kilometers (120,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average (the new baseline period) of 11.89 million square kilometers (4.59 million square miles). In comparison, the 1979 to 2000 period that we previously used averaged 12.16 million square kilometers (4.70 million square miles). June 2013 was 760,000 square kilometers (293,000 square miles) above the record low June extent in 2010.

 

Edited July 9, 2013 by knocker

[picog]

Are these the first "puddles" at the (drifting) north pole webcams? If so, still later than usual.

[Gray-Wolf]

Webcam2 has been showing 'open water' to the left mid distance for a number of weeks now? I discussed the possibilities of what the 'crackopalypse' event , in feb, would bring to the pack and the same must applyto the areas impactedby PAC13? Does a well fragmented pack hold onto 'meltwater lakes/pools' or do these instantly drain into the ocean below ( and so how does this impact albedo and melt rates?). The Buoy data would appear to show that the stations beyond 80N have no surface snow any more so melt must have been ongoing there for a while?

 

This season has brought up a number of questions that only the passing of the season ( I believe) can answer?

 

Better than watching snow melt though?

[stewfox]

In view of the post above and the greater information at the link, I would be grateful if you would elaborate on, "Unprecedented no melting half way though melt season north of 80n". The debate on ice free summers is a separate issue.

 

This is their analysis.

 

I don't understand this comment. How is the debate on ice free summers separate to what happens to the ice above 80N ?

 

Temperature profiles above 80N are interesting but their not a main driver surely.

 

GW has said we cant look at previous years for specific guidance as each year is very different and I have made that mistake.

[Gray-Wolf]

It's this to-ing and fro-ing between areas stew, it's making a mess ofmost all of the serious threads as any 'correction' of mistaken /incorrect posts on the sceptics thread is not allowed 'in-situ'? We may 'correct' inaccuracies but we must not do so on the thread where the mistakes occur. We are asurred it is for the best and the readership will be bright enough to sortit out for themselves???

 

I do think that the Arctic is changing from the way it used to opperate and so we cannot rely , during this 'transition period', on observations that once held true? I'm sure if we find an anologue of this season's weather in the pre -07' record we will find what happened back then will be very different to what we are currently witnessing across the pole?

 

We are told that the next week will provide another week of heavy losses and that now Beaufort, which reportedly had very thin ice, will join in the fun?

 

I'm finding it hard to believe just how quickly the year is catching upto the other high loss years even with such a ripplingly slow start to the melt season proper. If I am right in thinking that the 'slow start ' also masked a physical degradation of the basin then any 'gain' we appear to have made from the cold/cloudy months will prove to have been merely an illusion?

[knocker]

The original comment was.

 

Unprecedented no melting half way though melt season north of 80n ,ice free Arctic summers not happening

 

 

As the thread is about the 2013 melt, as far as I'm aware nobody was forecasting ice free this summer so this in the plural  "ice free Arctic summers not happening" is irrelevant and based on what anyway?

[jonboy]

I did not expect to see a significant increase in the ice minimum but do expect that we will see an increase. There was always going to be a point at which we see a rapid decrease in area given the state of the ice going into the melt season.

What is significant is the time between melt and re freeze as the shorter this period is the less heat that will be stored and therefore the quicker ice formation can occur. If this is the trend then hopefully we are at the start of a new ice build period

[Gray-Wolf]

The only possible connection was the revised prediction from one study that had their model showing 2016 as the earliest we could expect 'an ice free Basin' with the plus or minus 3years caveat?

 

In some quarters they insist that all of Arctic science is telling us that the Arctic will be ice free in 2013??? Silly isn't it?

 

Personally  I've said that before 2020 we will have our first ice free basin and this is based upon the occurance of the 'Perfect Storm' scenario as we saw in 07' ( the studies then showed it occured every 10 to 20yrs but that the two previous 'perfect storm' seasons had been ten years apart?). After the run of 'average Arctic summers' producing melts below 07's record.

 

I find it hard to believe that a proper 'Perfect storm' melt season would do anything other than totally decimate the ice before we got to August of that season?

 

EDIT: Hi J.B.!

but what if we see synoptics that do not allow 're-freeze'? If we see a 'stormy Autumn' then the constant mixing of the surface layers of the ocean, apart from shedding a lot of heat into the atmosphere, would not allow ice to form?

 

With such a topsy turvy season ongoing I'm not ruling out anything!!!

 

EDIT:EDIT; Thanks Four! I rest my case (LOL)

Edited July 10, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[4wd]

The original comment was.

 

 

As the thread is about the 2013 melt, as far as I'm aware nobody was forecasting ice free this summer so this in the plural  "ice free Arctic summers not happening" is irrelevant and based on what anyway?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

The reasons ice has reduced are complex, poorly understood, and not necessarily an effect of global warming - so extrapolating a trend and declaring it as sure-certain outcome is unwise.

[Methuselah]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

The reasons ice has reduced are complex, poorly understood, and not necessarily an effect of global warming - so extrapolating a trend and declaring it as sure-certain outcome is unwise.

Of course it's impossible to state (with 100% certainty) that the recent Arctic ice-melt is the direct result of global warming...That said, to come up with a plausible, and viable, alternative cause is an even more difficult...Try proving (again with 100% certainty) that the real cause was a sudden burst of intense solar activity several hundred years back?

 

But in all probability - and based on the 'usual' laws of physics - there can be no doubt at all, that warming is implicated, somewhere... 

[4wd]

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282004%29017%3C4045%3ATETWIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

The melting highlighted in this 100 years ago is of similar magnitude but did not seem to requite a CO2 driver.
I note attempts to discredit it by suggesting large parts of the Arctic were not monitored at the time
This is true, so ice retreat may have been even greater than was noticed at the time.

We can only go on what was documented at the time and brushing it aside because it does not fit preconceived theory is foolish.

[Gray-Wolf]

I do not think anyone 'brushes aside' the fact that the current turnaround in Arctic temps began over a hundred years ago Four? What is a nonsense is suggesting that it is in any way comparable to the scale of ice volume loss we have witnessed since the 1950's?

 

We need not revisit the 'High Arctic'  surveys that were carried out through the 30's and 40's, and what' ice conditions' are described in the papers, suffice to say it is indeed silly to try and say that ice levels were anything other than reflective of 'The Old Arctic' with mighty Paleocryistic eddifices standing four storeys high in areas now season nor the Ward Hunt shelf ( now lost) that were still present, nor the 'ice islands' so large that they attracted U.S. air bases and could be tracked on radar for decades ( and where so long lived as to be mistaken as 'Islands' by Capt.'s who gave then names!).

 

Global 'Dimming' slowed down the rate of Arctic decline , as indeed it did for global temps, for forty Years but ,post the 'clean Air' acts warming again resumed at an enhanced rate.

 

Nor is anyone denying the 'Natural cycles' that exist and impact the Arctic in a cyclical way?

 

We are losing the globes 'air conditioning unit' at a rapid rate of knots esp, since ice became so thin as to allow the type of large scale total melt out we have become accustomed to since 07's unexpected 'crash'

[Methuselah]

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282004%29017%3C4045%3ATETWIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

The melting highlighted in this 100 years ago is of similar magnitude but did not seem to requite a CO2 driver.

I note attempts to discredit it by suggesting large parts of the Arctic were not monitored at the time

This is true, so ice retreat may have been even greater than was noticed at the time.

We can only go on what was documented at the time and brushing it aside because it does not fit preconceived theory is foolish.

But I didn't mention CO₂...