Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13

[Frosty.]

Our first taste of summery weather arrives on sunday (for some of us) with long sunny spells and temps of 19-20c in favoured areas but then early next week cools down a bit with temps returning to average. The Ecm 00z shows the best outlook for southeastern britain with higher pressure close to the south and east but unsettled for nw britain with low pressure(s) passing to the nw of scotland in FI, but for the south and east it's a drier and warmer outlook than the gfs 00z is showing although there is a warm drier spell on the gfs 00z in FI. The coldest march for 44 years has been followed by one of the coldest starts to april that I can remember but the cold is now on it's last legs and will be gone from all parts of the uk by the end of the coming weekend, next week will probably develop a NW-SE split with the wet and windy weather slowly becoming restricted to n.ireland and n and w scotland with sunnier, drier and warmer weather for southern and eastern britain, especially if the ecm verifies, the gfs 00z looks rather more unsettled for most of next week compared to the ecm but with average to mild temps north to south.

Edited April 9, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble run for Birmingham is finally looking decent with temperature at or above normal from the 13th onwards to the 22nd

Precipitation quickly falls below normal from the 14th onwards to at least the 22nd

Given the warm days and mild nights we get average temperatures above normal

The end is now in sight the cold is on its last legs finally and spring will kick into gear next week should be some colorful scenes with some spring bulbs still to flower yet mainly the Daffs

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM ensemble run for Birmingham is finally looking decent with temperature at or above normal from the 13th onwards to the 22nd

Precipitation quickly falls below normal from the 14th onwards to at least the 22nd

Given the warm days and mild nights we get average temperatures above normal

The end is now in sight the cold is on its last legs finally and spring will kick into gear next week should be some colorful scenes with some spring bulbs still to flower yet mainly the Daffs

TBH the daffs have had their chance, you'll be lucky to see many of those unless they have a second coming. The ones that did pop up here were severely stunted and a bit sorry looking.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z shows that sunday we will reach the magic 21c which is a notch higher than the 00z showed. Apart from that, broadly similar to the gfs 00z for next week with rather unsettled weather as the jet becomes aligned sw-ne with high pressure slowly coming more into the picture towards the end of next week, so the following weekend would be fine and warm for the southern half of the uk but more unsettled further north with temps closer to average, further into FI shows some ebb and flow in the pressure patterns with lows occasionally affecting the uk but in general, high pressure does tend to boss things in FI but less so for northern britain, temps are up and down but no sign of deep cold returning on the 6z, temps are shown to be going from average to above average, back down to average, then above average and then briefly just below average through FI with the risk of slight frosts but in general it's a more normal mid to late april outlook with some warm spells.

Edited April 9, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

Based on the 06z run more places have a chance of seeing some sunshine on Sunday where the cloud does break temperatures could shoot up to 20c quite easily

By midnight temperatures are still well into the teens

Overnight lows for some are 10 or 11c

BBC weather on the news channel just a few seconds ago indications are it turns milder at the weekend

Edited April 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[phil nw.]

Yes it`s good to see signs of Spring warmth finally in sight from the weekend.The mean outputs have been very steady in showing this scenario for a number of days now.

We have to see the Atlantic trough coming across the country first with some rain and possible snow over the higher ground further north.The milder air then starts to move in from the south by the end of the week.

Some nice looking T120hrs charts show the ridging in the jet stream as high pressure shows it`s hand over the near continent bringing that warmth north on a southerly flow.

Looking further ahead we could be entering quite a dry spell with little rain about even for places further NW.

A couple of ens graphs one for here(Warks)and one for NW Scotland just to compare.

ECM mean at T168hrs shows the general pattern with the Atlantic trough to our NW and the Continental High.

So warmer and mainly dry for many areas seems the outlook for the weekend and into early next week with more sunshine likely the further south and east the location.

[Frosty.]

A very good met office update for warm and dry weather, especially the further south and east you go, it reminded me more of the Ecm 00z op run with pressure becoming high to the south and east of the uk over the near continent with low pressure slowly becoming more confined to nw britain, so this weekend it turns much milder and also wet and windy and by sunday it becomes warm across most of england with a window of fine weather and temps of 19-21c, turning unsettled again by early next and temps back down to average but then tending to warm up and dry up towards the southeast as next week progresses, remaining unsettled for northern areas though. I think there is a chance of a more generally fine spell by the end of next week apart from maybe the very far northwest of the uk so a northwest-southeast split is the favoured option during the mid range outlook with a sw-ne aligned jet. Coming back to the near future, tomorrow shows heavy rain and gales spreading into the southwest, and then across the rest of southern britain by tomorrow night, clearing up on thursday as the main frontal rain spreads up across scotland, and in parts of n and e scotland there will be snow for some areas and strong to gale force ENEly winds, clearing up during friday up there with winds backing NE'ly to N'ly once the rain, sleet and snow finally clears from the far northeast of the uk mainland later on friday.

Edited April 9, 2013 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

TBH the daffs have had their chance, you'll be lucky to see many of those unless they have a second coming. The ones that did pop up here were severely stunted and a bit sorry looking.

thats an odd comment mate, the daffs are just bursting out here and look good. i was in south lancs on saturday and their daffs are in full flower.

feels pretty nice this aft esp if you get out on the breeze. nice to see the models/ runs still promoting something much warmer . tbh we need abit of rain!!!its dried right out here and it looks like we will get some thursday. i havnt got anything to moan about now!lol

[Summer Sun]

We remain on track to hit the first 20c of 2013 this coming weekend

Before we get there it looks like a band of rain will cross the country on Saturday and behind it will be the warm air

Into next week and we develop a north south split with a huge area of high pressure across most of Europe edging into the UK only Scotland is left with lower pressure

Temperatures will be mild for just about all a far cry from what we've suffered so far this year

UKMO and GFS at t144

So remaining chilly till Friday in the north milder in the south from tomorrow as we import warmer winds then its all change for all this weekend with a wet Saturday followed by a warm and for many in the east and south dry Sunday where the cloud does break or thin it would feel very pleasant with temperatures upto 21c more than possible

Edited April 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

i havnt got anything to moan about now!lol

Neither have the daffs, they are happy now

The big pattern change we have been anticipating for so long is going to be underway tomorrow as we lose the easterlies and get southerlies instead, it remains cold in the far northeast of the uk for a few more days though with a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow until friday and then the big low in the atlantic will finally sweep that mild air up across scotland by sunday/monday but with wet and windy weather up there, sunday looks summerlike for most of southern britain, especially central and eastern england with temps possibly reaching 21c as a window of fine and sunny but breezy weather pushes through, but then cooler and more unsettled from the west by early next week.

Edited April 9, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

Just had a look at the latest NAO and that most of its members are above the black 0 line that indicates that pressure over Greenland and Iceland is likely to stay low allowing high pressure to stay over the UK

Edited April 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[Scorcher]

We remain on track to hit the first 20c of 2013 this coming weekend

In the east yes, unfortunately this latest run from GFS has the low pressure further east again which means the warmth could be more restricted to eastern parts with the cloud extending further east for Sunday. Still time for adjustments the other way, we will have to wait to see where ECM places the low.

[SLEETY]

The ECM ensemble run for Birmingham is finally looking decent with temperature at or above normal from the 13th onwards to the 22nd

Precipitation quickly falls below normal from the 14th onwards to at least the 22nd

Given the warm days and mild nights we get average temperatures above normal

The end is now in sight the cold is on its last legs finally and spring will kick into gear next week should be some colorful scenes with some spring bulbs still to flower yet mainly the Daffs

Well you have been saying this for weeks,so it had to finally happen I guess

Shame the cold couldn't have hanged around for another couple of weeks as that could have been two record cold months in a row.

Still i'm sure their will be more to come in the months and years ahead.

[Guest pjl20101]

According to Gavin p there may be a small concern with the AO and the fact that it may go negative again may enhance retrogression of the hp over us thus encouraging northerly winds in the latter stages of the month. Don't know with whether the MJO supports this, but it seems alarming. I started to see those retrogression signs on the GFS tonight, it hasn't got northerlies on it currently, but it may have.

[Milhouse]

We remain on track to hit the first 20c of 2013 this coming weekend

The peak of the warmth looks in my area too. A positive UKMO 12z with low pressure ushering up some pleasant warmth on Saturday and building further into Sunday. The low clears northwards taking the very warm uppers away from the UK leaving us in a slightly cooler but still very mild SW flow for Monday.

[johnholmes]

copied from in depth area

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/page__gopid__2678547#entry2678547

[Summer Sun]

ECM once again places the low in a better place at t120 keeping it further west than GFS does

Compared to GFS

ECM = Bank!

There will be a breeze for the UK but it will be a warm one and not a nagging cold easterly

Edited April 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[Milhouse]

ECM at 120h has a finger of warm uppers coinciding nicely with the UK, not 500 miles to the east as happens all too often with summer spanish plumes. Looks fairly settled for most away from the far northwest and winds brisk but not overly strong.

[Cloud 10]

Get ready.....its coming.

[Summer Sun]

t168 see's the lows tracking across Scotland and cooler air moving back in from the west

Where as GFS prefers to keep us warmer with south westerly winds

[Cheshire Freeze]

Get ready.....its coming.

I've heard that one before

[Methuselah]

Get ready.....its coming.

As my mum always used to tell me: so is Christmas!

[Summer Sun]

t192 see's the high ridging up from the south and it will quickly re-introduce the warmer air

t216 see's warmer air taking over once more

Edited April 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[matty40s]

As my mum always used to tell me: so is Christmas!

That was when you were naughty in February though.

[Milhouse]

Looks a very pleasant week in store for the southern half of the UK next week. Monday and Tuesday look rather showery and there could be one or two more organised bands of rain mixed in but these look fairly weak features. From midweek onwards dry and warm conditions move in, mainly to southern Britiain.