Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Frosty.]

A reasonably good Gfs 06z op run today, especially for the southern half of the uk, bar a couple of bands of heavy and thundery rain later next week, most of the run is influenced by the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridging northeastwards across southern and central  britain, rather more changeable and cooler further north but with occasional fine and warmer spells. Next wednesday brings a band of heavy rain north and east across the uk but soon followed by sunshine and scattered showers, most of those across the north & west, there is then a rapid improvement with another small area of high pressure extending it's influence further north and west so another brief fine and warm spell before a thundery trough moves northeast across the uk next friday with a large area of torrential rain, but that's about it really in terms of meaningful rainfall for the south, the southern half of the uk then becomes generally settled and warmer again.

[shedhead]

Without question an improvement on the 00 GFS Frosty, but as yesterdays 12 ECM highlighted very nicely there is no point in cherry picking the best looking runs - not that you are of course!

 

JH's post from earlier this morning suggests troughing is far more likely than ridging over or close to the UK next week and that looks about right to me, the only real question being how long will it last?

Edited June 7, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

Without question an improvement on the 00 GFS Frosty, but as yesterdays 12 ECM highlighted very nicely there is no point in cherry picking the best looking runs - not that you are of course!

 

JH's post from earlier this morning suggests troughing is far more likely than ridging over or close to the UK next week and that looks about right to me, the only real question being how long will it last?

I wouldn't argue against anything JH posts but I think there are reasonable grounds for optimism for at least the southern half of the uk to improve significantly again after the unsettled interlude which is likely to span the midweek period, thereafter it looks to me like a northwest-southeast split with the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridging in regularly but low pressure to the northwest of scotland, sometimes in the iceland region, keeping the northwest corner of the uk in a more changeable regime with a mix of the settled/unsettled and more variable temperatures as a result.

[AWD]

My opinion on the developments over the next week or 10 days or so is actually pretty similiar to Frosty's previous post, with the better conditions towards the south and east and more unsettled conditons towards the north and west after viewing all the latest data collectively. I am however, a little less optimistic on the temperature side of things than Frosty, but variances like that can change either way with just a tweak of the upper air pattern.

Nice to see some thunderstorm activity across parts of the South West and Southern Coastal counties today. Previous FAX charts did have the front from France coming very close to southern England. Some thunderstorm or shower activity is likely to continue through SW England for the remainder of today;

It certainly has the look about it here in Bristol currently, with overcast skies and a muggy feel. Elsewhere should see a continuation of the sunny skies you currently have.

This weekend is looking sunny and pleasent for of us, with just an unlucky few stuck under more persistent cloudcover;

Temperatures, although not as high as what may have been previously modelled this week, still look pleasent enough for most of us, with high teens and the low 20c's typically;

Monday again similiar, although cloudcover will increase from the west ahead of a weather front associated with a complex area of low pressure in the Atlantic;

Therefore temperatures, especially in the west, likely to be a degree or 2 cooler at this stage. Tuesday we start to see the front spread east across the UK. The east still looks like holding into the drier and warmer temperatures, the west becoming wetter and cooler as Tuesday progresses. You can see the progress of the rainband below now coming into model agreement from both the GFS;

and the ECM;

with a band of rain crossing the country on Tuesday into Wednesday. This then heralds a change to cooler and more changeable conditions for a while.

However, for the south, I don't see too much rainfall really, and what does fall (there will be some obviously) is more likely to be convective rather than frontal. A look at the GEFS for London show that after a couple of days midweek, conditions become drier again with just smaller rainfall spikes appearing, suggestive of sunshine and a few showers;

We also see, for London again, a slow rise in SLP values as we end next week and proceed into the following week;

No great anticyclone likely, no, but something resembling a ridge is plausible from next weekend onwards. This is something also being hinted at by the EC Op at day 10;

and GFS Op at day 10;

You can see the Azores HP cell very close to the South West there. This should help settle things down somewhat for southern England. Some showers obviously can't be ruled out but plenty if sunshine should be evident here if this we're to verify. Further north you go, you do look like being closer to the trough, as shown by the charts above, so a more prolonged period of changeable weather is plausible here, with perhaps some windy conditons from time to time too.

You can also see with the EC Birmingham ens, a relaxation in rainfall scenarios after the wet midweek period next week;

So there is gathering support for a north/south split to develop later next week onwards. As for temperatures, after the pleasent start to next week, temperatures do look like dropping back to the fresh side of average for most of us. The GEFS posted earlier in this post show this as do the EC Birmingham ens;

And the latest EC 32 day suite for Birmingham also shows a continuation of average to below average temperature throughout the remainder of June;

This is also backed up by the latest Met Office outlook. With LP to the north west and HP to the SW, we will see a westerly airflow over the UK. This may go part way to explain the temperature anomaly.

So, as I see it currently. A midweek spell of rain is likely for all of us, with fresher temperatures gradually reaching us all. Things then dry up in the south of the UK, whilst the north continues to see further unsettled weather as we end next week and enter the following week. This thanks to some sort of ridge from the nearby Azores HP cell. Temperatures, with winds from the Atlantic quarter no better than average for many of us from midweek next week onwards however, below average under any rainfall.

You can see the scenario of HP to the SW and LP to the NW on the EC ens SLP mean;

Hence the westerly airflow.

Edited June 7, 2013 by AWD

[Neilsouth]

All I want to know is, are we going to get rid of this horrific north east/east wind?

[Frosty.]

All I want to know is, are we going to get rid of this horrific north east/east wind?

yes I think the winds over the weekend will fall light with high pressure centred over the top of the uk and then a southerly/sely breeze picking up early next week.

[Bottesford]

Yes a change of wind direction to southerly rather than easterly will really help temperatures in this area and those to the east of here where the cold North Sea has really kept things on the cool side.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Yes a change of wind direction to southerly rather than easterly will really help temperatures in this area and those to the east of here where the cold North Sea has really kept things on the cool side.

yes a very cool wind here in skeggy but i have sat in garden sunbathing for last 4 hours def feel warmth from sun cloudlless skies now will make a big diff with wind change as weve missed out on all the heat this week

[Summer Sun]

Looks like we'll some some warm humid air early next week things could go boom in some parts given the heat

 

 

Longer term GFS wants to rise pressure from weekend as per ECM last night

 

Edited June 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[AWD]

GFS Op isn't a million miles away from how I think the next couple of weeks will pan out. A bit on the warm side but drier to the south and always wetter to the north.

Edited June 7, 2013 by AWD

[Summer Sun]

Haven't you posted the 0z UKMO Gav?

 

Whoops, looks like UKMO is running late tonight I thought it had updated

 

Anyway Monday sees the high sitting west of Ireland waiting to move in Mondays looks like the last widespread sunny day from this current spell

 

Edited June 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

GFS Op isn't a million miles away from how I think the next couple of weeks will pan out. A bit on the warm side but drier to the south and always wetter to the north.

 

Consistently warm for the forseeable future with no sign of anything cool or hot on the horizon. But at the moment i would say something hot developing is more probable with high pressure sitting to the east of the UK next week.

[AWD]

Consistently warm for the forseeable future with no sign of anything cool or hot on the horizon. But at the moment i would say something hot developing is more probable with high pressure sitting to the east of the UK next week.

In FI yes, but in the reliable it fluctuates between warm and cool depending on your location.My personal opinion is that the HP to the SW is going to be more influential to our weather than any pressure to our east. Edited June 7, 2013 by AWD

[Milhouse]

By next Saturday the GEFS mean suggests a warm SW flow, but we will have to wait till nearer the time to see if any trailing fronts get stuck over the UK.

 

[mushymanrob]

In FI yes, but in the reliable it fluctuates between warm and cool depending on your location.My personal opinion is that the HP to the SW is going to be more influential to our weather than any pressure to our east.

 

shouldnt complain at that, but it would be nice for once to get a spell of real heat off the continent..

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is stuck this evening at t96

[Milhouse]

By Sunday a definite band of high pressure has developed stretching from the Azores into Scandinavia. Me thinks there could be some very toasty 12z ensemble members.

 

[Tony27]

this chart looks like there is high pressure over central and eastern areas http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013060712/gfs-0-144.png?12

 

but there could be some heavy rain http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013060712/gfs-2-150.png?12

 

people must remember to always look at the precipation charts, sometimes seeing red or orange on a chart doesn't always mean warm and sunny

Edited June 7, 2013 by Tony27

[Milhouse]

UKMO worth waiting for as it builds a nice area of high pressure at T+144

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO worth waiting for as it builds a nice area of high pressure at T+144

 

 

Wow that was unexpected!! but most welcome a new trend or has it gone off on one? time will tell

 

From this

 

 

To this

 

 

In just 24 hours seems very quick to me ECM will be interesting

Edited June 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

Before T144 though UKMO looks unsettled and windy, i am sick and tired of this wind, it is not doing my tomatoes any good either, i hope the GFS comes off it is warmer and calmer with a nice bit of warm rain thrown in next thursday, a shame all that heat stays in france though 

[Frosty.]

Things could get pretty lively later next week if the Gfs 12z verified, the 6z had 2 bands of heavy and thundery rain pushing from southwest to northeast from next midweek and the 12z looks similar, things look fairly benign until early next week with high pressure slowly migrating eastwards with atlantic low pressure slowly edging east, it looks like this weekend will be pleasantly warm with long sunny spells for many but some low cloud and mist flirting with eastern coasts, then next week it becomes even warmer as we pick up a southerly breeze from the hotter near continent, then pressure falls and we have that more disturbed spell from midweek but with some fine and warm weather too. During most of FI the azores/atlantic anticyclone repeatedly builds northeastwards into the uk with the best of the settled and warmer spells across the southern half of the uk but rather more changeable further north at times.

Edited June 7, 2013 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

Wow that was unexpected!! but most welcome a new trend or has it gone off on one? time will tell

 

From this

 

 

To this

 

 

In just 24 hours seems very quick to me ECM will be interesting

 

yeah it seems abit too progressive, however isnt it similar to last nights ecm? if so there just might be something brewing!

[Summer Sun]

yeah it seems abit too progressive, however isnt it similar to last nights ecm? if so there just might be something brewing!

 

ECM was at the t192 stage I think some where roughly where GFS is with high pressure on its 12z run I agree though something could be brewing thats all 3 showing pressure rising later next week again at different times the ensemble runs will be interesting over the coming days

[johnholmes]

Any thoughts on the low cloud potential tonight/tomorrow morning? BBC says it'll roll in tonight and be a cloudy start tomorrow. This will really impair heating my yard for a bbq later pushing it over the edge into too cold to bother.Anything in the model output that would help in knowing where or how extensive it will be? I'm not sure what data to look at - if indeed it is available.

hi bottyNot time at the moment but I will post a pdf file which may help you waht to look for, what to use etc.The current sat picc shows no sign of the low cloud Met are predicting will spread inland? Edited June 7, 2013 by johnholmes