Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Frosty.]

So instead of it being a mixed summer. Lets look for the worse summer in living memory and mention it because a few models has pointed to a bad spell coming up.. Summer 2013 will be better than last year in my opinion.. so 2007 can be scrubed for starters.

Agreed, there is way too much gloom about where some of the models are trending, some should lighten up and enjoy the good weather rather than worrying how the next 3 months might unfold.

[johnholmes]

At least the next 144 hours look warm and sunny, there is too much looking for trouble when we have a lot more to enjoy from this current warm and settled spell, the outlook will change, just enjoy what we have while we have it.

the warm bit stopped today for many parts this side of the Pennines, 5C lower here today and it felt even less warm than that at Trent Bridge where the sun finally appeared after 6pm!

[AWD]

Worth noting the upper level anomaly charts are quite different from each other tonight;

Whilst the probable change to more changeable conditions are apparent with them and tonight's NWP output, the depth and duration is far from determined.

There will be variations on the above over the coming days NWP output so I wouldn't take any individual run too seriously at this stage.

Sunshine and showers still favoured more so than frontal rain IMO currently.

Edited June 5, 2013 by AWD

[Hathers]

I think we should enjoy the pleasant weather whilst we have it. This weekend is Cosford air show and we are probably going to see the best weather we have seen for several years. For the last few years it has been unsettled at this time of the month.

[Frosty.]

the warm bit stopped today for many parts this side of the Pennines, 5C lower here today and it felt even less warm than that at Trent Bridge where the sun finally appeared after 6pm!

Today was nice and warm in some parts of the uk and that will be the case for the next five days at least, most of the areas that were dull and cooler today will be warmer and sunnier from tomorrow.

[bradymk]

I think todays CFS could be a good indicator of weather in the next 4 weeks. 

Week 1 shows the higher pressure/higher heights moving northwards this coming week and by week 2 we have a trough to the west of the UK that could provide quite a messy breakdown. Showers will become more frequent next week, particularly towards the end of the week and temperatures will also begin to fall a little.

 

 

Week 3 (19th to 25th) of the CFS forecast shows the trough moving eastwards over the UK with lower heights over the UK. More unsettled weather likely with showers and longer spells of rain and temperature likely to be below average/average in drier spells.

 

Week 4 is interesting as heights increase again to the south west. This is evident in week 3 also however by week 4 the heights have moved further north eastwards towards southern UK. That would likely result in southern UK having the driest/brightest and warmer weather but it may continue to move northwards in time to provide another settled period for most of the UK by the beginning of July.

 

 

I think the CFS forecast above fits into my idea of thinking for the next 4 weeks. I think we now have good agreement that the current settled spell will breakdown next week. Whether this is into showers/sunshine or longer spells of rain is uncertain and depends on the positioning of the trough to our west. However I do think this trough will move eastwards into the following week and give us some unsettled weather for a time with longer spells of rain. I think after a very pleasant start to June, the second half could be unsettled and cool at times. I do however think the first week of July could be when things start to settle down again, especially in southern UK and the week 4 chart illustrates this is plausible.

 

PS. A little interest for July - CFS forecasts a potential summery month, with higher hearts across NW Europe on both its monthly forecast and seasonal forecast.

 

I think its time for an above average month, hopefully the next 3!

Edited June 5, 2013 by bradythemole

[DR(S)NO]

Today was nice and warm in some parts of the uk and that will be the case for the next five days at least, most of the areas that were dull and cooler today will be warmer and sunnier from tomorrow.

Agreed Frosty..still looks as though many areas will enjoy some fine early summer weather over the next few days....such a shame that predictions of temps into the mid 20s or even higher look unlikely now. Edited June 5, 2013 by DR(S)NO

[nitro_deluxe]

More twists than your average grand prix circuit..this model watching! keeps us or some of us busy mind 

 

May the warmth continue..

[mountain shadow]

No Atlantic breakdown on the GFS Ops 0z run although it does instead bring a thundery plume up from the continent.

Lets hope the ECM holds the trough in the Atlantic also.

[mushymanrob]

So instead of it being a  mixed summer.  Lets look for the worse summer in living memory and  mention it  because a  few models has pointed to a  bad spell coming up.. Summer 2013 will be better than last year in my opinion.. so  2007 can be scrubed for starters.

 

why?

 

i personally dont expect anything like last year or 07, but theres no reason why another washout summer cannot evolve after a nice start like 07. i for one wont be scrubbing those chances, as has been said - the background signals are not very promising atm for a warm, sunny, dry summer.

[johnholmes]

Today was nice and warm in some parts of the uk and that will be the case for the next five days at least, most of the areas that were dull and cooler today will be warmer and sunnier from tomorrow.

It was indeed and will continue this way today and probably the weekend. Nothing changes the accuracy of my comment though. The areas not joining in this sunshine spree remain where I spoke of. 1 hour of sunshine yesterday for Nottingham, typical of many areas in eastern England and 14 hours the day before.Predicting when and if the cloud sheet will break for areas adjacent to the N Sea will be a problem I suspect for any forecaster today, and the next few days unless the low level wind direction stops flowing off the N Sea?

[ANYWEATHER]

A mixed outlook for next week, but with lots of uncertainties from gfs and ecm on how unsettled and how much rain there will be. But for now make the most of the fine weather, because as time goes on it looks like ebbing away.....

[Frosty.]

This morning's ukmo 00z is synoptically much nicer than the 12z yesterday with high pressure holding it's ground just to the east and the atlantic low looking less threatening, a warm and increasingly humid continental flow with lots of sunshine but I would suspect a growing risk of thundery showers from the ukmo as next week goes on.

Edited June 6, 2013 by Frosty039

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday June 6th 2013.All models continue to show the fine weather continuing through the rest of the weekend and now the start of next week too as a slender High pressure ridge continues to fend off any attack from Low pressure into the extreme west and South of the UK. While temperatures may fall back a little over the weekend most places will continue to see fine and dry weather with sunny spells and just patchy low cloud near Eastern coasts at times and just a threat from an isolated shower or too over the Scottish mountains or extreme South late in the weekend.GFS then shows much of the working week with a very slow trend downhill of conditions, though even by Thursday many Eastern and Northern parts are still largely fine and bright with just scattered showers affecting more Southern and Western parts. By Friday a small Low develops near Southern England with more appreciable rainfall moving North across the UK followed by a change to more changeable conditions with rain at times and cooler conditions though not a rain-fest for anyone.The GFS Ensembles show a cooling trend from the 9th towards much more average uppers, translated to the surface too as plenty of rain options develop across Southern and Central areas particularly around mid month.The Jet Stream this morning is as before with the flow to the NW weakening away as a new surge of energy crosses the Atlantic towards France next week. The one difference this morning is that it turns NE across SE Britain later indicating a rise of pressure over SE Europe which could encourage a NW/SE split to develop in our weather later with the South and East eventually seeing the most of drier and warmer weather then felt over Europe.UKMO today shows Low pressure to the west of the UK struggling hard to move into the UK with the chance of rain only slowly making inroads into the west of the UK towards the middle of next week. With High pressure of sorts still not far to the East there would still be plenty of fine and at times sunny weather to be enjoyed here.GEM also shows a very slow progression towards more unsettled weather, this time more towards the NW extending slowly to other areas later. On this run the SW flow over the South would become a very warm and humid one with a hot plume grazing the SE late in the week which as the unsettled weather further West interacts with this could give rise to a thundery breakdown for a time across the SE over the weekend.NAVGEM too only shows a slow deterioration in conditions next week with Low pressure slowly becoming more influential towards the west and North. Further South and East amounts of rain would be small and mostly from showers.ECM today looks much more encouraging than last night with the Low held more towards the NW bringing it's main influence to bear mostly across Northern and Western Britain with just a trough cross England midweek with some showers. Behind this though cooler the weather looks like setting up a NW/SE split with rain at times in the NW while the South and East become largely dry and eventually warmer again as High pressure to the South pushes it's influence towards Southern Britain later.In Summary today nothing is any clearer as we look through next week and beyond. While the models continue to jostle over the pattern for next week the fine spell currently enjoyed by most continues to be extended and it now looks like midweek before any real chance of a breakdown seems likely. Even then with such a variety of options available I can put no credence on any one of them verifying until we have more cross model support on such a breakdown and the timing thereof. Meanwhile much of the UK can look forward to at least another 4-5 days at least of good June weather with temperatures very acceptable for the UK if not record breaking.

[Downpour]

why?i personally dont expect anything like last year or 07, but theres no reason why another washout summer cannot evolve after a nice start like 07. i for one wont be scrubbing those chances, as has been said - the background signals are not very promising atm for a warm, sunny, dry summer.

Is that based on science or just a hunch? Long range forecasting is mere guesswork anyway but, for what it's worth, the CFS has a warm July and ECM shows the current fine conditions largely rolling on for the south.

[Summer Sun]

The latest netweather CFS chart for July suggests some significant regional variations for rainfall (Midlands area and central Scotland looks the wettest driest in the south west and in the east) looking at the European version and parts of Spain and into France look like been extremely wet during July and again in August

Edited June 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Bottesford]

Anyone any thoughts or info from the models on this ruddy North Sea low cloud problem we're being afflicted by?

I can see it burning off eventually today but are we likely to see it roll in again during the rest of this 'warm' and 'sunny' spell or are things going to change to allow sunny mornings/days too?

A little info on the short range would be really good - cheers!

[Frosty.]

I tried posting this chart earlier but it kept defaulting to the 12z from yesterday, anyway here is the much more promising ukmo 00z T+144 chart, looks rather peachy.

[William of Walworth]

All these recent models have been really mixed, and hugely varied. This being the case I think anyone attempting a forecast even for as early as next weekend (that of Sat 15th June) would be pushing it confidence-wise. I'm aware JACKONE's is making sterling efforts (in another thread) as are others, and respect to them, but I think all remains to play for even for later in June, personally, and somewhat more so than in some other more 'write-off-likely' Junes of recent years.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Anyone any thoughts or info from the models on this ruddy North Sea low cloud problem we're being afflicted by?

I can see it burning off eventually today but are we likely to see it roll in again during the rest of this 'warm' and 'sunny' spell or are things going to change to allow sunny mornings/days too?

A little info on the short range would be really good - cheers!

It seems that yesterday's banks of cloud are proving more stubborn than expected over much of the Midlands and also east Wales, judging by the satellite images.  There is also a clump of cloud over the far north of England although this is currently thinning out and breaking up.  The cloud belt over the Midlands is currently narrowing though, so chances are you'll see the sun coming through after around mid-afternoon at the latest.

 

I think once these clumps of cloud have gone, a large majority of inland Britain should end up sunny through to the end of the weekend, but with winds coming in from an easterly direction east-coast areas will always be prone to "haar", particularly eastern Scotland and north-east England.

[Bottesford]

Thanks TWS. This kind of cloud really is the party pooper of settled spells in spring and early summer - generally hard to forecast but make huge differences to how the weather feels at the surface.

Fingers crossed for improvement. Trying to brighten here now - but struggling it seems!

[Frosty.]

Here is a recent satellite image showing who is sunny and dull this morning, unlike yesterday, most of the low cloud should burn back to the east coastal strip or further out to sea this afternoon but will probably roll back a little way inland tonight.

Edited June 6, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z shows high pressure trying to re-build next weekend if it did that would be 4 yes 4 successive warm weekends!

 

 

After this pressure slowly looses its grip and moves away

 

[Frosty.]

The warm and sunny weather continues next week across the eastern half of the uk on the Gfs 06z with some areas being very warm, further west there is more action with periods of heavy and thundery rain with a risk of flooding due to torrential downpours, also a risk of a few storms further east due to the warmth and humidity.

[picog]

The warm and sunny weather continues next week across the eastern half of the uk on the Gfs 06z with some areas being very warm, further west there is more action with periods of heavy and thundery rain with a risk of flooding due to torrential downpours, also a risk of a few storms further east due to the warmth and humidity.

Is all that rain coming up from France? In the past few years that seems to be where all the rain problems come from; when rain comes in off the Atlantic you know it's generally going to be of normal intensity, but the continental stuff just seems unpredictable and much more likely to be intense, leading to flash flooding.