Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Tony27]

probably cos it has no idea what to do next, its that useless and fickle

[Frosty.]

The GFS seems to have stalled, I wonder why that is.

Hopefully that atlantic depression will also stall far enough to the west to keep the uk fine and very warm.

[Summer Sun]

Its working again and the good news is the low struggles to get in

 

 

Edited June 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[J10]

While the Atlantic fronts make more of an impression than yesterdays charts showed.

 

Signs that the Azores High is attempting to ridge in at every available opportunity, so perhaps the Jet Stream not as few south as previous summers.

 

I think everyone expects some unsettled weather in the UK summer, but as long as it is the minority not  the majority I think most would setted for that.

[049balt]

Not much rain here.

 

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Milhouse]

UKMO and GFS indicating that the Atlantic is facing a tough task in ridding the UK of the fine and settled conditions. Strengthening winds and rain will edge into western parts early next week, at which point the best of the temperatures and sunshine will transfer over to the eastern half of the UK. High pressure is too strong on the GFS 12z and any low is deflected away by a combination of the Azores high and high pressure to the north. I suspect the current settled spell will have a long way to go yet. June is shaping up quite decent up to the midway point of the month.

[Tony27]

as long as its warm and unsettled i don't mind as you say that is expected in the UK, what i cannot stand is northern blocking and those horrible northerlies or north easterlies giving us many days of 11c or 12c and rain. thankfully the charts look average at least for the foreseeable 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO and GFS indicating that the Atlantic is facing a tough task in ridding the UK of the fine and settled conditions. Strengthening winds and rain will edge into western parts early next week, at which point the best of the temperatures and sunshine will transfer over to the eastern half of the UK. High pressure is too strong on the GFS 12z and any low is deflected away by a combination of the Azores high and high pressure to the north. I suspect the current settled spell will have a long way to go yet. June is shaping up quite decent up to the midway point of the month.

 

This setup reminds me of winter when the coldeis chase the snow only for it to get pushed back and back and back this is whats happening here lows trying to push in only for them to possibly get shifted away again as shown this afternoon

[The Northern Ramper]

This setup reminds me of winter when the coldeis chase the snow only for it to get pushed back and back and back this is whats happening here lows trying to push in only for them to possibly get shifted away again as shown this afternoon

Or like during the winter just gone where you desperately chased a breakdown of cold conditions for weeks.

[Scorcher]

Or like during the winter just gone where you desperately chased a breakdown of cold conditions for weeks.

 

He certainly wasn't the only one, I don't think I've heard so many complaints from people about the weather as I did in March/April!

Edited June 5, 2013 by Scorcher

[Frosty.]

Just like the ukmo 12z, the ecm 12z has rather speeded up the eastward progress of the atlantic depression early next week compared to the relatively settled 00z but now with unsettled, breezier weather making inroads into the western side of the uk but it still looks fine and warm further to the east and especially towards the southeast early next week but by midweek it's unsettled in all areas and turning cooler, this is still far from being resolved though and we still have lots and lots of fine, sunny and increasingly warm weather to look forward to in the next 5 days at least.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

So tonight we have GFS and ECM in disagreement now thats a surprise......................

 

GFS left ECM right

 

 

NAVGEM also takes the unsettled route

 

 

As does GEM

 

 

GFS's route does at this stage seem the most unlikely but time will tell as to how far east this probable low gets

Edited June 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Yes Gavin the tables have turned compared to the more settled 00z but we still have another 5 or 6 days of fine and warm weather ahead before that unsettled spell takes control of all areas and it's still in an unreliable timeframe so 00z could look better again, that is my hope.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Frosty039

[Gibby]

Good evening people. Here is the evening report from the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM for today Wednesday June 5th 2013.All models continue to programme largely fine and warm conditions between now and the start of the new working week. With High pressure remaining close to the UK rain bearing weather systems will be largely held at bay from UK shores albeit that the High gradually weakens with time. After the warmth peaks on Friday slightly cooler uppers will check temperatures back several degrees over the weekend but with maintained sunny spells.GFS then takes us through next week with a through of Low pressure moving slowly East across the UK, weakening as it does with a band of rain, perhaps thundery edging slowly East through the week. Through FI tonight a very changeable pattern evolves with something for everybody looking likely, ranging from rainfall to dry and warm sunny spells and some cooler interludes too in a very confused synoptic progression.The GFS Ensembles look pretty uninspiring for Southern Britain from the 9th, Central areas from the 10th and areas further North later still as more unsettled weather still looks favoured to move up from the South and SW early next week with rainfall most prevalent in Southern and Central regions.The Jet Stream currently flowing lightly well to the North of Britain weakens further over the coming days before aligning to the south of the UK in a rather strengthened format by midweek next week.UKMO tonight shows a Southerly flow developing over the UK early next week as Low pressure deepens to the west spreading cloud, wind and rain slowly East across the UK early next week.GEM keeps fine weather going into next week as a weak ridge holds it's ground South over the UK before pressure falls to the West with rain and eventually cooler and unsettled weather with rain at times develops later in the week.NAVGEM too shows more unsettled weather very slowly making its way steadily but slowly East over the UK through next week with rain at times gradually becoming more extensive later in the week.ECM looks much more unsettled tonight from as early as Tuesday with a more Atlantic based weather pattern developing with fresh winds, cooler conditions and some heavy rain or showers at times for most later in the week.In Summary the pattern is as confusing as ever with a mish mash of solutions on offer next week all eventually leading to a breakdown of sorts later next week. The two worst runs tonight are GEM and ECM who both bring in a full blooded change to cooler and wetter conditions from off the Atlantic later next week with GFS and NAVGEM showing a halfway house in delaying the unsettled weather's onset until later in the week. UKMO offers more unsettled conditions too following the term of it's run but it's progress east and north to all areas seems questionable.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Gefs 12z mean shows a slower breakdown next week compared to the ecm 12z op run but most roads are currently pointing towards at least a short spell of unsettled and cooler weather from around the middle of next week onwards, the recovery then slowly gets underway with pressure beginning to rise slowly to the southwest of the uk which shunts the more unsettled zonal weather gradually further north so an unsettled phase and then slowly becoming warmer and drier again from the southwest as the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridges in again eventually.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Frosty039

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

hi any  one  who looking  forward for  a long dry spell  dont look after 156  hr at the moment 

Edited June 5, 2013 by tinybill

[Frosty.]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

hi any  one  who looking  forward for  a long dry spell  dont look after 156  hr at the moment 

At least the next 144 hours look warm and sunny, there is too much looking for trouble when we have a lot more to enjoy from this current warm and settled spell, the outlook will change, just enjoy what we have while we have it.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Frosty039

[peterf]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

hi any  one  who looking  forward for  a long dry spell  dont look after 156  hr at the moment 

It be welcome by then,we need growth not drought.

[picog]

It be welcome by then,we need growth not drought.

There is no drought anywhere in the UK is there? Ground round here still moist from the last rain, and water table very high for the time of year. Edited June 5, 2013 by picog

[peterf]

There is no drought anywhere in the UK is there? Ground round here still moist from the last rain, and water table very high for the time of year.

who said there was drought?simply stating a wet spell will do no harm to continue nutrient uptake to crops.a continued dry or very dry spell will have adverse affects on certain crops in light soil.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am seeing significant hints on tonight's runs that the "June Return of the Westerlies" could get going as early as mid to late next week, and if that happens, rather than sunshine and showers, we're potentially staring at a dull rainy spell of weather, since the jet is again somewhat further south than usual and any significant toning up of the cyclogenesis and frontal activity is likely to see fronts moving right across the country at regular intervals.  For this reason, those currently enjoying warmth and sunshine, bar today's cloudier blip, should definitely make the most of it- once this spell ends it may be a while before we see another one.

 

However as others have noted the timing is still somewhat uncertain and the UKMO, ECMWF and GFS all have the rain-bearing Atlantic depressions holding off until at least Monday, though cloudier conditions with some rain could penetrate into the far south of England over the weekend.  For most of us the weekend looks like having sunshine and temperatures between 18 and 22C except near east-coast fringes.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Alex]

I am seeing significant hints on tonight's runs that the "June Return of the Westerlies" could get going as early as mid to late next week, and if that happens, rather than sunshine and showers, we're potentially staring at a dull rainy spell of weather, since the jet is again somewhat further south than usual and any significant toning up of the cyclogenesis and frontal activity is likely to see fronts moving right across the country at regular intervals.However as others have noted the timing is still somewhat uncertain and the UKMO, ECMWF and GFS all have the rain-bearing Atlantic depressions holding off until at least Monday, though cloudier conditions with some rain could penetrate into the far south of England over the weekend. For most of us the weekend looks like having sunshine and temperatures between 18 and 22C except near east-coast fringes.

You hinted this current settled spell mirrors June 2007 and some of the outputs tonight mirror the 2nd half of this terrible year! We have a negative AAM and weak MJO so the evidence unfortunately points to another southerly tracking jet with lows stalling to the west of the UK. Is there anyway out of this summer trend?

[weatherguru14]

So instead of it being a  mixed summer.  Lets look for the worse summer in living memory and  mention it  because a  few models has pointed to a  bad spell coming up.. Summer 2013 will be better than last year in my opinion.. so  2007 can be scrubed for starters.

[Alex]

So instead of it being a mixed summer. Lets look for the worse summer in living memory and mention it because a few models has pointed to a bad spell coming up.. Summer 2013 will be better than last year in my opinion.. so 2007 can be scrubed for starters.

Of course summer cannot be written off at this stage but the background signals aren't great and could potentially write off most of the 2nd half of June, a very small positive this evening is that AAM may pick up slightly over the next 5 days. Something to watch!

[ribster]

At least the next 144 hours look warm and sunny, there is too much looking for trouble when we have a lot more to enjoy from this current warm and settled spell, the outlook will change, just enjoy what we have while we have it.

I think you have rose tinted glasses on, 14c isn't warm (max here today) and in the evenings it's chilly by 7/8pm. The outlook into next week doesn't look great - that doesn't write off the rest of summer, but I know where my money is...