Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Frosty.]

A quick glance through various model output and data reveals much of the same really. An increasingly warm and sunny week ahead, rolling into the weekend too with a small chance of some thunderstorm development over southern most counties then and a slow (key word being slow) deterioration in conditions as we progress through week 2.

A look at the Operational output at 144 and the theme is broadly similiar;

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A relaxation in SLP values and a trough to the west in the Atlantic trying it's best to push east, only doing so very slowly. By midweek, the ECM shows the trough just about succeeding, although losing some energy as it does so;

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Something else to note is the noteable trend to increase heights to the north of the UK, with the option of these said heights then moving to either the north west or north east further down the line. The CFS raw output for July shows such a scenario, with Scandiavian heights to our NE and a trough to our SW;

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Just something to watch out for in coming weeks anyway, not too important for now. What we do have good agreement for is a trough to spawn in the mid Atlantic as shown by the 500mb anomaly charts;

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This said trough slowly pushes against the current High Pressure cell we have over or close to the UK now. What is becoming an increasing trend IMO is for the trough to disrupt some energy under the block and south of the UK into Europe. This partly due to the Jet Stream realigning on a more southerly path as shown below;

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Could it be that whilst the HP cell is bringing some summer weather now and this week, it could also assist in the cause of aligning the Jet Stream in a more southerly path in the future. Certainly been hints of a more southerly tracking Jet recently.

The EC Op this morning had some rather warm and humid conditons in it's latter part of it's run. A look at the EC mean output at 144 hours;

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and again at 240 hours;

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shows the Op may have been a tad to slow in pushing the trough further east towards the UK, thus enabling warm, humid air to be pumped north first. A look at the London ens;

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show the Op to be at the warmer end of the temperature suite in FI and at the lighter end of the wind suite;

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This both suggests the Op being on the slower end of proceedings next week with the favourable EC ensemble outcome more geared towards something a tad quicker and cooler. The rainfall suite also shows the Op to be one of the drier options;

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So perhaps something a tad more changeable is to be expected next week?

The CFS v2 anomaly for PPN shows the dry week we are receiving this week;

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with something more wetter favoured in week 2, hence the green colours returning. The 15 day Birmingham ens show temperatures to peak at around the mid 20c's at the end of this week before falling back towards average or perhaps slightly below next week;

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The 32 day suite also maintaining the slightly below average temperature theme through the mid month period;

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Rainfall projections for Birmingham look to increase towards average values next week, and persisting along this line through the mid month period;

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A more unsettled theme clearly evident there, as it is for the GEFS for London;

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and for Cumbria;

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Temperatures for both London and Cumbria again cooling off after the warm weekend period;

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So IMO, all signs are still there for something more changeable to commence next week after what is going to be an increasingly warm and sunny weekend this weekend, with just the small chance of some thunderstorm activity down south. The latest 84 hour FAX shows a front near NW France;

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which could indeed provide the possible thunderstorm activity if indeed it comes up towards the UK. The 96 and 120 hour FAX charts published tonight should be an interesting view.

To summarise, a slow breakdown is still looking likely after viewing all this mornings data collectively, with a return to more average temperatures and showery conditions after the upcoming warm weekend. Long term model and ensemble guidance does indicate the more changeable pattern to persist through mid month, but as ever with long range modelling, things do change, so take this lightly.

I do think that most (not all but most) of next weeks projected rainfall will fall in a more showery and convective nature rather than frontal so some pleasent days inbetween said showers are still possible.

The Ecm 00z ens mean also looks warm and humid with tropical maritime air over the uk, although it's not the hot continental air as the ecm 00z op, it still looks warm and muggy with thundery outbreaks and sunny spells, the idea the models had for the atlantic low to breeze through the uk has been dropped in favour of trough disruption or for the low to be anchored to the west with a warm/humid plume drifting across the uk.

Edited June 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[AWD]

The Ecm 00z ens mean also looks warm and humid with tropical maritime air over the uk, although it's not the hot continental air as the ecm 00z op, it still looks warm and muggy with thundery outbreaks and sunny spells, the idea the models had for the atlantic low to breeze through the uk has been dropped in favour of trough disruption or for the low to be anchored to the west with a warm/humid plume drifting across the uk.

The trough modelled in the Atlantic is unlikely to get into the UK as it is currently modelled like in the Atlantic. What it will do is eject energy east and what is currently looking plausible is for that energy to go south under the high pressure cell we have over and soon to be to the north of the UK. This COULD emphasise the wetter conditions towards the south of the UK, although uncertainty remains here.The EC mean is cooler than the Op as shown in the London ens above. The Op was at the warmer end of the suite in FI. However, just because the mean is cooler than the Op doesn't mean it's cold, it obviously isn't. With the trough pumping up winds from a more southern quarter then as you say, it will still be relatively warm, just at this stage, maybe not as warm as what the Op is suggesting. Tonight's Op, based on the 0z ens suite, may be a few degrees cooler. Note the word, may.Anyway, with a trend to more changeable conditions and the obvious increase in cloudcover this will bring, it will feel cooler than the upcoming weekend which is the main thing I was emphasising.The more energy that goes south of the UK and into Europe, the more Atlantic based air that goes with it hence the long term look by both the above ens I posted and the Met Office outlook of a return to near average temperatures.The Op at 192 hours;The Mean at 192 hours;The Op at 240 hours;The Mean at 240 hours;The Op clearly on the warmer side of the mean. Doesn't mean it's wrong as it isn't an outlier, just that the ens swing to something a few degrees cooler. Edited June 4, 2013 by AWD

[Frosty.]

The latest met office update goes with a gradual breakdown from the west next week with heavy showers becoming more likely, especially in southern, central and western areas, they also expect the atlantic depression to eventually sweep in and bring a change to cooler more zonal conditions with a hint of a northwest-southeast split since the south & east is expected to have the driest and warmest interludes between the persistent rain & brighter, showery spells, so, a sluggish rather humid and warmish first half to next week with sunshine and heavy showers and then turning cooler and windier with rain and showers seems to be on the agenda for next week after a warm and settled start, this update probably has more than a passing resemblance to the more progressive gfs 06z op run than anything else.

 

Looking longer term, it's a changeable further outlook, the unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures surrounding the uk are likely to continue to have a significant impact in keeping temperatures near or a little below average for the time of year, this is clearly going to make it even more difficult than usual for the uk to experience heatwave conditions this summer.

Edited June 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[rmc1987]

that chart though isnt too bad, warm but showery southerlies (showers more for the west), high anchored to our northeast...well im not convinced there much of a thunderstorm risk this weekend, the far south/cornwall perhaps being favoured, but as the charts stand atm theres virtually zilch chance imho.we have about another week (brilliant!) of mainly dry sunny warm weather (but not hot, its unlikely to produce widespread 25c+ , the higher uppers remain stubbornly over france), before the inevitable breakdown happens... now the big question will be, whats the nature of the breakdown? will it lead to another washout summer? will it return us to 'normal' june weather (mixed), will it be a temporary feature before more warm sunny settled returns...?... its too far off to be certain, but anything is possible at this stage.btw... isnt it ironic that after a very cold spring, the first settled spell of the summer is also 'cold'? or should i say cooler then what a sunny high pressure regime in early june would normally be expected to produce?

Yeah, for me it just shows how cool things have been and look like continuing in general. Seems hard these says to squeeze 27c never mind warmer. Yes this isn't a 30c country but things are very different now!

[Frosty.]

This recent satellite image shows the low cloud lurking out in the north sea which will push inland tonight to make it a dull and misty start tomorrow across eastern counties of the uk that border the north sea, however, this misty low cloud should burn right back to the coastal strip or well offshore during the course of tomorrow, most of the uk are enjoying a sunny and warm day, a bit more cloud across the southeastern corner and the far northeast, that cloud in the far northeast is mostly thin and high. The warm and generally settled spell will persist for the rest of this week although temperatures tomorrow will be down a little on today but it should become progressively warmer from thursday onwards and throughout the weekend into the beginning of next week, temperatures reaching the mid to high 70's towards the end of this week (weekend), high pressure is then expected to lose control next week with heavy showers becoming more widespread but remaining warm and humid for a while.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Within the last half hour here its gone from blue skies to cloudy skies meh !! Oops wrong thread lol

Edited June 4, 2013 by Skeggy summer

[Summer Sun]

This recent satellite image shows the low cloud lurking out in the north sea which will push inland tonight to make it a dull and misty start tomorrow across eastern counties of the uk that border the north sea, however, this misty low cloud should burn right back to the coastal strip or well offshore during the course of tomorrow, most of the uk are enjoying a sunny and warm day, a bit more cloud across the southeastern corner and the far northeast, that cloud in the far northeast is mostly thin and high. The warm and generally settled spell will persist for the rest of this week although temperatures tomorrow will be down a little on today but it should become progressively warmer from thursday onwards and throughout the weekend into the beginning of next week, temperatures reaching the mid to high 70's towards the end of this week (weekend), high pressure is then expected to lose control next week with heavy showers becoming more widespread but remaining warm and humid for a while.

 

Yes its going to start cloudy for many in the east tomorrow however this cloud will start to thin and burn away during late morning and through the afternoon once it does clear temperatures will respond and given the strength of the sun now it could well be a case of 2 seasons in one day cloudy and cool in the morning followed by warm and sunny in the afternoon

 

One thing tomorrows cloud is just a minor blip with things turning much warmer later this week before we can even think of a breakdown

Edited June 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Barry12]

GFS 120;

 

 

 

GFS 144

 

Edited June 4, 2013 by Barry95

[Summer Sun]

The further north you are on Monday the drier it should be looking at UKMO 12z

 

 

GFS for the same time

 

 

A move towards a significant breakdown from the west still remains 8 days away this afternoon anything could happen to this low yet not guaranteed to come our way

 

Edited June 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The good news from the Gfs 12z op run is the fine and rather warm weather continues until early next week, max temps into the low 70's and plenty of sunshine with barely any shower activity, by next tuesday there appears to be an increasing risk of showers breaking out as pressure begins to fall from the west.

[Frosty.]

The further north you are on Monday the drier it should be looking at UKMO 12z

 

 

GFS for the same time

 

 

A move towards a significant breakdown from the west still remains 8 days away this afternoon anything could happen to this low yet not guaranteed to come our way

 

one of those ukmo charts is 0z Gavin

[Summer Sun]

one of those ukmo charts is 0z Gavin

 

Sorry sat outside in the sun thought it had updated its correct now

[Summer Sun]

The breakdown doesn't look anything major tonight with pressure staying above 1000mb for the bulk of us

 

 

Later we see pressure rising from the south once more

 

[Frosty.]

Yes, any breakdown in the current fine spell is still over a week away so lots more warm and sunny weather to enjoy, I also think it will become warmer than the gfs is currently showing as I feel there will be more of a continental influence than the gfs is showing, i'm thinking mid 70's F max rather than 21-22c, the ukmo 12z also shows fine weather persisting into next week but doesn't look quite as warm as the 00z.

[049balt]

West is still best.

 

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Frosty.]

The latest recent satellite image shows the misty low cloud from the north sea just making inroads across eastern coastal counties after a glorious day for many, this will mean a misty start tomorrow, especially across eastern scotland, northeast england, lincolnshire and east anglia but this is still likely to burn back to the east coast or out to sea by tomorrow afternoon with another warm and sunny day for the rest of the uk, temperatures will be a notch down on today though, it should warm up towards the mid 70's in the days that follow but less warm for scotland.

Edited June 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[Geordiesnow]

The breakdown doesn't look anything major tonight with pressure staying above 1000mb for the bulk of us

 

 

 

 

 

Forgetting that the chart is at 216 hours, if that is not a breakdown and unsettled chart I don't know what is.

 

Greenland high looks likely to form and it seems any high pressure will be to the North of us so I think a cooler and more unsettled outlook going into Next week is certainly on. I suppose all good things must come to an end but if it does, it be interesting how long it will act. 

[johnholmes]

The breakdown doesn't look anything major tonight with pressure staying above 1000mb for the bulk of us

 

 

Later we see pressure rising from the south once more

 

I do love your optimism Gavin. You have of course IF the charts you show turn out correct not commented on the rainfall ones for the days over that period?

[phil nw.]

UKMO at T72hrs shows how the sunny UK will continue to experience a charmed life with lot's of rain and unsettled weather just over the channel and across much of mainland Europe where already they have had widespread flooding problems over the last few days.

 

 

The ridging Azores high hanging on grimly across the UK sandwiched between a developing Atlantic trough and the Biscay low.

We may just squeeze another warm and sunny weekend from this pattern but the cloud and rain or showers just to our south will be very close to southern coasts by then.

GFS op. at T120hrs shows where we might be by Sunday.

 

The GFS mean shows the rain encroaching further north by this time so some uncertainty for the start of next week

 

Looking at both UK and GFS at T144hrs though pressure is falling across the UK with the ridge collapsing as that Atlantic trough moves in so it does still look likely that a less settled and showery spell is on the cards for next week based on these runs-more a matter of timing when this arrives.

[Frosty.]

I do love your optimism Gavin. You have of course IF the charts you show turn out correct not commented on the rainfall ones for the days over that period?

it's in FI thank goodness, lots can change, another week or so at least of fine and warm weather for most areas.

Edited June 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

Forgetting that the chart is at 216 hours, if that is not a breakdown and unsettled chart I don't know what is.

 

Greenland high looks likely to form and it seems any high pressure will be to the North of us so I think a cooler and more unsettled outlook going into Next week is certainly on. I suppose all good things must come to an end but if it does, it be interesting how long it will act. 

I like how optimistic you always are.

[Summer Sun]

Forgetting that the chart is at 216 hours, if that is not a breakdown and unsettled chart I don't know what is.

 

Greenland high looks likely to form and it seems any high pressure will be to the North of us so I think a cooler and more unsettled outlook going into Next week is certainly on. I suppose all good things must come to an end but if it does, it be interesting how long it will act. 

 

Where there did I say no breakdown?

 

What I said what it doesn't look major IE deep lows like have been hinted at on some runs

[Frosty.]

Where there did I say no breakdown?

 

What I said what it doesn't look major IE deep lows like have been hinted at on some runs

Exactly, it's more of a shallow feature now and it might not even cross the uk.

[Summer Sun]

How much rain you see is going to depend on what part of the country you live in

 

London begins to see an increase from Sunday

 

 

For Manchester we don't see an increase in the spike until Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday

 

 

Then for Aberdeen you have to wait until around the 13th till we see an increase in the spikes

 

 

Dublin begins to see an increase around the 12th

 

 

It certainly looks like the further south the wetter it will be and the further north you are the drier it will be

Edited June 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

Where there did I say no breakdown?

 

What I said what it doesn't look major IE deep lows like have been hinted at on some runs

You have to remember that deep lows are not always rain makers, more like wind makers, Shallow lows can produce an awful lot of rain in generally light winds, often conducive to slow moving thunderstorms...