Model Output Discussion 12z 01/06/13

[Summer Sun]

Back to normal by next Friday with high pressure back in charge forcing lows north and west of the UK

 

 

T216 the high is back in charge fully

 

 

Looks like any attack from the west will be a blip

 

[Milhouse]

Bingo

 

[phil nw.]

Yes still a decent outlook for the next 4-5 days with plenty of warm sunshine and dry weather about.The fine spell certainly looks like continuing into next week now with the progress of the approaching Atlantic trough slowing against the High to the NE.

 

 

It does look like rain will move in to the west by midweek though with much fresher Atlantic air eventually following behind.

We then look like going into a more typical Summer westerly pattern with higher pressure and thickness levels over the continent and Atlantic lows just to our north west pushing fronts across from time to time.

 

GFS 12z mean 500hPa chart

 

How unsettled nationwide the changed pattern will be remains uncertain at this stage but with high pressure never far away southern and eastern areas of the UK would see the least rainfall and best of any fine spells as is usual in this pattern.

 

[Summer Sun]

The high stays firm at t240

 

Edited June 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

Clutching at straws is what I see from various posts, ecm and gfs totally different at this stage, why on earth is the ecm to be correct this time??

[pip22]

I hoping it will be a start of a 2003 style heatwave. just like a decade ago.

Edited June 6, 2013 by pip22

[SnowObsessor90]

Well I can't say I was expecting that from the ECM, the beginnings of a new trend perhaps?

Edited June 6, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[Milhouse]

No model is correct in what it shows beyond the start of next week. 'That ECM' certainly wasnt with what it showed last December. But its all about speculation over what could happen beyond the middle of next week. It would be a boring and predictable discussion if we only discussed what was guaranteed.

Mini plume from the JMA

 

[phil nw.]

The ECM Op is a much more Anticyclonic run than the GFS Op and also out of kilter with the 00z means from both and the GFS12z outputs.

For the sun lovers it would be nice if it's picked up an improving trend but let's see where it fits in with the ECM ens later.

[Frosty.]

A perfect end to the Ecm 12z op run tonight, fine and increasingly warm again following a very brief unsettled interlude with the PFJ again being forced north as the azores/atlantic anticyclone again builds in strongly, I have a feeling the azores high is going to be our friend this summer, last summer it was conspicuous by it's absence but i'm quietly confident it will be a very different story this time around.

[Milhouse]

Some very warm air starting to spill out of Europe.

 

[CongletonHeat]

Great ECM but it has gone off on one a few times lately for one run or so, if it is still showing the same in a couple of days I will be very happy.

[Frosty.]

Great ECM but it has gone off on one a few times lately for one run or so, if it is still showing the same in a couple of days I will be very happy.

It has some support from the extended gefs  mean for the azores/atlantic high to ridge in again and from the met office update so I would say we are heading for a decent first month of summer, hopefully with an even better July.

Edited June 6, 2013 by Frosty039

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Thursday June 6th 2013.All models show a continuation of set fair conditions over the UK as High pressure maintains it's hold over the UK fending off the majority of the weak frontal systems around the Southern and later Western periphery of the High for a good while yet. There will be shed loads of sunshine for many Western areas with very little cloud with the exception of tomorrow over the SW where a few showers are possible. Central and Eastern regions remain at risk of rather slow starts to each day as low cloud spills West in the ENE flow. It's not until the beginning of next week that slow changes look like developing.GFS tonight shows Low pressure edging slowly East across the UK through the week but it's progress is painfully slow and takes until it receives a shove from a thundery disturbance moving North soon after midweek before the thundery rain in the West becomes more extensive later in the week. Once passed a cooler and fresher spell develops with rain at times from troughs moving slowly East across the UK from the West. Late in FI the weather settles down again as a new High feeds in from the West with fine sunny and warm conditions returning late in the run.The GFS Ensembles show the same pattern as of late with any significant rain now not shown until after the 11th. After the next 4-5 days of comfortably warm and sunny weather for many uppers fall back to average levels thereon with no sign of any significant heatwave or cool spell.The Jet Stream shows the flow moving South over the coming days to settle in an undulating motion across the Atlantic and NE across the UK to Scandinavia next week.UKMO tonight shows Low pressure edging slowly into the UK through the early and middle portion of next week. A breezy Southerly flow develops which will feel warm in the bright conditions ahead of bands of thundery rain or showers slowly edging in from the West to reach Central districts by Wednesday.GEM tonight also shows deteriorating conditions but not until after midweek when a band of thundery rain crosses NE over the UK followed by a cooler and fresher Atlantic based synoptic pattern with Low pressure moving in close to the North by the end of the run with with rain or showers for all.NAVGEM maintains a slightly better pattern than the others later next week with less spread of rainfall across the UK away from the West. The South and East would eventually become dry and reasonably warm again as High pressure holds close by.ECM tonight shows a strengthening Southerly wind early next week especially in the Western half of the UK. In addition a trough will be moving slowly and steadily East across the UK reaching Central areas midweek with a spell of heavy and thundery rain in tow. This is then followed by clearer and fresher weather later in the week with sunny spells and mostly dry weather with no more than a few light showers in the NW though the rain may linger in the extreme East for a time. The end days of the run show a very warm setup developing (warmer than we have now) with High pressure building NE across much of the UK with fine and sunny, very warm conditions for all away from the far NW.In Summary it looks like the impact of the breakdown to more unsettled conditions is gradually becoming wittled away steadily. Although all models show a period of unsettled weather potential next week it looks increasingly unlikely it will be particularly noteworthy with the chance of a return to very warm and settled conditions shown by ECM as well as hinted at by other output tonight looking very possible after next week. ECM is a peach tonight with a stretch of high pressure at the end of it's run better than anything we've seen for a year or so and with the Jet stream way up in it's summer home to the NW this could produce a very lengthy dry and hot spell if verified.

[NeilN]

Pardon? Could you please explain your post??

 

The way June is turning out with these models, this is the first time since then I've seen it with a prologoned hot spell. 

[Bristawl Si]

for what it is worth, in my view quite a lot as all 3 are showing very similar ideas for at least 2-3 days when one looks closely at their output.

This morning from ECMWF-GFS link is below and below that my comments this morning.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Thur 6 june

Ec-gfs

All 3 are really pretty similar with suggestions of some kind of +/ridging ne of uk but really near enough to have much effect(gfs being the closest) and the main player being the trough/upper low/-ve heights largely w of uk giving a rather unsettled look to the 6-15 day period; again all 3 have a mainly wly atlantic flow with its source from even further north not south so average temperatures to somewhat below and unsettled seems the most likely again in the 6-15 day time scale.

Thing is John you first mentioned the 6-15 day period as becoming unsettled...well....erm....about 6 days ago.

[Summer Sun]

The way June is turning out with these models, this is the first time since then I've seen it with a prologoned hot spell. 

 

This is the best start to a summer in years if it can keep up for most of July it will be remembered as the best since 2006

[049balt]

In trying to come to some sort of conclusion as to what to expect weather wise for the Summer I think we need to look for trends, and it does appear from the models that the Azores High is doing it's best to be our friend this year.

[damianslaw]

The theme of much of 2013 continues i.e. a rather sluggish atlantic becoming unstuck every time it tries to influence scandinavia with the propensity for strong heights to continue to reside in situ to our NE, hence as we move into next week the models are suggesting a painfully slow moving trough which if anything is likely to become unstuck and retreat SE into central europe as heights to the NE exert there pressure.

 

So after what is turning into the best start to summer since 2006 in terms of dry warm settled weather, it is looking increasingly likely western parts in particular will see a likely wet period as we move towards middle of the month with eastern parts possibly staying dry before drier warm weather for all returns as heights build in from the NE and over the country - if you believe the ECM.

 

I had an inkling this June could be a good one, and most likely to be the best of the three summer months if you want dry settled warm weather, but strong heights to our NE doesn't necessarily equal a good summer overall as the atlantic trough is very likely to gain the upper hand as we move further into the summer as the atlantic traditionally livens into gear after its late winter-early summer slump, but unfortunately becoming unstuck once again over the country- the theme of the last 6 summers!

 

Enjoy the good weather we currently have, in my view the conditions at present are my ideal summer weather, no wind, no rain, lots of sunshine but not too warm with wonderful light - the perfect time of year for such weather especially such a lengthy cold grey period.

 

 

[Jimmy0127]

Seems odd to think that the CET is over 1 degree below average (of course it's early in the month) given six days of almost wall-to-wall sunshine!

Given the last six months' ECM/GFS model performance, I'm inclined to err on the side of tonight's ECM with this setup (though trying incredibly hard to be objective).

That said, at T114 a tweak could make a massive difference come 7 days:
 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2013 by Jimmy0127

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble doesn't look bad at all

 

[bluearmy]

ECM ensemble doesn't look bad at all

 

 

take care as the ecm ens will in most cases, trend towards the theme of the op. the 00z run may well be different. it does, however, show that the forecast for week 2 remains quite elusive.

[phil nw.]

A number of recent posts have been deleted -not adding to Model Discussion and rather unfriendly in one or two cases.

 

Let's keep the thread on topic and respectful to other members please people.

 

Thanks all.

[Alex]

I have some upbeat news tonight,

We have been in a very weak MJO stage recently and I don't see this changing alot in the next week or so, with a weak phase 3/4 favoured.

However the good news is that AAM is on the rise, a mid June rise often corresponds well with a rise in pressure across the mid latitudes. ECM tonight looks too progressive, but if this rise continues we could well see another bout of anticyclonic weather.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

Add me on twitter for more of my weather views - @alexbweather

Edited June 6, 2013 by Alex

[Jimmy0127]

I have some upbeat news tonight,

We have been in a very weak MJO stage recently and I don't see this changing alot in the next week or so, with a weak phase 3/4 favoured.

However the good news is that AAM is on the rise, a mid June rise often corresponds well with a rise in pressure across the mid latitudes. ECM tonight looks too progressive, but if this rise continues we could well see another bout of anticyclonic weather.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

Add me on twitter for more of my weather views - @alexbweather

 

From a respectful massive newbie, and forgive me or remove this if I'm ruining the thread, but in a nutshell what are AAM and MJO?