Thunderstorm Activity 7th June 2013

[Dean E]

All I can see is the occasional flash in the cloud tops I have not even got the camera out. I think the lightning is still on the coast of France.

Also picking up on the flashes from my bedroom window! They are very high up and very faint from my location.Lovely warm night out there at the moment, showing 14c right now.SM

[Adi F]

Yes SM and the flashes have become more frequent too and slightly closer

I won't look through your bedroom window lol

[paul m]

How i miss walking down past south parade and looking out seeing the storms miles away in the channel. 

[Adi F]

They are flashing around ever 20 seconds

[paul m]

According to IOW storm tracker the action is out over Cherbourg and thats 90 odd miles away

[Adi F]

I would agree with that Paul my strike alert is not pinging

I am calling it a night I think it's not going to leave France

[ZONE 51]

Sounds interesting ESS but when you say South uk which parts would you say could have a chance?

At the time of post I was thinking from IOW eastwards for imported thunderstorms and further west thundery showers early next week.., it needs to be there this weekend it's the plume of moist air knocking into the dry air we have now, a waiting game for sure but also frustrating. Would like to watch some night lightning flashing away up there CC(cloud to cloud)can be stunning this usually called ribbon lightning. Is streak  lightning cloud to cloud or does it hit the ground is it thinner version of forked??  would be amazing to watch some forked lightning too.

(Note the above part of my post was talking about this weekends possible thunder events and not what we have had last night and this morning)

 

Looked out the window(next to Heathrow ap)and there is wet ground, thought I heard a downpour a few hours ago! also last night I thought I heard thunder although could have been the planes, but one was very deep and it alerted me to that fact because there not usually as deep sounding here at that hour, so I thought maybe it was thunder! I hadn't read any weather related stuff last night so didn't know anything was coming! 

(did I miss something Thursday morning in the forecast when I made my previous post didn't read anything about this convection, although was mentioned a few days before)

Anyway out there right now some fantastic convection cloud well edged like anvil type and bubbles!

Edited June 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[the storm fisherman]

Hi all

just been woken up @ 5:15 am to heavy rain and thunder first storm here this year

[ZONE 51]

I am sat down the seafront in a T-shirt there is breeze picking up but it is lovely. I am at the bracklesham.

Bracklesham bay is beautiful, I would recommend that place, incredible sunsets. .. and of course watching storms move along the channel.. and wonder if there move in..  

Edited June 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[teeno]

What a treat thunder storm for breakfast, it's going to be a good day.

[ZONE 51]

Met Office surface pressure +120

(Tue 1300hrs)

 

Cold front moving east into west UK connected to a large scale low, followed by an interesting looking smaller low pressure system(not that the cold front isn't going to be interesting..)  , a head of this it a small feature over north France could develop, perhaps something for the SE, it may get shifted to the east to fast, if that lot gets in then could be some flooding.

 

This from next Tuesday

Edited June 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Look at this massive amount of strikes..

You can see the IOW storms there as reported above.

(all the lightning on the map is over-layed strikes for the last hour, orange most recent.

 

Here is rainfall same time:

 

The satellite from the Met Office can be found here: 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=SatelliteIR&zoom=5&locId=350928&lon=1.03&lat=49.28&fcTime=1370538000

 

The cloud on the satellite is expanding quite fast over the channel taking the images back a few hours and up to a recent image.

 

The IOW storm looks as though it's tracking northwest from there.

Edited June 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Stormyking]

Get in there!

 

First proper thunderstorm of the year and what a beast! One of the best storms ive seen for a long while, some of the lightning strikes was some of the best ive seen for a good while! The storm lasted for a good 2 hours, along with another one throw in it! Its still rumbling away in the distance as i speak now!

[Supacell]

The south coast areas west of the IOW look good for the next few hours. I wish I lived on the south coast 

 

Somerset, Devon and more especially Cornwall may get a storm later too.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Anyone on the south coast watching the storms at the moment; I'm going to check the webcams!

[Coast]

I wish I lived on the south coast 

 

Let me tell you, it's wonderful!!!!

Anyone on the south coast watching the storms at the moment; I'm going to check the webcams!

 

Just going to check it all out

[dave48]

Yes looks like some elevating storms have hit the coast during the night, possibly more to come during the morning, the met office forecasting some heavy showers across, dorest/wiltshire and parts of the west country.

 

Very active on Met Office ATD. I bet that was a great storm over the IOW last night.

[Coast]

Simple format GFS says nothing for us:

 

 

But that may already been superseded by the sounds of it. 

 

ESTOFEX show an area West of the Hants coastline:

 

 

 

Around noon, highly diffluent mid/upper level flow and placement beneath the left exit region of a 30 m/s 500 hPa jet core cause rapid and scattered CI over the rough topography of N-Spain. Storms grow upscale and eventually become detached from the mountains with strengthening cold pools. Numerous clusters of storms then shift N/NW-ward over the Bay of Biscay and also towards SW France/W-coast of France during the evening and overnight hours. Forcing by the approaching cut-off only increases during the night, so continued re-development of thunderstorms is expected in those areas probably all night long.

 

Either CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg over NW/W/SW France but weak shear or modest CAPE of 500 J/kg but 25 m/s DLS over N-C Spain support well organized pulsating storms (north) and multicells (south) with a large hail risk. Strong to severe downbursts are also possible mainly over W/NW France where enhanced delta theta-e is expected. Slow moving and repeatedly developing thunderstorm clusters may also increase the flash flood risk over SW France especailly during the evening and overnight hours, when PWs exceed 25 mm. 

 

 

 

Will some of that affect us?

[Coast]

GFS lightning wizard shows strong CAPE in Northern France:

 

 

 

But little for us:

 

 

Yet we know it has reached the IOW!

 

Convergence zone just licks the shores of the IOW:

 

 

with some local rain:

 

 

Lapse rates across The Channel:

 

 

CAPE increasing during the day, will it effect more areas of the South coast?

 

 

Very strong SBCAPE in France and Scotland

 

 

and low level lapse rates:

 

 

 

 

I'll go and check some NMM charts etc., but this will be interesting to watch unfold!

Edited June 7, 2013 by Coast

[Ben Sainsbury]

Kinda got that thundery feeling today

[Ben Sainsbury]

Will storms further develop as they hit land?

[Coast]

NMM charts more encouraging and reflect the current situation better. Looks like the activity already reported may build during the day and affect Cornwall, Dorset, Somerset, Wilts and Hants, maybe West Sussex. There are already reports of thunder to the West of London, so maybe even higher.

 

 

 

TTindex - yes a guide, not to be used on its own, but look at it non the less:

 

 

[Coast]

Looking at GFS for later in the afternoon, it catches up with the NMM:

 

 

Surface heating may be key for some home grown stuff:

 

 

 

[Evening thunder]

Wow didn't expect that to see that on the radar and lightning detectors this morning, only looked due to a light shower here.

Kind of heading towards home, but better not hit, didn't look that good a chance so am up here at uni! That would be so typical though.. even warm spells are being warmer at home atm than here near London while I'm at uni here lol!

[Coast]

Just opened up this specific thread for today's possibilities

Edited June 7, 2013 by Coast