Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[Supacell]

Should we issue a 'Light Shower Warning' SC? 

 

Ha ha, regarding Monday nights potential....

 

There is a risk that heavy showers and some intense thunderstorms over the near continent could make it 10 miles into the channel before dying out as they continue northwards, providing a real threat of drizzle to particularly areas south of the M4. Close to the south coast there is the risk that distant flashes could be observed just to "rub our noses" in the electrical activity happening well out into the channel. Another threat is the danger of NE'ly breezes bringing a cool feel, especially into eastern parts with attendant sea mist being a probability. Radar and detector observation should allow those away from the coast to marvel over the storms just a few miles away with the knowledge that torrential rain, hail, gusty winds and lightning are of no threat to anyone within the UK. The threat of drizzle, sea mist or cold NE'ly winds though do warrant a level 1 for the possibility the three could work in combination with each other. In this instance animals may start thinking about planning for hibernation or plants begin their shedding of summer leaves. Should conditions develop to a heavier drizzle or winds over 15mph then a level 2 may need to be raised for the danger of people STILL not packing away their scarves, hats and gloves.

[Keraunic]

Well, I'll be in Norwich to start off, then Lowestoft, then The Swich. Mebbe run into summat on me travels. (Not a brick wall)

[stainesbloke]

You could always fiddle with the light switches whilst listening to thunder via youtube? Nearest some of us get to a decent TS lol...really hope things fall into place, any storm drought is painful enough, middle to back end of June and on is into new territory for me! Still a lot of water to pass under the proverbial until Wednesday not least tomorrows potential for a few.

Haha, that made me chuckle The storm drought continues, could this week change it? I'm not very optimistic but will be keeping a close look at charts/radar. Last time I saw a proper summer storm here was in 2006!!

[Nick F]

Looks like high theta-w (wet bulb potential temp) plume will advect north from France across southern Britain Monday afternoon, with its origins from eastern Spain, Sern France and the western Med. Potential that the plume may destabilise through isentropic uplift of these warm moist layers as southerly jet increases and a thermal low nudges up over France - allowing elevated Ac cas showers and storms to form, initially across southern counties of England Monday PM and overnight into Tues. The risk perhaps nudging a little further north into S Wales, the Midlands and E Anglia on Tuesday.

 

The warm moist layers hang around until Thursday and with an upper trough/low moving NE from the Bay of Biscay/Iberia on Weds and its associated pool of steep lapse rates, further destabilisation is likely Weds across England and Wales and perhaps again across the SE on Thurs before cooler and fresher conditions sweep east by Friday.

 

Some uncertainties over how it will pan out exactly, but certainly best potential for a long while...

Edited June 16, 2013 by Nick F

[Evening thunder]

Later tomorrow and tomorrow night reminds me a bit of the event that clipped parts of the south coast earlier this month particularly around the IOW and Falmouth, only the 850hpa temps this time become slightly higher and perhaps slightly further north. Maybe someone could get lucky?

 

Edit: post from Nick F sounds pretty nice.

Edited June 16, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Lauren]

Well this storm potential is all good and well but unless it happens after work it shall go to waste for me

[Supacell]

Not to the extent of the 18z last night but tonights 18z at least brings back some decent CAPE, storms and temperatures once again approaching 30c on Wednesday.

[dave48]

Good article/photos on the storms across central France today.

 

http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2013/juin/orages-16-juin-2013-alerte-france-grele-pluie-vent-suivi-temps-reel.html

 

It also notes the MCS which has just formed in the Bay of Biscay and will track north east. WRF expects it to hit Kent/East Sussex at noon tomorrow. Whether it makes it that far or if there is anything more than a bit of rain left is another matter.

 

Edit: developed MCS stretching from Saint-Nazaire/Nantes down to northern Spain.

Edited June 16, 2013 by dave48

[Tamara]

The latest NAE confirms that it has a town very close to me in range...could it be closer

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Tamara Road

[dave48]

Estofex are cautious for tomorrow.

 

http://www.estofex.org/

[Convective]

Interesting to note that for the most part, lifted index figures are pretty high.. could this be a hindrance to the initiation of convection? I would recommend travelling to the south coast tomorrow late night however! A beefy convergence line appears to develop which could spark some pretty nasty storms through the channel.

[JK1]

potential for south area tomorrow? if so I hope my area get some have been waiting for a thunderstorm for ages, not gonna get my hopes up though in case It doesn't happen

Edited June 16, 2013 by JK1

[Nick F]

Not to the extent of the 18z last night but tonights 18z at least brings back some decent CAPE, storms and temperatures once again approaching 30c on Wednesday.

 

Expect the models won't handle too well this thundery set-up. particularly the precipitation aspects. They are notoriously bad at handling these set-ups, though the mesoscale models are getting better.

 

Seen those high temps on the 12z GFS, though not sure if we'll hit 30C on Weds given it maybe cloudy.

[Adi F]

Looking good for tomorrow evening

[Convective]

Now that's a thunderstorm...

 

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Convective

[Keraunic]

How is the Ipswich area looking. I cannot make head nor tail of the charts.

[ZONE 51]

Hi K, are take a look at the charts and read back on here but be a while before I post much on the the storms maybe not until the next updates.. I can nip over to weatheronline and take a quick look for Ipswich

Edited June 17, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Keraunic]

Hi K, are take a look at the charts and read back on here but be a while before I post much on the the storms maybe not until the next updates.. I can nip over to weatheronline and take a quick look for Ipswich

Hi ESS. Just had a look at Weather On Line but doesn't look as though any storms are forecast. Ah, well...things may change later. Thanks for your help hun.

[ZONE 51]

How is the Ipswich area looking. I cannot make head nor tail of the charts.

 

On Monday night you should be in an OK spot for at least viewing distant lightning, the unstable air and plume moving up across the south, I would expect some spectacular lightning displays for parts of the south especially southeast Monday night and early Tuesday, the middle cloud and high cloud showing with gaps in low cloud(shown on charts) across the south and over your area(Norwich&Ipswich) the low level cloud is clearer or not there so visible displays , this indicates to me that high based thunderstorms are possible. need to watch out for middle level cloud today!

Hi ESS. Just had a look at Weather On Line but doesn't look as though any storms are forecast. Ah, well...things may change later.

Thanks for your help hun.

They won't be.. yet. the situation is difficult for the models, this is my favorite set-up for night storms!

Edited June 17, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

If we take a look at this chart showing convective cloud cover look at the zone around Biscay/west France where we have storms right now(the chart is for midnight just gone)

 

then take a look at the 0045am satellite here from the Met Office

that round blob in the same place as shown on the above chart is thunderstorms.

now if I show you the convective cloud cover for this evening it shows that type of cloud across south UK

convective showers and thunderstorms it is likely indicating!

 

[Keraunic]

Thank you ESS. That's better. I can go to bed a bit happier now. You're a star.

Edited June 17, 2013 by Keraunophile

[weatherobsuk]

The pennines are notorious for blocking with these kinds of setups so learning from past experience i'm not getting my hopes up too much, however if skies are clear ahead of any MCS system it'll be a good opportunity to be on the lookout for sprites. For this alone i'm getting the camera charged for later.

[Panayiotis]

Yes that is one big sized cell there in France! WOW!

Hope it gives us a visit!

 

EDIT:For people viewing the thread now, check this animation, just amazing the convection that is going on down in France at this time!

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

Edited June 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[ZONE 51]

That MCS looks close to our shores.. but the high tops always hit first a long way ahead of the main storm!

[ZONE 51]

 

The thunder lizard moves up Tuesday eve...

look at the shape!