Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[PolarWarsaw]

This week looks a yawn fest away from say 75 miles in from the S and SE facing coasts. I expect no storms north of London or west of Cambridge. Muggy too, which is horrible. Meh.

[TropicThunder]

The sky is looking quite thundery, with milky cloud and the sun out now too it feels very muggy. I've got my eye on that blob coming out of NW France atm. I don't trust any of the models to forecast this accurately, just a matter of radar watching now.

[Stormyking]

Another interesting thing to note is that, our Dew Points are actually really quite high

 

Dew Points around the IOW

 

Newchurch/Sandown 15.0'C

Newport 13.2'c

Freshwater 14.6'c

Wroxall 14.6'c

Bleakdown Near Godshill 13.8'c

 

It really is beginning to feel really quite muggy out there! Fingers crossed People

[Stormyking]

Does that mean you are seeing lightning or something elsePs it is still cloudy here

Not yet we are night, AcCas clouds are normally a good indication of some thundery stuff could kick off later and that the mid to upper air is unstable. 

Normally an indication for possible Elevated Thunderstorms later on, but we will have to wait and see

[Buzzard]

We need one like that one coming into the NW French coast!

[weatherobsuk]

My older bro is un/fortunately on holiday in the Channel Isles this week, he has some good photographic equipment at his disposal and is no doubt already making plans to capture these storms moving on through as the plume ever-nears the southern UK.

 

I'm already trying to organise a chase-group for anyone in the north wanting a day or two off to chase these cells as they come onshore.

[Harry]

My older bro is un/fortunately on holiday in the Channel Isles this week, he has some good photographic equipment at his disposal and is no doubt already making plans to capture these storms moving on through as the plume ever-nears the southern UK.

 

I'm already trying to organise a chase-group for anyone in the north wanting a day or two off to chase these cells as they come onshore.

 

Chasing in the up and coming few days I think is going to be very challenging - this is going to be a lot more volatile in terms of where (IF) storms erupt. I wouldn't be surprised to leave for work tomorrow morning to leaden skies, spitting rain and thunder rolling round in different directions - similarly, I wouldnt be surprised if the skies are largely clear if a little hazy. You could pick a chase target anywhere from Dover to Land's End and your fortunes will be on the toss of a coin - anywhere along the south coast and perhaps as far inland as Midlands could be at risk of thunderstorms/heavy showers in the coming 48-72 hours, some could be long track imported storms whereas others may develop over the Channel/UK soil at any time of day/night.

 

Critically, storm development could be immensely difficult to spot using the naked eye as I would predict often hazy/murky skies being prevalent across S England, especially if any MCS developments are close by over the continent (by nearby anywhere up to 300 miles away lol).

 

If anyone does go chasing, I wish you the best of luck if anyone can't go chasing (like me) I hope the storms manage to find you!

[Bobby]

NMM has a heavy lump of precip moving into the SW this afternoon

 

 

I agree it's almost impossible to forecast where any storms will appear, probably down to radar watching I think.

Edited June 17, 2013 by Bobby

[Staffordshire]

How about we all chip in and buy aome sand/concrete and make a new island between dover and calais, then we can all migrate there in the summer and we would be garanteed storms seeing as they always go just short of kent?

[JK1]

Are these Accas clouds? (wanted to be sure so posted pics)

Edited June 17, 2013 by JK1

[Nick F]

Anyone seen the DP's for Wed afternoon - 21C through a large portion of Southern England ( according to the GFS). Juicy - It will go bang! 

 

CAPE and LI good as well.

 

GFS does have a habit of overdoing DPs though. It's predicting DPs of 20-21C across north central France early this afternoon - nothing approaching that on current obs - with 16-18C the tops.

 

However, DPs should be in the high teens and with temps rising towards the high 20s on Weds - some decent CAPE likely to build - GFS shows some surface wind convergence in the M4 corridor - so risk of some lively surface based storms developing.

 

Before then, risk of mainly elevated storms drifting north across southern areas, as the European high theta-w plume destabilises on the NW edge over Sern UK, some of which could be rather electrically active, which may put on a good light show after dark for some lucky people. Hard to pin down where in England and Wales will likely see the best chance of storms over next few days, a case of taking it as things develop realtime.

[Tom Jarvis]

That storm In France has bowed out

[Nick F]

Are these Accas clouds? (wanted to be sure so posted pics)

 

Looks like bog standad altocumulus, Altocumulus castelanus are mid-level cumulus that tend to have much more height/depth to them and often glaciate into anvils and create high-based storms.

[Coast]

Are these Accas clouds? (wanted to be sure so posted pics)

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altocumulus_castellanus_cloud

Edited June 17, 2013 by Coast

[Harry]

Are these Accas clouds? (wanted to be sure so posted pics)

That's verging on storm porn right there not AcCas but a decent sign the mid level moisture is moving in the right direction :DThat and the fact you actually have something in the sky resembling the Sun! Edited June 17, 2013 by Harry

[Evening thunder]

The BBC forecast at 1:30pm used the word 'thunderstorms' both at the beginning and end of the forecast to describe Wednesday also at last mentioned temps may reach the high 20's and showed 28C over the SE on one of those Europe air mass temp map things (With blue and yellow/orange shading)

 

Didn't make much of tonight though, just showers, but then the local forecast for the SW went for 'thundery downpours' with potentially up to 50mm falling in the hour in spots in Devon and Cornwall (didn't expect that). 

 

Edit: a patch of quite interesting undulating mid-level cloud to my west, looks quite thundery. Feeling pretty warm and humid here now, some bright with a few patches of blue sky, temp now 20.8C, dew point 14.9C

Edited June 17, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Coast]

This:

 

 

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/lightning-france.php

 

 

Here please:

 

[JK1]

thanks for replies I kinda get confuse with all these types of clouds

[Cheshire Freeze]

How far north are these elevated storms likely to get?

[Methuselah]

How far north are these elevated storms likely to get?

They'll fall just short of the Crewe Storm Shield...

[PolarWarsaw]

How far north are these elevated storms likely to get?

 

CS England at most I'd imagine. In a line from say Bristol to Reading South I reckon.

[weatherobsuk]

Beeb going for a more wider outbreak of storms into Weds along a line from Lincs down into the SW, as usual with high-based storms its a case of now-watching the sferics detectors alongside the RADAR and METAR reports.

[Cheshire Freeze]

CS England at most I'd imagine. In a line from say Bristol to Reading South I reckon.

 

pffffft I NEED a storm!

[Methuselah]

This:

 

image_b_fr.png

 

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/lightning-france.php

 

 

Here please:

 

Here.jpg

If that lot makes landfall somewhere a little north of Ippy, it'll make my day!  

[Nick F]

How far north are these elevated storms likely to get?

 

Models seem a bit uncertain between them over how far north thundery potential will extend this week, though perhaps northern England and north Wales.