Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[Coast]

I know CAPE isn't everything, but with just a trigger...

 

I'll have some of what the NMM current run is on please!

 

 

 

 

[VillagePlank]

Best wash my shorts ...

[Bobby]

Seems there's good agreement in the ensembles for a warm potentially thundery trough moving on Wednesday. Ensemble precip mean at +90

 

 

Uncertainty however as to how far E or W it goes. Somewhere in the middle looks the best bet at the moment so anyone could have some fun although still SE for the greatest risk I would say due to the higher temperatures.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

LI of -8 and cape values of >2500j/kg :O 

I'll celebrate with a stella as a thank you message to Belgium sending it over! (If they actually do!)

[VillagePlank]

If that could front moves out of France,

 

 

These fellas have it plum over the SE,

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Supacell]

I would love Wednesday to happen but it is pure speculation at this stage i suppose. Very hard to do this but I am going to try and refrain from getting excited until about this time Tuesday.

 

Any chance on Monday night of storms hitting the south coast? This is more within the reliable time-frame but NMM charts on Extra Lite only go as far as midnight - these indicate no chance of SB CAPE at least getting in, although at night and over a cold channel this would be a pointless parameter to look at anyway. Anyone have the MLCAPE charts for Monday night care to put them up for signs of elevated storms that may survive the channel?

Edited June 16, 2013 by Supacell

[dave48]

Interesting plume set up, particularly for the south east, east anglia and southern parts of the UK over the next few days.

 

UKMO now on board forecasting temps of 24/25 in central London on Wednesday.

 

Cross model agreement on the warm air making it to the UK, with good ensemble support. This could still change though.

 

Any thunderstorms would likely be high based, so insolation is not an issue there. However there is some possibility for surface based potential on Wendesday.

 

In my experience, these set ups can end up panning out quite differently to even short term forecasts, so there could be a few surprises for those not currently expecting them. 

[Bobby]

Any chance on Monday night of storms hitting the south coast? This is more within the reliable time-frame but NMM charts on Extra Lite only go as far as midnight - these indicate no chance of SB CAPE at least getting in, although at night and over a cold channel this would be a pointless parameter to look at anyway. Anyone have the MLCAPE charts for Monday night care to put them up for signs of elevated storms that may survive the channel?

 

Some decent MLCAPE flirts with the S. Coast Monday night.

 

 

 

 

 

Some storms in France moving N towards the SE in the early hours on Tuesday, but will they survive the channel.

 

 

Definitely some potential there

Edited June 16, 2013 by Bobby

[Sprites]

I know CAPE isn't everything, but with just a trigger...

I'll have some of what the NMM current run is on please!

SBCAPE 190613 12z.png http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php

more chance of winning the lottery twice...

[Chris K]

That's it keep the reverse psychology going boys.

 

06z again looks very interesting....will it? won't it? The pessimist in me is expecting a eastward shift by some degree by the time we get to mid-week, but that's based purely on past experiences and not scientific analysis

[NUT]

Up here in scotland we will probably be wondering what's all the fuss about. It's actually amazing that the potental has refused to go away (and been showing for at least a week) Looking forward to reading some of the reports possibly on wednesday. Could be very interesting!

[TropicThunder]

Trying not to get too excited as these things have a tendency to go wrong even at short notice, but would be great to see a good old fashioned plume event. The storms that came up from the channel last Friday whet the appetite and I want more! Looks good for some places getting lucky anyway. 

[Bobby]

06z keeps the plume scenario, look at all this CAPE on Wednesday afternoon, storms initiating in afternoon and evening

 

 

 

That's some heavy precip, big storm on Friday off the E coast

 

 

Plenty of potential for things to go bang I think.

[Tom Jarvis]

On those charts the northern people get the storms again not us storm deprived people in the Sussex area lol

[Supacell]

Some decent MLCAPE flirts with the S. Coast Monday night.

 

Some storms in France moving N towards the SE in the early hours on Tuesday, but will they survive the channel.

 

 

Definitely some potential there

 

Thanks for that Bobby. Does look as though the south coast may get something during late Monday/early Tuesday and if they are elevated then the cold channel shouldn't make too much of a difference. Potential then remains through Tuesday too on the 06z and (although still a long way off) Weds/Thurs looking great with 30c and big thunderstorms.

[nitro_deluxe]

Probably the best chance so far this season, heading into next week...will the19th bring the next June 28thesque storms?

Ingredients are certainly there - pretty tasty ones at that...case of watching this space!

[VillagePlank]

More t/storm porn - and this is for 6am!

 

 

Look at that CIN .... (pressure cooker?)

[Supacell]

More t/storm porn - and this is for 6am!

 

sound-London-72.png

 

Look at that CIN .... (pressure cooker?)

 

Yes, a nice lid on top of a very unstable atmosphere which, once temperatures get high enough, would result in explosive development. The famed "loaded gun" scenario.

 

A couple of shots of the weak storm I saw yesterday between Grantham and Bourne which produced one lightning bolt but some squally rain for about 10 minutes as it sped through. Apologies for the poor quality, these are video stills.

 

 

The next two are the same time but two stills as I panned left to right across the whole cell. 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Supacell

[paul m]

On those charts the northern people get the storms again not us storm deprived people in the Sussex area lol

Excuse me... I'm storm starved like the rest of you and clutching at straws

[Ben Sainsbury]

If this setup did occur how severe would the thunderstorms be? Anywhere near US status?

[nitro_deluxe]

Pretty frequent cc cg lightning, shot gun loud thunder and pretty big localised hail..I.e., nothing I've yet seen in the UK this season

Or they could be high based giving a good light show, minus the torrents..

[Convective]

This is when my location REALLY starts to anger me..! No where near anything storm wise AND surrounded by freezing bloody sea!

[nitro_deluxe]

This is when my location REALLY starts to anger me..! No where near anything storm wise AND surrounded by freezing bloody sea!

You get your turn in the Autumn and Winter months..

[Supacell]

If this setup did occur how severe would the thunderstorms be? Anywhere near US status?

 

28th June 2012

[Bobby]

06z NMM has thunderstorms/thundery rain moving into the S on Tuesday around noon.

 

Edited June 16, 2013 by Bobby