Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[Harry]

Good luck all under the risk zones today!! To coin the rather irritating expression - "I'm well jel"

[Ben Sainsbury]

Storms developing dramatically now in the SW.

[Supacell]

Looks like showers are developing along two W to E bands - one to the south around the Bristol channel and surrounding areas spreading east and one from Mid Wales through Birmingham. It is the latter one that I am going to aim to get under as I feel these could be focal points for thunderstorm initiation in the next couple of hours. 

 

Temperatures really struggling which is a worry but looks to be some slightly higher temperatures around Cambridgeshire. Maybe this could the area to watch.

Edited June 15, 2013 by Supacell

[PolarWarsaw]

West and South Wales looking good at the moment, couple of quite beefy cells going up. On collision course with here as well.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Watching two cells, one to my west and one to my south!

[Cloudwatcher]

Hmmm looks like everything is going to zip right by....again! Nice looking formation of the Welsh coast heading in but it will skate well south of us. Back to bed I think! 

[AWD]

A nice, heafty downpour passing through here. Nothing thundery but large, heavy drops of rain.

[Ben Sainsbury]

A nice, heafty downpour passing through here. Nothing thundery but large, heavy drops of rain.

Only a little light drizzle here currently!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some pretty hefty showes and TCu/Cb towers around here in North Yorkshire, no thunder yet though.

[Chris.R]

A very heavy rain and hail shower just then, was surprised there weren't any sferics in it.

[Jax]

A very heavy rain and hail shower just then, was surprised there weren't any sferics in it.

had a few "potent" showers blow through here too, only wet and windy so far though.

[Ben Sainsbury]

squall line developing near exeter; bottom right of picture?

 

[Supacell]

Very little happening here (SE of Grantham) but can hear regular sferics on AM radio, although nothing showing on radar.

 

Looks like a cell developing around Lincoln and some cells organising in a line near Birmingham and this heading towards where I am currently. No sferics yet though on radar.

 

Edit: Recent sferic in mid/western Wales but surely I am not picking up sferics from that distance?

Edited June 15, 2013 by Supacell

[Staffordshire]

This shower seems to be alot more intense than what the radar was actually showing, no t&l just heavy rain and blustery winds, this will go on to be a beast once it hits the east midlands... you watch

Edited June 15, 2013 by Staffordshire

[NUT]

Looking quite dark over headingley/edgbaston whatever it's called (same area I think)

Edited June 15, 2013 by NUT

[Staffordshire]

Stay where i am guys or move a bit SE to tamworth, do you reckon i will be slightly better placed there?

[Supacell]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #020
ISSUED: 1100UTC SATURDAY 15TH JUNE 2013

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS - WALES, ENGLAND
LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - EASTERN ENGLAND
BRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - CENTRAL AND EASTERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1100UTC UNTIL 2100UTC SATURDAY 15TH JUNE 2013

SHALLOW LOW INSPIRING A STRONG WINDFIELD IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH A TRANSIENT VORTICITY FEATURE ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND WIND VEER

DISCUSSION:
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ENGLAND OWING TO HIGHER SURFACE TEMPS AND INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL WIND PROFILE IS SUFFICIENT FOR ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TO ENHANCE GUSTS PERHAPS TO DAMAGING LEVELS, WHILE THE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS BETTER FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. ACROSS THESE AREAS, THE TRANSIT OF A SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SCOPE FOR A SUPERCELLULAR MODE TO ADVECTED THUNDERSTORMS OR FOR ORGANISED CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLLOW FOR POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL OF ABOVE 20MM. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

www.skywarn.org.uk/‎

[Ben Sainsbury]

Thunderstorm developing north of Bristol.

[PolarWarsaw]

Looks like ground hog day at Edgebaston, the distance has gone missing. Shower blasted through here, heavyish rain but nothing to drastic. Sun out again.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Storms going mad!

[Supacell]

Storms going mad!

 

Can you hear the thunder, only NW extra not picking anything up. Although it may explain all the sferics i am hearing?

[Ben Sainsbury]

Can you hear the thunder, only NW extra not picking anything up. Although it may explain all the sferics i am hearing?

Not too sure, may have heard 1 rumble, but has just stop tipping it down.

[Methuselah]

Things have gone very quiet here...

[Sprites]

Storms going mad!

over Holland , that cold front erupted over the North sea.

[Sprites]

There has been a strike over the welsh coast recently, still 2-5pm it may get going.