Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards

[Harry]

Just wondering if I should get excited about tonight's Potential

 

I wouldn't mate - just keep an eye on the radar in case anything pops up. There is definitely potential there but ifs, whens and wheres are all up in the air in the moment (no punne intended!). There's as much chance of nothing occurring as there is a mega firework display.

 

I'm tempted to set a 3am alarm and have a quick flick at the radar - if there's no developments then will drop back off to sleep. 

[Karl83]

Ian agrees mate, some possibilities for our area tonight;

"W COUNTRY Potential for heavy thundery downpours to spread N from NW France later tonight into Tues AM. Warm & muggy tomorrow: 20-22C."

Think it's going to be a late one tonight!

Defo going to be a late one tonight then!

[Harry]

Is it me or have the latest Cape and Li charts been higher than earlier?

wheteher.png

Rmgfs516.gif

 

There's a 'Prev run' and 'current' button which allows you to compare the last run (on this occasion the 06z with the 12z)

[gottolovethisweather]

If the potential for midweek comes to fruition I may well be interested in a chase depending on the prospects. My starting point would obviously be my home location ( Nw London ), but I'm prepared to drive approx 100 miles in any direction.

 

You could end up in Belgium then via the North Sea. Come to think about, probably your best bet.

 

Radar is pepping up out to points due South and West as I speak.   Looking a particularly good cell off to the NE of Brest.

Edited June 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

I'm tempted to set a 3am alarm and have a quick flick at the radar - if there's no developments then will drop back off to sleep. 

 

I'd see what happens around 11.00 pm too Harry, there is potential before midnight in places.

[Coast]

  Looking a particularly good cell off to the NE of Brest.

 

Just to save everyone the embarrassment of a wrong Google search result, here is the Brest webcam page.....

 

http://www.port-aberwrach.com/index.php?LiveCam

[Harry]

I'd see what happens around 11.00 pm too Harry, there is potential before midnight in places.

 

Indeed - sorry I should have perhaps clarified I head off to bed normally at around 11pm so will be scanning the skies/radars until then and no doubt bombarding you all with pics of any interesting clouds which pop up

[johnholmes]

Just to save everyone the embarrassment of a wrong Google search result, here is the Brest webcam page.....

 

http://www.port-aberwrach.com/index.php?LiveCam

ah so it has not got an a in it?

[gottolovethisweather]

ah so it has not got an a in it?

 

Come on John, please keep abreast of things, you really should know better.  

 

Attempting to broadly stay on topic, some nice milky skies here in Newbury with many cloud types visible I guess. 20.6c AT, 13.7c DP and a slowly falling Barometer reading of 1012.4mb, niiiiice

Edited June 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[djpaulbailey]

Just to save everyone the embarrassment of a wrong Google search result, here is the Brest webcam page.....

 

http://www.port-aberwrach.com/index.php?LiveCam

 

I did end up on the wrong page, although the result was still extremely impressive! 

[paul m]

I think the channel is too cold to support the life of thunderstorms crossing into Britain and the NMM shows this nicely. I think what we will see is home grown activity. 

Those storms that hit the south a few weeks ago Came in from the continent and the Channel didn't kill them off so there is hope. 

[Convective]

yes Convective, I know, I feel for you I really do, I mean winters aren't as exciting for convective action anymore it seems, I remember thunder and large 2 CM hail here on christmas day 2004, now that was something, and I remember a thunderstorm with thunder-snow and hail sweeping down the Mersey on 22 Dec 2009, and those poler lows that used to come down the irish sea when I was little. those where good times. lets hope we get atleast a heavy shower from this upcoming spell.

 

Oh yes! Now you're talking. I remember sometime in November 2009, just before the end of the school day, getting the best hail storm I can ever remember. Hail up to 1.5" and actual slabs of ice falling from the sky, some more than 2.5" long! Anvil crawler lightning every 2 or 3 seconds right across the sky! It was a beauty although only lasted 20 minutes or so. Left some damage though! Landslides, severe flash floods and a good buildup of hail in places! I remember getting a lift home that day and passing through a 3 foot puddle. Now that's something impressive here!

[Supacell]

 Thanks to those that have offered advice to me regarding chasing tonight.

 

I am still undecided. BBC and Met Office now forecasting thundery downpours tonight and tomorrow morning for southern parts, these looking like spreading north into the Midlands tomorrow afternoon. Whether they will still be thundery by this point is a question though.

 

Wednesday does look very good for some spectacular storms across the south but with it being 2 days away I am aware that could change and I could miss tonight in favor of Wednesday just for Wednesday's storms to be over the Low Countries. I wonder if it is this complex when chasing in the States? 

[Coast]

I wonder if it is this complex when chasing in the States? 

 

I think there is a greater degree of certainty nearer the event, more live information, big roads, big comfortable SUV's and cheap fuel!!

[Nick F]

Have done a blog on the current/upcoming spell of thundery weather: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5241;sess=

[NO LONGER POSTING]

please tell me that PPN near the south coast is not a false radar return.. just showed in the last 2 radar returns... SAT24 shows a finger of cloud from france expanding??

[Convective]

please tell me that PPN near the south coast is not a false radar return.. just showed in the last 2 radar returns... SAT24 shows a finger of cloud from france expanding??

 

Looks like something could set it off soon! Certainly connected to the larger systems over Northern France!

[Panayiotis]

First cell has reached the south coast and following its development it has indeed intensified over the last 15mins:

Edited June 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mapantz]

The SW quadrant will be the place to be tonight, whether anything electrical develops is another question but thundery rain could cause one or two problems in and around Cornwall/Devon.

[Harry]

Have been cheeky and asked for a last minute afternoon off on Wednesday - even if there are no storms it will be a merciful relief not to be in the office!!

 

Knowing my luck there'll be fair weather haze over Medway Wednesday PM and a tornadic supercell over C London

[nanu]

Have been cheeky and asked for a last minute afternoon off on Wednesday - even if there are no storms it will be a merciful relief not to be in the office!!

 

Knowing my luck there'll be fair weather haze over Medway Wednesday PM and a tornadic supercell over C London

il let you know..

[TropicThunder]

The sky looking towards the SW...

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

The cell near Guernsey seems to be holding out for the moment!

[ardsar]

Here in Plymouth, Devon, the temperature has risen in the last hour. Now currently 21.2degrees and 68% humidity (dew point 15 degrees).

 

Its feeling really muggy now............

[Chris.R]

wow convective, i'd sure love to see something like that here, although the wind direction matters a great deal, it must be an NWerly, but too much N component and the showers will just move along the coast, which can still be alright, but too much W component and they'll head down the mersey and through the chesher gap, usually missing me. i once remember seing a 5 degree temp drop in 3 minutes for no apparent reason, untill I saw a it was the downdraft from a cell a few miles away that had caused it, although it haven't even rained here. Liverpool bay has a a strange climate, about which not many non local people don't seem to apreciate. lets hope we get some reverse chesher gap streamers this week, and if they are elervated they might get across the sea to you. :-). good luck.