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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

I'm pretty sure a few French weather forums are likewise buzzing tonight...

I'm pretty sure a few French pylons are buzzing too with all energy :D
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

The party certainly has begun with cells popping up over France, these will start becoming more organised as the night goes along converging into several MCS's moving in a NNE direction towards the UK. Hopefully as these start to move North, moisture can be ejected into our green Pasteur and some home grown storms can appear. 

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

Posted Image

 

Things getting going in France on the storm front, watch this expand! (white/yellow is latest lightning)

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Anyone else just seen the national BBC forecast? Perfection.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted (edited)

no missed it what did it show??

 

 

Overnight tonight the SE have 'imported showers which could give some flashes' and Thursday 'heavy, even maybe torrential downpours with thunder'

 

The PPN forecast actually shows a massive group of storms appear from nowhere around 3am in the East Channel.

Edited by Convective
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

no missed it what did it show??

Perfection Posted Image

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Which forecast? This one?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416743

Or is there a more recent one. That one sounded pretty good to me I have to say. There may yet be hope. :-) :-)

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Blimey, the last 15 mins have been explosive! 

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Latest BBC forecast anticipates a wave of storms sweeping north tomorrow night extending North through Thursday.

As ever, treat forecasts with caution as this is a very complex setup!!

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Also, as others have mentioned and I have learnt, these storms are very elevated so the channel shouldn't kill them off as fast as it normally does because the surface shouldn't have as much of an influence to them. 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Latest BBC forecast anticipates a wave of storms sweeping north tomorrow night extending North through Thursday.As ever, treat forecasts with caution as this is a very complex setup!!

 

You got a link to it Harry please? :-)

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Which forecast? This one?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416743

Or is there a more recent one. That one sounded pretty good to me I have to say. There may yet be hope. :-) :-)

 

Nope not that one! John Hammond did it. I can't find a link yet. Time will tell. 

 

Thursday looks good for further north as well! Whether the precipitation will still be electrified by the time it hits Merseyside I don't know.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Nope not that one! John Hammond did it. I can't find a link yet. Time will tell. 

 

Thursday looks good for further north as well! Whether the precipitation will still be electrified by the time it hits Merseyside I don't know.

 

OK, thanks, and yes, I really hope so, maybe the elevated nature of it will help, and it might help it to reach you as well as it shouldn't be affected too much by the cold Liverpool bay waters. Lets hope we get a nice surprise anyway. :-)

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biddie Enthusiast

biddie

Posted
  • Location: Stevenage Herts
  • Location: Stevenage Herts
Posted

What's moving up through France atm looks due course to head straight for south coast an looks like its intensifying

i have a feeling the cold sea will kill it going inland reckon it will make coast though.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

remember the channel may not affect elevated storms.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

GFS 18z shows the dew points rising across the SE quarter UK, warmer 850s and high humidity.

post-11361-0-23318600-1371592516_thumb.g

post-11361-0-55631900-1371592517_thumb.p

I have circled the area heading toward the SE

post-11361-0-56587000-1371592518_thumb.g

 

Expecting T-storms to import/develop early hours SE.

 

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snowrye Seasoned

snowrye

Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
Posted

I havent been this excited since the snow

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Difficult to forecast because of their nature but here is the best I can come up with before bed!

 

Posted Image

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted (edited)

look at how far that lightning has struck from the cell that is why lightning is so dangerous.

Edited by Tom Jarvis
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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

+CG

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snowrye Seasoned

snowrye

Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
Posted

Where can i view the rader

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Where can i view the rader

Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar - Netweather.tv

Weather Europe, Satellite Weather Europe, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Europe - Source: SAT24.com

Edited by Panayiotis
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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

just looking at the lightning detctor it says a blot has struck just south of cornwall anyone elses know why that has happend

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