Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Gone very dark here. Probably owing to that moderate, patchy stuff showing up just S of Stoke

[PolarWarsaw]

Looks to be a little something forming (trying to form) around the Shropshire/Staffordshire area

 

Very dull here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very dull here.

 

Same here really. Very dark and gloomy compared to earlier. No discernible cloud structure though.

[Chris K]

*sigh* What I feel like doing:

 

 

 

 

What I wish I'd be doing:

 

 

 

 

What will probably happen:

 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Chris K

[weatherobsuk]

Same here really. Very dark and gloomy compared to earlier. No discernible cloud structure though.

 

That type of weather where a Tcu could be exploding overhead or just simple convection being capped, you never truly know.

[Supacell]

Just watched the BBC forecast. If I had been watching that say 15 years ago and did not have the plethora of internet charts and forums I would be looking forward to a humid sunny day tomorrow and then thunderstorms during the early hours of Thursday. If I lived in the SE or East Anglia I would be leaving the curtains and windows open waiting for the first rumbles tonight.

 

Are all these charts sometimes a hindrance???

[ryan93]

Those cells seem to be rapidly growing In size just north of southern France could be a sign of things to come

http://sat24.com/en/fr shows it well on here I think.

Edited June 18, 2013 by ryan93

[liambailey09]

Just watched the BBC forecast. If I had been watching that say 15 years ago and did not have the plethora of internet charts and forums I would be looking forward to a humid sunny day tomorrow and then thunderstorms during the early hours of Thursday. If I lived in the SE or East Anglia I would be leaving the curtains and windows open waiting for the first rumbles tonight.

 

Are all these charts sometimes a hindrance???

Looking back at old recordings the weather presenters seemed to be a lot more confident about the prospects of thunderstorms reaching us, almost guaranteeing them. Now the terms "heavy showers with the odd rumble or flash of lightning" seem to be used more frequently. 

[A.J]

Ok, a interesting hi-res NMM12Z run for tomorrow night in southern counties.....all subject to change of course, but the run infers elevated thunderstorms moving up into southern counties from Kent in the east as far west as Devon, with particular emphasis on Dorset/Wilts/Hants/Sussex in the period 00z 20/6/13 - 06z 20/6/13.....Plenty of Mixed Layer CAPE & decent 4 layer lapse rates shows that good elevated convection is possible above the boundary layer. Decent theta-e values denoting a warm & moist airmass in place......again, as the last 24 hours or so have shown, an element of caution should be taken taking these charts as gospel, but never the less, some great potential in place IMHO

 

Edited June 18, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[AWD]

I'll bank that Thankyou very much!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like a line of higher cloud tops around the N Midlands

 

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

 

Rather narrow though and you have to zoom in a bit to see it properly

Edited June 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[PolarWarsaw]

Yes I wouldn't be surprised if we see a line of light drizzle and showers in the next hour or 2. Not much of interest though.

[stainesbloke]

Just watched the BBC forecast. If I had been watching that say 15 years ago and did not have the plethora of internet charts and forums I would be looking forward to a humid sunny day tomorrow and then thunderstorms during the early hours of Thursday. If I lived in the SE or East Anglia I would be leaving the curtains and windows open waiting for the first rumbles tonight.Are all these charts sometimes a hindrance???

Yes! In a word. I remember tuning into the country file forecasts on a Sunday in the 80s, they were the best long range forecast available back then to normal folk. Usually the weather came as predicted!

[A.J]

no echoes on radar, but rapid mid level convection here to the sw of Swindon, very dark to my east and south towards Calne, really looks like a cell is trying to fire

[DAVID SNOW]

As others have said latest Beeb forecast,"Rain moving north,with the odd rumble of thunder". (tonight).

 

Tomorrow night,early hours is when they think proper T Storms will move up from the south.

[PolarWarsaw]

Midlands today was rather positive about Late Wed/Thursday for us. Shefali noted a 'very unstable' system moving up from the South of the UK, a few showers breaking out tommorrow evening with the chance of some Thunder, but Thursday she stated as 'the main event' where it'd be a very wet day with the chance of some thunderstorms/thunder and lightning. Hope so.

[Cheshire Freeze]

no echoes on radar, but rapid mid level convection here to the sw of Swindon, very dark to my east and south towards Calne, really looks like a cell is trying to fire

 

Something trying to fire here too, surprisingly

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yep towers going up here..

[PolarWarsaw]

Something trying to fire here too, surprisingly

 

Seems to have cleared up a little here, a bit brighter now and the cloud levels seem to have retreated slightly.

[MP-R]

Meanwhile, beautiful evening here - perfect to sit out and enjoy the humidity keeping temperature pleasant for the garden, maybe not so much for some for sleeping.

 

SE looks good tonight and early tomorrow then the SW tomorrow night and Thursday.

[weatherobsuk]

Nocturnal cooling should erode away whatever capping there is today in the mid-layers and allow enough lifting to continue into the night, another 2 hours wether this holds true however with night min temps expected to be 17'c in places the air is more than sufficient to hold enough potential well into the early hours.

[stainesbloke]

Yep towers going up here..

Cool take a pic

[Panayiotis]

My take on tomorrow's potential (High,Moderate,Slight risk) using the available data that I have access to

[Captain Shortwave]

My take on tomorrow's potential (High,Moderate,Slight risk) using the available data that I have access to

All will be fine until the North Sea oil rigs turn on their thunderstorm magnets, just watch every storm travel up the north sea or pound Belgium yet again 

[nanu]

Here its lovely warm sunshine,birds singing, kids out playing and planes flying into heathrow (which reminds me bbc2 8pm)... its too nice for anything to happen.