Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Woof!!!! Latest MetO precip forecast will suit many I feel....

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1371556800&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=54.63

 

If this comes off will be happy for both me and many others in the SE quadrant.

 

Critically, if the attached link is fairly accurate it does not show initiation over France until around 10pm....so patience will be everything!!!!

Wow rush hour tomorrow looks nasty for here 

[VillagePlank]

Woof!!!! Latest MetO precip forecast will suit many I feel....

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1371556800&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=54.63

 

If this comes off will be happy for both me and many others in the SE quadrant.

 

Critically, if the attached link is fairly accurate it does not show initiation over France until around 10pm....so patience will be everything!!!!

 

The only problem with that is that the interesting bit is in the missing three hours between 1am and 4am!

[stainesbloke]

SE under a total blanket of cloud. Don't get too excited folks! The predicted highs of 26C are way short.

[PolarWarsaw]

Looks like a fantastic radar for the SE quadrant. You lucky gits.

[VillagePlank]

SE under a total blanket of cloud. Don't get too excited folks! The predicted highs of 26C are way short.

 

Insolation can't be the trigger if initiation doesn't start until after dark ....

[Harry]

Looks like a fantastic radar for the SE quadrant. You lucky gits.

 

*If it occurs....worth noting earlier MetO radar simulations showed nothing like what they are now.

[Jimmyh]

you have to say the radar for rush hour tomorrow is stunning

[Storm Track]

The Severe Thunderstorms Warnings are expected for all of the part in the country including South East England throughout the North Western Europe are likely to bringing a severe and violent tropical thunderstorms with intense downpours this afternoon and into tomorrow. Severe thunderstorms are potentially dangerous for all the part in the country including France or Germany. The Level 1 or level 2 will not be likely to be end up.

Watch out with the Severe Thunderstorms Warnings are expected for all of the part in the country including France and Germany but it will might be likely to be hit the South East England with the slightly or severe thunderstorms.

[Coast]

The Severe Thunderstorms Warnings are expected for all of the part in the country including South East England throughout the North Western Europe are likely to bringing a severe and violent tropical thunderstorms with intense downpours this afternoon and into tomorrow. Severe thunderstorms are potentially dangerous for all the part in the country including France or Germany. The Level 1 or level 2 will not be likely to be end up.Watch out with the Severe Thunderstorms Warnings are expected for all of the part in the country including France and Germany but it will might be likely to be hit the South East England with the slightly or severe thunderstorms.

 

Can you just link to who issued that please?

[Methuselah]

you have to say the radar for rush hour tomorrow is stunning

Psychic radar, a brand new innovation from the MetO... 

[Harry]

Can you just link to who issued that please?

 

My thoughts exactly - sounds very nice although severe might be a stretch IMO.

 

Feels as though the atmospheric juice has risen some more in the past 30 mins also - not too sure whether the good ol' taupunkt (dew points) reflect this but it does feel a bit more primed for some nice weather....trying to brighten up outside also.

Edited June 18, 2013 by Harry

[weatherobsuk]

We just had some sunshine for the past few hours here and the rise in temp aswell as humidity was significantly noticeable. Just spent the best part of 2 hours topping up the tan and now mid-level clouds have rolled back in again.

[Harry]

To be in NE Spain today....yum yum yum!!!

[Neilsouth]

Sun trying to come through, altocumulus breaking up towards the south west... should bode well for some afternoon heating

[Storm Track]

According to the accuweather.com

Can you just link to who issued that please?

[Storm Track]

Please read it with this issue is directly address http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/408109/Tropical-heatwave-to-hit-UK-this-week-Temperatures-will-reach-a-sweltering-90F

[Panayiotis]

According to the ASIINWP model from ZAMG, the image for 2:30 shows ECs (cluster of small cells) over S England and Wales, interesting...

[Nick F]

12z Trappes (France) radionsonde ascent showing quite alot of potential convective energy across the Paris Basin this afternoon, wouldn't be suprised to  see some big storms developing there - temps reaching 29C in Paris currently in sunny skies.

 

 

As for the UK, well, one can only hope the slow-moving cold front develops a wave from the south later and peps up activity in what is a big mess of patchy thundery rain spreading north across western France near the CF, the chart below for 6pm doesn't look to bad for the SE for later, which such a wave across Cherbourg Peninsula:

 

Edited June 18, 2013 by Nick F

[Methuselah]

12z Trappes (France) radionsonde ascent showing quite alot of potential convective energy across the Paris Basin this afternoon, wouldn't be suprised to  see some big storms developing there - temps reaching 29C in Paris currently in sunny skies.

 

Skewt_Trappes_180613_12z.gif

 

As for the UK, well, one can only hope the slow-moving cold front develops a wave from the south later and peps up activity in what is a big mess of patchy thundery rain spreading north across western France near the CF, the chart below for 6pm doesn't look to bad for the SE for later, which such a wave across Cherbourg Pennisula:

 

Lowlevel1800_large_0.gif

Ouch! 

[weatherobsuk]

Here's hoping whatever is showing up along the welsh border isn't anaprop, the temp hit 23'c just earlier on and with the extra latent moisture around now it could kick something off shortly.

[Coast]

KNMI/SatRep are late putting out their daily analysis of weather fronts and the potential movements, are they keeping their powder dry?

 

http://www.knmi.nl/satrep/latest.htm

[Nick F]

Ouch! 

Whoopsy!!

[Harry]

Please read it with this issue is directly address http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/408109/Tropical-heatwave-to-hit-UK-this-week-Temperatures-will-reach-a-sweltering-90F

 

Oh no no no, not the Express.

 

Firstly, I don't think I've seen a chart which gets us close to 32C!! The most generous I've seen is GFS which at one point had 29C possible, but that assumes little cloud and certainly no mess left over from overnight showers (or indeed from the fronts which have plagued us today). Even in unbroken sunshine, 30C might be scraped IMO, but a scraping at best.

 

As for violent tropical thunderstorms, I reserve judgement. The use of the word tropical at our latitude is amusing - even Florida climatically speaking is classified only as sub-tropical and they get regular heat, humidity, storms and hurricanes.

 

I wouldn't read into that article too much to be honest - it's a lot of hype IMO. 

 

(However, I beg to be proven wrong - violent tropical storms do sound fun!!!)

[SimonP]

I noticed the latest update to the MetO wordy forecast (updated 1508 BST): 

 

Headline:

Muggy and possibly thundery in the south overnight. Drier elsewhere.

This Evening and Tonight:

A warm and muggy night across southeast England with an increasing risk of thundery showers. Elsewhere, some clear spells but also some patchy mist and low cloud. The far north of Scotland also seeing some patchy rain at times.

[Panayiotis]

Oh no no no, not the Express.

 

Firstly, I don't think I've seen a chart which gets us close to 32C!! The most generous I've seen is GFS which at one point had 29C possible, but that assumes little cloud and certainly no mess left over from overnight showers (or indeed from the fronts which have plagued us today). Even in unbroken sunshine, 30C might be scraped IMO, but a scraping at best.

 

As for violent tropical thunderstorms, I reserve judgement. The use of the word tropical at our latitude is amusing - even Florida climatically speaking is classified only as sub-tropical and they get regular heat, humidity, storms and hurricanes.

 

I wouldn't read into that article too much to be honest - it's a lot of hype IMO. 

 

(However, I beg to be proven wrong - violent tropical storms do sound fun!!!)

Ha, I read the title and closed the tab, just nonsense!