Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Jimmy0127]

ECM ensemble mean moves in the same direction as the operational to me, i.e. Azores becoming more spherical and rigid and the rest whizzing over the top at us (a technical description).

 

 

 

[J10]

Until we an get more updates, would anyone like to hazard an educated prediction of odds against or for that dreadful ECM stuff verifying or not? How likely is all that to retreat further away in some direction ... any direction?

 

Just when things were starting, perhaps, to look between moderately and very settled for mosty of nest week across most models, this has to happen.

 

Need science based reassurance soon! NOT demanding a mega heatwave, I'm not that unrealisitic. Just for some reduction in washout likelihood.

Hoping so more than anything else, right now. Or for a better improvement for all.

 wrt to ECM chart happening, it is against the ensembles, however for this coming weekend, the current forecast theme of LP for all of us was also against the ensembles, but a few op runs went for this happening and it appears they were right.

 

So it is possible again that the Jet Stream pushes a little further south again. 

 

The Upper chart also does not stop this happening, but it is slightly more positive than than last weeks offings. Maybe a halfway house of LP skirting over the top of the HP over southern areas is perhaps a little bit more likely.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Jackone

[Barry12]

Bit off topic but if the Met Office are to be believed, wet cool summers will carry on for the next decade atleast, but with colder Winters.

 

The Met Office and ECM will obviously be correct.

 

typical:

 

Edited June 19, 2013 by Barry95

[Cloud 10]

Thankfully we have some time to play with as the ECM slide doesn't really start till post 168hrs. You can see the problem on the NH charts, the ECM holds that high south of Svalbard forcing low pressure to dive towards the UK.A caveat though is its at the drop into lower resolution when the GFS removes the problem high and we've seen it often lose the plot then so we best just keep our fingers crossed that the ECM pulls back tomorrow.After this years dismal spring and summer so far down here I really can understand how depressing recent summers have been for you guys in the UK because its been just awful down here.In terms of rainfall the worst weather I can remember here including winters,anyway I'd better stop moaning!

 

A rare appearance from your summer hibernation Nick!

 

 

The anomaly charts for the first half of June show the persistent troughing over Southern Europe

with associated below average temperatures.

 

Of note also is the temperature anomaly over the SE UK,no doubt helped by the North Sea

being colder than normal.

 

500mb..  air temp....

[Weather Boy]

At risk of being off topic, Peter Gibbs tonight didn't seem perturbed by the ECM, appearing to be quite bullish about the prospects of better weather next week. He wasn't even too downbeat about this weekend and I must say the chart he displayed for the weekend didn't look quite as vicious as some of the modelling we have seen, especially for the south. As someone who's camping in Dorset this weekend, I'm hoping it will be rain moving through to a cool sunshine and showers set up for Saturday which I could live with.

I don't think at this point we should get too hung up on the ECM. It's one run, apparently not supported by its ensembles (so someone says above) and it only goes pear shaped in 8 days. I'll be worried if it's still saying the same tomorrow and one of the other two major models start to climb aboard.

Let's see, all to play for.

[Weather Boy]

A rare appearance from your summer hibernation Nick!

 

 

The anomaly charts for the first half of June show the persistent troughing over Southern Europe

with associated below average temperatures.

 

Of note also is the temperature anomaly over the SE UK,no doubt helped by the North Sea

being colder than normal.

 

500mb..june500mb.gif  air temp....juneair temp.gif

Good spot there, but I'm struggling to think of a sustained set up that would see well below average temperatures in the far SE of the uk and near continent, but above average in Scotland and NI with about average in much of France and Central Europe. Anyone got any suggestions? Absent which that all sounds a bit unlikely but we shall see.

[bradymk]

Good spot there, but I'm struggling to think of a sustained set up that would see well below average temperatures in the far SE of the uk and near continent, but above average in Scotland and NI with about average in much of France and Central Europe. Anyone got any suggestions? Absent which that all sounds a bit unlikely but we shall see.

Its not a forecast, its the temperature anomaly for June so far (1st to 15th).

[nick sussex]

A rare appearance from your summer hibernation Nick!

 

 

The anomaly charts for the first half of June show the persistent troughing over Southern Europe

with associated below average temperatures.

 

Of note also is the temperature anomaly over the SE UK,no doubt helped by the North Sea

being colder than normal.

 

500mb..june500mb.gif  air temp....juneair temp.gif

Yes I decided to come out of my hibernation, normally I'm out more enjoying the generally nice summer weather down here so don't post as much but the rain has driven me indoors so you'll be subjected to my ramblings for a while longer!

Those anomalies you put sum up perfectly whats happened during June, having said that June so far here although very wet has at least managed a few interludes of hotter weather. May here was the worst month I can ever remember dismal even by recent UK summer standards.

We certainly don't want another limpet Euro trough setting up, they tend to hang around for a long time!

[Weather Boy]

Its not a forecast, its the temperature anomaly for June so far (1st to 15th).

Oh yes, silly me. In fact I feel silly enough to delete my own post if I can work out how to!So clearly it can happen!Cheers.

[Eskimo]

Anyone seen this? It gradually increases in intensity as Friday morning wears on. Thoughts?

Edited June 19, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Jimmy0127]

 wrt to ECM chart happening, it is against the ensembles, however for this coming weekend, the current forecast theme of LP for all of us was also against the ensembles, but a few op runs went for this happening and it appears they were right.

 

So it is possible again that the Jet Stream pushes a little further south again. 

 

The Upper chart also does not stop this happening, but it is slightly more positive than than last weeks offings. Maybe a halfway house of LP skirting over the top of the HP over southern areas is perhaps a little bit more likely.

 

Hi Jackone,

 

I retract my view that the ECM mean followed the trend of the operational run in light of your comment above (I'm new here), I don't understand why though. (Annoyingly can't now find ECM means from 0z run).

 

The only trend I noticed was the Azores high retreating relative to the previous run, and a big trough increasingly centred over the North Sea which is what the operational showed.

[Jimmy0127]

GFS has ruined my day. Goodnight.

 

[mushymanrob]

no real sign of a change of pattern. we seem stuck between two strong areas of high pressure, one over scandinavia and the azores high. so we get a bridging ridge, or a nose off the azh, followed by a trough breaking through, ridge, trough and so on. no monsoon, no heatwave (ok we had a breif blip, and thats as good as it gets whilst this pattern persists).

 

as has been mentioned, the mjo offers no lasting hope of a decent warm sunny spell. for july we need a strong phase 3 or 4, which is a long way off.

 

looking below average, pleasant in any sun, but just rather benign... at least its not looking like a repeat of 07, 08, 12.

[Frosty.]

The Azores/Atlantic Anticyclone continues to ridge northeastwards next week but is pushed back by 24-36 hours compared to the majority of the 00z output yesterday but the most important thing is that the weather does continue to slowly improve during the course of next week with drier, sunnier and pleasantly warmer weather slowly pushing in from the southwest but early next week looks cool and unsettled across the eastern half of the uk with our weekend trough to the northeast of the uk which eventually fills and pushes away with pressure rising.

[Frosty.]

It's a much better Ecm 00z compared to the 12z last night, high pressure holds across the southern half of the uk and the spoiler low remains much further north and only affects scotland, it remains fine further south and pleasantly warm, Glastonbury could be looking fine and warm for a change.

[Frosty.]

The differences in the Ecm 00z is highlighted here, last night's 12z and this morning's 00z at T+240 hours, there could be a prolonged spell of fine and pleasantly warm weather heading in for the second half of next week and beyond, at least for central and southern parts of the uk.

[Summer Sun]

Anyone seen this? It gradually increases in intensity as Friday morning wears on. Thoughts?

 

I'd say up-to 40mm of rain is possible in some spots tomorrow especially in the London and south east area

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z turns into a gem of a run with high pressure becoming dominant, it looks synoptically superior to the Ecm for just about all parts of the uk with an increasingly warm and settled spell with lots of sunshine, the unsettled and cooler weather is to the north of the uk for a change.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Downpour]

I'd say up-to 40mm of rain is possible in some spots tomorrow especially in the London and south east area

40mm? Gavin I think that's unlikely mate.

[stainesbloke]

The differences in the Ecm 00z is highlighted here, last night's 12z and this morning's 00z at T+240 hours, there could be a prolonged spell of fine and pleasantly warm weather heading in for the second half of next week and beyond, at least for central and southern parts of the uk.

Yes ECM change is quite big and looks better as you say for at least the South. GFS run is ok, nothing especially summery but no washout either. We really need that Azores high to move further NE/E as even on the better ECM run we are still vulnerable to low pressure moving across and down the Azores NE flank. Be nice to get a high centred to our E, giving warm SE winds across the UK...maybe in July?!

[Frosty.]

40mm? Gavin I think that's unlikely mate.

Depends how heavy the downpours are, since they are slow moving, 40 mm sounds realistic, there is going to be a lot of severe thunderstorms today and tonight with some drifting up from the continent, 40 mm might be a conservative estimate and flash flooding is a big risk in the next 12-24 hours IMO. The netweather radar will be compulsive viewing today/tonight.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

40mm? Gavin I think that's unlikely mate.

 

Don't be surprise some one some where in the London and south east area could easily see up-to 40mm tomorrow

[Frosty.]

Some big storms today across england & wales, torrential downpours and local flooding is highly likely, we have storms drifting north from france and some large homegrown storms once the sun breaks through as it will be very humid today, it looks a very stormy day and night and into tomorrow.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Downpour]

Some big storms today across england & wales, torrential downpours and local flooding is highly likely, we have storms drifting north from france and some large homegrown storms once the sun breaks through as it will be very humid today, it looks a very stormy day and night and into tomorrow.

Okay - let's see. Be nice to get a good stormy downpour. Certainly seems warmer and more summery today than progged, so who knows?

[joggs]

Sorry frosty but your sounding a tad OTT, very stormy day and night into tom?!?!?!?!?!.