Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[rory o gorman]

excellent GFS for here in southern Ireland heights rising as early as Sunday and continuing dry and warm throughout next week with 10C plus 850s arriving mid week.The dropping trough in the low res would have little effect perhaps a brief weak front before signs of AZ ridge building again .  .

[nitro_deluxe]

If anyone mentions storm potential, I'll erm yeah scream

Please ladies & gents

[Frosty.]

Well overall, the Gfs 12z is a good run with a lot of settled and rather warm weather, really it's only this weekend and then a rocky patch through the middle of the run but pretty much smooth sailing apart from that, the unsettled blip through the mid section of the run is probably being over egged as the gfs tends to blow up depressions to deeper values than in reality.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z looks good to me with a pretty fast improvement occuring early next week as the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridges northeastwards, I can see more upgrades to the fine spell in terms of longevity and warmth over the coming days, the met office have already tinkered with their 6-15 day update to reflect the slight improvement to the overall pattern next week, it was a dire outlook yesterday, today it's better, this could continue to improve.

[Frosty.]

There are some thunderstorms around now with torrential downpours, some storms also drifting north from france which should be affecting the southeast later this evening.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[AWD]

Some downpours yes Frosty, but I don't see any thunderstorms yet. No strikes recorded over the UK as of now;

And no reports of thundery activity in the convective thread from people under the PPN. Still a developing situation though so could change, but no reports of thunderstorms yet!

[Frosty.]

3 strikes

[Evening thunder]

3 strikes

 

None over the UK on that map though? the Met Office ATD detection system shows nothing either. Some fairly heavy downpours/showers granted just not technically thunderstorms

Edited June 20, 2013 by Stormmad26

[AWD]

3 strikes

I can't actually see anything on that map you've posted but it maybe because I am on my phone this evening.Netweather ATD showing no strikes on the UK mainland still. Be interesting to see how the situation develops though.

[Frosty.]

None over the UK on that map though? the Met Office ATD detection system shows nothing either. Some fairly heavy downpours/showers granted just not technically thunderstorms

ok, the first person to hear thunder, let us know..there is torrential rain around, especially over humberside, lincs, derbyshire and parts of the south, i'm sure there will be some rumbles associated with that lot, or from the thundery showers spreading north from france towards the southeast.

[Frosty.]

Jeez this uk storm chasing is not as much fun as in colorado.

[stainesbloke]

Jeez this uk storm chasing is not as much fun as in colorado.

An apocalyptic lack of storms here hehe

[Summer Sun]

12z ensembles continue to dry and eventually warmer trend tonight

 

 

ECM is now rolling out still some trough problems for the east the uppers aren't special (below average for the time of year) but given any sunshine it won't feel too bad

 

Edited June 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

The ukmo 12z looks good to me with a pretty fast improvement occuring early next week as the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridges northeastwards, I can see more upgrades to the fine spell in terms of longevity and warmth over the coming days, the met office have already tinkered with their 6-15 day update to reflect the slight improvement to the overall pattern next week, it was a dire outlook yesterday, today it's better, this could continue to improve.

 

yep that does give us hope, but ill not be happy (for heat) until that azores enemy leaves the azores. as long as the azh sits over there, big and strong, we wont get heat.

 

ok, the first person to hear thunder, let us know..there is torrential rain around, especially over humberside, lincs, derbyshire and parts of the south, i'm sure there will be some rumbles associated with that lot, or from the thundery showers spreading north from france towards the southeast.

 

very heavy rain here... no thunder... im not expecting a thunderstorm now, if we were going to get one (a storm, not thundery rain) it would have been with the first wave of showers pushing into the warm humid air.

[Summer Sun]

ECM follows GFS by bringing the low west Iceland down to the UK at day 9 but before that there is a window for some fine weather possibly cloudy in the east but even here we should see the sun breaking through making it feel warm when it does

 

 

Again any warm uppers which build get shifted out

 

 

T240 has the low taking hold with the uppers below the seasonal average

 

Edited June 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The good news is this Ecm 12z run is better than the 12z last night with more in the way of fine pleasant weather next week but it still ends up pretty much the same with low pressure sliding down into the uk from the northwest, but at least there is a larger window of fine weather for the bulk of next week, especially in western and central areas, perhaps more cloud further east but with sunny spells.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[J10]

3 strikes

and you are out

 

 

Sorry couldn't resist.

 

Latest Glastonbury Blog update - an it is an improvement all around

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4632-glastonbury-forecast-14-20th-june/

 

Rainfall predictions are now very low with the possible exception of next weekend (29/30 June).

Edited June 20, 2013 by Jackone

[Frosty.]

and you are out

 

 

Sorry couldn't resist.

 

Latest Glastonbury Blog update - an it is an improvement all around

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4632-glastonbury-forecast-14-20th-june/

 

Rainfall predictions are now very low with the possible exception of next weekend (29/30 June).

LOL yes I deserved that. this uk storm chasing is very hard work.

 

Models still look good for a fine and pleasantly warm settled spell next week after an unsettled and cool start.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[William of Walworth]

Thnks for all the updates, links and analysisi everyone. AWD and Frosty and Gibby and everyone else.

 

But please, Atlantic- and other oceans-domiciled weather 'gods'.

 

Just kill those worryingly green areas please, future models ... at least for anywhere S of ..... Glasgow? Manchester?

 

After around 45 minutes of checking and catching up, I was feeling nothing but warm and sunny based prospects for the whole of next week (meaning for the SW), until the last 4 or 5 posts ....

 

Keep us Glastonbury goers on our toes til the very last moments though, I recommend. It's the traditional late June, mid Somerset based way.

 

( I won't be around much longer folks, so my shredded nerves you won't have to endure for much longer -- as most years. I'll be off to unconnected areas of the SW -- you know them! -- early tomorrow afternoon ....)

Edited June 20, 2013 by William of Walworth

[Jimmy0127]

Thnks for all the updates, links and analysisi everyone. AWD and Frosty and Gibby and everyone else.

 

But please, Atlantic- and other oceans-domiciled weather 'gods'.

 

Just kill those worryingly green areas please, future models ... at least for anywhere S of ..... Glasgow? Manchester?

 

After around 45 minutes of checking and catching up, I was feeling nothing but warm and sunny based prospects for the whole of next week (meaning for the SW), until the last 4 or 5 posts ....

 

Keep us Glastonbury goers on our toes til the very last moments though, I recommend. It's the traditional late June, mid Somerset based way.

 

( I won't be around much longer folks, so my shredded nerves you won't have to endure for much longer -- as most years. I'll be off to unconnected areas of the SW -- you know them! -- early tomorrow afternoon ....)

 

 

Come on William, the weather isn't going to affect your weekend!

 

 I'd bank on a good one anyway.

 

 

 

Give my love to Mick, Keith. And have a Brothers festival cider. 

 

 

[Hairy Celt]

I fully expect to be wielding my hose later...(assuming the Mrs is up for it!)

 

Gosh there's some public optimism for a good night in!

[Frosty.]

We are still on track for a fine and pleasantly warm spell as we go through next week according to the ukmo 00z, initially, west is best but then all areas become fine, the south of the uk has the potential to keep warming up with a strong ridge holding.

[Scorcher]

Yes Frost and interesting to see GFS now showing the track of that low after midweek to be just to the north of Scotland, meaning many areas further south could continue dry and fine. The first half of the ECM 00Z this morning that I've seen seemed to be showing something similar.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is also looking good for a spell of dry, pleasantly warm and sunny weather for most of next week as high pressure builds in from the southwest but later next week, low pressure approaching the northwest of scotland would turn the weather gradually more unsettled across northern britain but remaining fine and warm across the south with a strong ridge from the azores/atlantic anticyclone holding, however, by the end of next week it again shows low pressure sliding southeast as per the 12z last night except it's a little further north and east than it was modeled on the 12z and there is an atlantic ridge following in soon after, so this looks a better run than last night, it certainly ends better.

Edited June 21, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

00z GFS ensembles continue the substantially drier than average and eventually warmer theme of the past few days

 

 

Much better end to ECM this morning