Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Kentspur]

Couldn't have picked a better time to have my week away in Devon this week coming:-)) usually its us in South East that are driest and warmest

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4634-glastonbury-forecast-15-21st-june/

 

Latest news for Glasto, and a bit more detail on the potential trade off tonight, GFS a little bit more unsettled, as does some of the GEFS ensemble runs, ECM looking a little bit better.

 

 

 

 

Latest Upper Charts these still show high pressure for many on the 6-10 day run, and more concentrated on W and SW on the 8-14 day run. With this type of flow, always more settled towards South and West with a greater risk of occasional disturbances further north and east.

[Milhouse]

Looking very nice next week and its such a welcome sight to see strong ridging of the Azores High at this time of year. On a positive note it seems that the ECM and GFS have put a more westerly tilt to the wind direction for early on next week so it may encourage higher temperatures to arrive sooner. From midweek onwards the proper warmth arrives and some parts could hit 25c. But on a negative note, low pressure looks like it will bring unsettled conditions into Scotland later on in the week which may spread further south to all parts during next weekend like the ECM op suggests. On the other hand, the ECM mean keeps high pressure strong to the SW of the UK.

 

It seems quite likely now that June 2013 will go out on a fairly good note with a good spell of dry and settled weather, the best of this to be found across the south and east.

[mushymanrob]

Looking very nice next week and its such a welcome sight to see strong ridging of the Azores High at this time of year. On a positive note it seems that the ECM and GFS have put a more westerly tilt to the wind direction for early on next week so it may encourage higher temperatures to arrive sooner. From midweek onwards the proper warmth arrives and some parts could hit 25c. But on a negative note, low pressure looks like it will bring unsettled conditions into Scotland later on in the week which may spread further south to all parts during next weekend like the ECM op suggests. On the other hand, the ECM mean keeps high pressure strong to the SW of the UK.

 

It seems quite likely now that June 2013 will go out on a fairly good note with a good spell of dry and settled weather, the best of this to be found across the south and east.

 

tbh it would be better (for heat and sun) if the azores high shifted and became a euro high. 'nice' is all we can expect at best whilst that azores high (aka enemy) sits there feeding us atlantic air. ok its much better then last year... and pretty normal/average british summer and thats not to be sniffed at. but if we want heat, plumes, thunderstorms it wont come via this current pattern.

[Frosty.]

tbh it would be better (for heat and sun) if the azores high shifted and became a euro high. 'nice' is all we can expect at best whilst that azores high (aka enemy) sits there feeding us atlantic air. ok its much better then last year... and pretty normal/average british summer and thats not to be sniffed at. but if we want heat, plumes, thunderstorms it wont come via this current pattern.

Spot on mushy, we need high pressure to the east or southeast but for the time being we have to be satisfied with the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridging across the uk at times, and next week looks like bringing a nice warm spell, especially for the south.

Edited June 21, 2013 by Frosty039

[matt_in_dudley]

You would not believe how pleased i am to see those model runs! I'm off to Poole, Dorset for a week on Monday!

[049balt]

This is perfect Summer weather and we are only in June,  the Azores high is always on our doorstep and offers the prospect of some good Summer weather in the weeks ahead.

[Downpour]

tbh it would be better (for heat and sun) if the azores high shifted and became a euro high. 'nice' is all we can expect at best whilst that azores high (aka enemy) sits there feeding us atlantic air. ok its much better then last year... and pretty normal/average british summer and thats not to be sniffed at. but if we want heat, plumes, thunderstorms it wont come via this current pattern.

Not all of us want such things. Low twenties and soft westerly breezes = classic English summer. Heatwaves sound good, but they send people mad!

[rory o gorman]

ECM is a cracker for us here in southern ireland as we sit next to the strongest heights and an mesoscale fohn effect from mountains in the west will give a pretty summery week. Will also be the first good week past the summer solstice since 2006 here .

[Scorcher]

tbh it would be better (for heat and sun) if the azores high shifted and became a euro high. 'nice' is all we can expect at best whilst that azores high (aka enemy) sits there feeding us atlantic air. ok its much better then last year... and pretty normal/average british summer and thats not to be sniffed at. but if we want heat, plumes, thunderstorms it wont come via this current pattern.

 

Heatwaves would be nice but I will take this current pattern if it means sustainable, 'good' summer weather, and who knows, maybe the high could eventually drift east. We only narrowly missed some real heat in the week so maybe next time we will be directly in line.

[Jimmy0127]

18z GFS looks like an improvement on 12z so far - stronger high and weaker trough compared with last run. Still unhappy about ECM, but even that seems to be moving in a positive direction. (I'm focusing on next weekend!)

Edited June 21, 2013 by Jimmy0127

[Geordiesnow]

Outlook still looks reasonable for next week, but signs that things may break down as we head after mid-week with the traditional North-South split occuring it would seem. E.g lets not read the 138 hour chart on this run a good chart because its not as it will be wet and dull, especially in the West! Different orientation could lead to something different mind so I am not too concerned as before hand, we may have a couple of days of some generally fine weather, cloud amounts are a little hard to predict though at this stage. 

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z looks even better than yesterday for high pressure to last longer and bring a nationwide fine and warm spell, this run is much better for scotland and n.ireland for the fine spell to persist well beyond the middle of next week, the azores/atlantic anticyclone looks like being our friend next week.

[mushymanrob]

Spot on mushy, we need high pressure to the east or southeast but for the time being we have to be satisfied with the azores/atlantic anticyclone ridging across the uk at times, and next week looks like bringing a nice warm spell, especially for the south.

 

.... and this morning the runs suggest it just might happen, as the ukmo runs youve just posted hint at. im happy with the output atm, this time the ridge looks more substantial, and prolonged.

 

Not all of us want such things. Low twenties and soft westerly breezes = classic English summer. Heatwaves sound good, but they send people mad!

 

summers without a heatwave is like winter without a freeze... pretty useless!

 

so a decent/improving week is pretty much certain, and this mornings gfs and ukmo (ecm still on yesterdays 12z atm) suggest by the end of the week things could be really nice, sunny and warm.

 

could this be the change in pattern, away from an atlantic fed regime courtesy of the azh, to a more high pressure dominated one?... will this summer be a near re-run in the style of 1983?

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is also better despite developing more of a northwest-southeast alignment, other than that, high pressure builds in strongly and   the north of the uk also continues settled until next weekend, unlike yesterday's output, the ukmo 00z with it's southwest-northeast alignment is much better though. Next week looks like quickly becoming fine and increasingly warm with lots of sunshine and temperatures into the low 20's celsius which would then rise into the mid 20's during the second half of next week, wimbledon and glastonbury are looking fine, the major difference between the ukmo and ecm is the ukmo with it's superior alignment would continue fine and very warm through to the end of next weekend and beyond but the ecm  with a northwest-southeast alignment enables low pressure across iceland to slide southeastwards next weekend, luckily, the ecm breakdown is more of a glancing blow and pressure quickly rises again from the west.

Edited June 22, 2013 by Frosty039

[Downpour]

.... and this morning the runs suggest it just might happen, as the ukmo runs youve just posted hint at. im happy with the output atm, this time the ridge looks more substantial, and prolonged.summers without a heatwave is like winter without a freeze... pretty useless!so a decent/improving week is pretty much certain, and this mornings gfs and ukmo (ecm still on yesterdays 12z atm) suggest by the end of the week things could be really nice, sunny and warm.could this be the change in pattern, away from an atlantic fed regime courtesy of the azh, to a more high pressure dominated one?... will this summer be a near re-run in the style of 1983?

"Summer without a heatwave is like winter without a freeze"Okay, see your point. Fair play!

[nick sussex]

Nice to see the models flattening out the jet and edging that high ne away from Scandi. This is key to stopping that low digging too far south. You really don't want an amplified upstream pattern here unless you can get any troughing to dig south much further to the west.

The orientation of that high will not bring anything but a limpet trough over western Europe, for those heat lovers you need this tilting ne/sw not in the current case nw/se as that just adds forcing on low pressure to head into the UK.

So for the outlook it looks pretty nice especially further south then its really whether we can see the jet flatten out a bit further and edge further north, whilst this won't bring any real heat given recent summers at least you won't need a gondola to get around!

For heat lovers this is what you want to see, flat jet curving away to the ne, lowish pressure over Greenland and no high pressure to the ne south of Svalbard.

This is todays ECM at 168hrs, I'd call this the danger point, high pressure over northern Scandi acts as a block to the low which gets directed in towards the UK, that high does relent after this point and edge away a bit further but really we want rid of that completely. The upstream pattern is a bit flatter than in previous ECM runs which is better.

Certainly though at least a decent week to look forward to for most and great to see given Wimbledon starts on Monday.

Edited June 22, 2013 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

The ukmo 00z looks even better than yesterday for high pressure to last longer and bring a nationwide fine and warm spell, this run is much better for scotland and n.ireland for the fine spell to persist well beyond the middle of next week, the azores/atlantic anticyclone looks like being our friend next week.

 

UKMO is the pick this morning without doubt as it keeps that low around Iceland out the way a fine week for Wimbledon coming up and by the looks of it a dry start to the Glastonbury music festival

[stainesbloke]

UKMO and GFS both showing some potentially fine and warm spells next week, keeping low pressure to our N. ECM not so settled and shows a poorer weekend across much of the UK.

[rmc1987]

So it looks as though the HP will peak on Thursday but we could possibly see the warmest day a week Monday. That's of course going by the GFS and on the basis the high sticks around etc. That, however, is a relatively long way out yet.

Still an improving picture on this weekend, temperatures I wouldn't like to say. I remember once you could look at GFS and the actual ended being about 3c higher, that hasn't been the case lately.

Edited June 22, 2013 by rmc1987

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks rather better than the operational with more of a gentle decline later as the alignment of the azores/atlantic anticyclone is more west-east than northwest-southeast, the ens mean would eventually be best towards the southwest where pressure would be higher but overall, the mean keeps the fine and warm weather intact for longer and is less unsettled than the op in the later stages. Next week is looking very nice, becoming warmer and sunnier across most of the uk.

[J10]

As long as the ECM keeps the low pressure there it is OK, the problems is something similar was initially forecast for this weekend, but is edged further south, to be more of a general Low Pressure for much of the UK.

 

It would be better of course if the low pressure went further north but perhaps that it too much to ask for.

[J10]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks rather better than the operational with more of a gentle decline later as the alignment of the azores/atlantic anticyclone is more west-east than northwest-southeast, the ens mean would eventually be best towards the southwest where pressure would be higher but overall, the mean keeps the fine and warm weather intact for longer and is less unsettled than the op in the later stages. Next week is looking very nice, becoming warmer and sunnier across most of the uk.

 

I think this is why people in the South like the NW SE alignment, as it means a lot of dry and bright sunny weather, better for us than SW NE, High Pressure bang on top of would be better but beggars can't be choosers.

[stainesbloke]

As long as the ECM keeps the low pressure there it is OK, the problems is something similar was initially forecast for this weekend, but is edged further south, to be more of a general Low Pressure for much of the UK.It would be better of course if the low pressure went further north but perhaps that it too much to ask for.

Hehe, Sod's law states that if the ECM starts looking better then the GFS or UKMO will go belly up The ECM isn't terrible, it just leaves us more prone to an attack of low pressure from the NW. Wouldn't take much for it to become more favourable for settled weather, though. What is good to see is no troughing sat over the UK on any of the big 3 models.

[Downpour]

Hehe, Sod's law states that if the ECM starts looking better then the GFS or UKMO will go belly up The ECM isn't terrible, it just leaves us more prone to an attack of low pressure from the NW. Wouldn't take much for it to become more favourable for settled weather, though. What is good to see is no troughing sat over the UK on any of the big 3 models.

Good analysis Staines Bloke. Yes, a good overall picture I dare say which is sure to hearten those attending Glastonbury. While I am not attending it would be good to see for weather if only to embarrass the idiots in the media who think they can forecast the English weather at three-week range!

[Tamara]

The coming week does look like giving some pleasant weather and some warm sunshine without humidity and no threat of downpours. Its true that further south this especially applies but many places throughout the UK should get at least a few days of reasonable weather  The EPS members after day 6 are quite even in terms of possibilities with some members less amplified and retaining a ridge across the south of the UK. Its quite conceivable that the models might over amplify the jet stream at this distance and keep the finer spell lasting a day or so longer. North Western most parts perhaps closest to atlantic weather fronts which might weaken as they progress further south

 

.

 

Very much an average type of traditional summer pattern for the UK