Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Frosty.]

About ten times more often than they ever happen...And I think it's getting worse, too?

That's oh so true, the charts very often show what we don't actually get, and that's on the day it's been forecast, today is turning into one of those days with many areas just dull and dry.

[stainesbloke]

Excellent post AWD.

[Frosty.]

Ditto, I think what Frosty needs to accept is the MO will always err (quite rightly so) on the side of caution, both with regard to intensity and distribution of storm activity.  I tend to view the warnings they issue as being likely worst case senario 9 times out of 10, with today's output from them looking a classic case in point, but that is not to say some places will not get a deluge.  It's worth remembering this started after Frosty suggested the forecast was, at least for some areas 'apocalyptic' I saw nothing in the modelling to support that and I still don't.... neither by the way do I see anything within the current MO Warnings to support it either.

In my defence shedhead, I have listened to several five live forecasts this morning which were painting a very stormy picture, overkill springs to mind, unusual for professional forecasters to be so OTT, so I was only repeating what they had said.

[Methuselah]

In my defence shedhead, I have listened to several five live forecasts this morning which were painting a very stormy picture, overkill springs to mind, unusual for professional forecasters to be so OTT, so I was only repeating what they had said.

Indeed, Frosty - no one is blaming you...It's just that, these days, we are forever hearing warnings - for snow, for gales, for storms, for bird flu, for whatever - and nine-times-out-of-ten sod all happens?

[stainesbloke]

Met office predictions/warnings for today appear to be miles out again...though there are lots of showers and storms breaking out over France so maybe something later?

[Gordon Webb]

not sure about the rest but I believe I've heard of Bird Flu

[Frosty.]

These look the wettest areas this afternoon across england. The rain across western scotland looks much worse and they are in the cooler atlantic airmass! zero lightening strikes recorded on this stormy day

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Gordon Webb]

Yep latest forecast from the beeb flags up the potential of thundery showers/storms but said they won't be too many even if they form and even the ones trying to come up from France seem to be struggling to cross the channel and as time goes on the risk is pushed further eastwards

Edited June 20, 2013 by Gordon Webb

[Methuselah]

Yep latest forecast from the beeb flags up the potential of thundery showers/storms but said they won't be too many even if they form

Right, that's it. I'm going out to water the plants!

[Geordiesnow]

Indeed, Frosty - no one is blaming you...It's just that, these days, we are forever hearing warnings - for snow, for gales, for storms, for bird flu, for whatever - and nine-times-out-of-ten sod all happens?

 

And what proof you got of that? I seen no warnings of storms at all but just highlighting the risk of perhaps some embedded thundery activity. 

 

its the same old story, IF there is a risk there and the models have shown the risk then its worth mentioning surely? Better say something than nothing at all and then you find out there is actually a storm which causes disruption and flooding. 

 

As for the models, no real change in the output, low pressure for the weekend, slowly but surely head Eastwards and then fills in, but the uncertainty how quickly it heads Eastwards and exactly how much influence this Azores high will have on our weather. I'd imagine the low-ish pressure in the Northern Atlantic will have a big say, if this is further Eastwards it will probably make it easier for the high to cover most of the UK like the 06Z run. 

[Milhouse]

Settled but cool start to the week with some cool upper temperatures brought down by the weekends low

 

[Evening thunder]

The Met Office warnings have only stated it is a low risk of thunderstorms in the warning areas anyway?

Edited June 20, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Summer Sun]

Latest GFS shows pressure rising early next week

 

 

We need to keep an eye on the low to the west of Iceland as it could head our way

 

UKMO also shows pressure slowly building in from the west of Monday

 

The Met Office warnings have only stated it is a low risk of thunderstorms in the warning areas anyway?

 

Correct

 

There is a low risk of isolated thunderstorms breaking out today across central and eastern England along with parts of east Wales, giving some intense downpours. These could give 15-25 mm of rain within an hour and 40 mm within 3 hours very locally. However many places could miss the worst of these.

[Milhouse]

Encouraging GFS so far with temperatures rising to average or a touch above by Wednesday. 2 rather menacing looking lows either side of the UK but neither look like troubling us during next week.

 

Edited June 20, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

Low pressure is anchored across Iceland later next week as a result pressure builds over the UK and temperatures rise

 

 

 

UKMO at t144 pretty much follows this mornings run

 

Edited June 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

That's until the low ends up further south and flattens the ridge but lets not think like that eh? 

 

just had a heavy shower here but no thunder, so frosty was half right

[Frosty.]

A good start to the 12z output, the gfs builds a nice strong ridge over the uk early next week, soon becoming pleasantly warm with long sunny spells and just a low risk of afternoon inland showers breaking out, warmer and fine through the midweek period but with low pressure heading towards northwest scotland later next week.

[Summer Sun]

That's until the low ends up further south and flattens the ridge but lets not think like that eh? 

 

just had a heavy shower here but no thunder, so frosty was half right

 

Well so far the low is moving west to east with the high keeping England and Wales fine and warm the one exception is northern Scotland where they are closer to the low

 

Edited June 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

That's until the low ends up further south and flattens the ridge but lets not think like that eh? 

 

just had a heavy shower here but no thunder, so frosty was half right

 

Well it makes more progress eastwards than was shown on the 6z and it has flattened the high. But pressure is still high enough for a good deal of fine and dry weather with temperatures just the same as the 6z.

[Tony27]

yeah i was implying that on future runs that the Ridge get flattened gavin,  GFS looks better than UKMO, as UKMO takes longer for the high to build properly over us

[Milhouse]

Well so far the low is moving west to east with the high keeping England and Wales fine and warm the one exception is northern Scotland where they are closer to the low

 

 

The Azores high is quite well placed just to the SW of the UK to maintain the ridge into central Europe and the decent weather for the UK.

[Frosty.]

Becoming very warm again later next week, into the mid to high 70's

[Summer Sun]

First signs of the high getting squeezed out 9 days away

 

 

The further west you are the better chance you have of staying dry

 

 

T264 at t288 sees the high trying to push back in again

 

Edited June 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

And what proof you got of that? I seen no warnings of storms at all but just highlighting the risk of perhaps some embedded thundery activity. 

 

its the same old story, IF there is a risk there and the models have shown the risk then its worth mentioning surely? Better say something than nothing at all and then you find out there is actually a storm which causes disruption and flooding. 

 

As for the models, no real change in the output, low pressure for the weekend, slowly but surely head Eastwards and then fills in, but the uncertainty how quickly it heads Eastwards and exactly how much influence this Azores high will have on our weather. I'd imagine the low-ish pressure in the Northern Atlantic will have a big say, if this is further Eastwards it will probably make it easier for the high to cover most of the UK like the 06Z run. 

Good question...Has there been any thunder? My point was that, with all these warnings coming to zilch, people will simply pay them no heed...It's like the boy who cried 'wolf'?

[Geordiesnow]

yeah i was implying that on future runs that the Ridge get flattened gavin,  GFS looks better than UKMO, as UKMO takes longer for the high to build properly over us

 

I would say they are pretty similar really, it is one of those set ups where a bit of patience may be required in all honesty, how quickly that low for the weekend heads eastwards and how much influence will the Azores high will have over us is still yet to be decided. 

 

Plus it will start with quite a chilly NW'ly so its not going to feel all that warm coupled with what I think will be quite a cloudy set up to start with, its hardly deckchairs weather BUT at least it should be turning drier. 

 

The GFS projection charts suggests a sunshine and shower set up for Saturday with most of the showers in Western areas but maybe some more general rain on Sunday in Northern areas, so by no means a washout but a cool windy period is certainly coming up.