Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Frosty.]

Sorry frosty but your sounding a tad OTT, very stormy day and night into tom?!?!?!?!?!.

for some parts of england and wales it will be, while others will miss them and stay fine and warm.

[Captain Shortwave]

for some parts of england and wales it will be, while others will miss them and stay fine and warm.

Or they will do what they have done the last few days, track up through the north sea and miss everyone 

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is today's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday June 20th 2013.All models show the recent warmth as a thing of the past now as the weather deteriorates over the coming 24-36 hours in response to Low pressure making it's way in from off the Atlantic over the weekend with wind and rain for all. In the next 24 hours we have to get through a messy transition into cooler conditions with scattered outbreaks of thundery rain but unfortunately for storm buffs no particularly active thundery breakdown. In fact fresher air arrives by tomorrow with a brief bright and dry lull in the weather for many tomorrow.GFS then gradually pushes the depression away from the UK early next week with the rest of the run basically setting up a SW to NE divide as Southern and Western parts are influenced by a large High to the SW while Northern and Eastern areas remain closest to disturbances running around the top of the High and down over the North sea or NW Europe. Here there is the chance of occasional showers and through FI this might extend to other areas briefly before the divisions reset at the end of the run.The GFS Ensembles continue to show a cool phase under the deep depression at the weekend before a recovery to average values look likely thereon with precipitation fairly minimal through the run. There is little trend for any particular type of weather shown this morning so a period of benign and average conditions look likely.The Jet Stream today remains blowing across the Atlantic and the British isles from now well into next week. there are tentative signs of a weaker flow with time and a tendency for it to lift to a higher latitude at least over the Atlantic although it always seems to favour slipping back South again at times.UKMO today shows a NW flow still blowing down over the UK next Wednesday following the exit NE of the weekend depression on Monday. It would be a case of West is best from this set up as a ridge is knocking on the door there. In the East there could still be enough instability to give rise to a few showers at times in a rather cool feel while the West sees nearer average temperatures.GEM also takes the Low away NE early in the week with a slow but positive build of pressure bringing dry and bright conditions to many for a time in the middle of the week as the ridge flattens but stays reasonably close to the South. By the end of the week the pressure begins to fall again with a weak frontal system making it's way SE over Britain towards next weekend with some light rain for many for a time.NAVGEM today shows a reasonable spell of weather next week as the High to the SW takes control of the UK weather with a ridge keeping things largely dry and bright, more especially in the South where the best of the bright and warm conditions will be. More cloud does encroach over the UK at the end of the run as pressure gently falls.ECM today shows a general West to East split or a SW to NE split in the conditions through next week. The SW half of the UK will become dry soon after the start of the week with a spell of benign and dry conditions with spells of sunshine in average temperatures. The NE half of the Nation too will enjoy some reasonable weather but with a NW flow some scattered showers at times may occur and it will feel a little on the cool side at times.In Summary the weather next week looks relatively benign and non-eventful once we rid our air space of the unseasonal weekend Low. Most areas look likely to have dry or largely dry conditions under close influence of a ridge associated with High pressure to the SW. The ridge will be eroded at times by weak troughs from the NW but in general the ridge is shown to hold it's own and if synoptics remain as they are next weekend I'm sure the eventers and organisers of events, especially Glastonbury local to here will be more than happy with the current output.

[Gordon Webb]

latest forecast from BBC News 24 Shows focus for downpours coming up from continent affecting SE England and east East Anglia with showers elsewhere which could be heavy at times and also heavy rain in the SW and possibly into Wales so the more E and SE you go the worse the weather will tend to be

Edited June 20, 2013 by Gordon Webb

[Frosty.]

Or they will do what they have done the last few days, track up through the north sea and miss everyone 

haha not this time.

[Gael_Force]

Or they will do what they have done the last few days, track up through the north sea and miss everyone 

 

Not today/tonight - now that the upper low is moving up through France the steering will be good for you; doesn't guarantee something for everyone though.

 

Edited June 20, 2013 by Gael_Force

[Evening thunder]

The latest NAE shows nothing much for the UK at the time the chart on the previous page was posted for:

I don't think there will be too much in the way strong thunderstorm activity for the UK, the real hot thundery plume is too far east really. I suppose you could get a few cells or bit of thundery activity in the SE in the stuff crossing the channel at the moment, and maybe something in the showery band in the west. There may also be some surface based heavy showers and thunderstorms develop in parts of England and east Wales, which could give localised high rainfall due to relatively slow movement. No doubt nothing like the near continent will probably see this evening/tonight though.

[DTHFCJ]

looks like agreement from these for something not too bad

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is encouraging this morning, especially from T+144 hours onwards with a strong looking ridge forming across the  uk from the azores/atlantic anticyclone, the most settled conditions being across central and southern parts of the uk with the northern half of scotland eventually becoming more changeable with a freshening westerly flow but light winds, long sunny spells and pleasantly warm weather for the majority of the uk once the cool and unsettled weather clears away from the eastern side of the uk during the first half of next week, looking at the overall picture, there is now at least moderate confidence for a significant improvement for most of the uk during the course of next week, arriving in the west and southwest early next week and then across all areas by around midweek onwards, the Glastonbury festival looks increasingly likely to be fine and warm this year.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[shedhead]

Without question a drier, brighter and warmer outlook is slowly but surely starting to emerge, especially for England and Wales next week, but thereafter the risk still exists for everything to collapse once again from the NW...one to watch for sure. 

 

Edit: 06 GFS does precisely that, whether it actually comes to pass as indicated post T+240hrs however remains to be seen.

Edited June 20, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z is looking good as next week goes on, becoming drier, warmer and sunnier with light winds after a cool unsettled start to next week, especially in the east, something of a northwest-southeast split then develops later next week with some rain for northwestern britain but fine and very warm for the south & east, becoming locally hot by the end of next week followed by a thundery breakdown. As for this weekend, saturday looks the windiest day with local gales and a spell of heavy rain followed by sunshine and heavy showers, sunday more of a sunshine and showers mix from the get go and still on the cool side but then the culprit trough drifts away northeastwards early next week and fills with high pressure building in for several days. 

[Summer Sun]

Its a few days since I looked at the weekend's rainfall and we now have some changes the rain now looks more patchy and lighter the further east you go

 

 

Temperatures remain poor though for late June

 

 

However early next week we see a recovery in temperatures thanks to our old friend high pressure

 

 

[Frosty.]

For some parts of england and wales, it's the calm before the storm, there are some areas with hazy sunshine at the moment but this will be the trigger for some big homegrown thunderstorms and also clusters of storms pushing north from france into the southeast and later into the midlands and east anglia, there is already areas of heavy and thundery rain breaking out and this will intensify as the day goes on, scotland & n.ireland are covered by a weak front with some outbreaks of rain and already into the cooler atlantic airmass but very humid across england and wales with some areas reaching 22-23c, this evening and tonight there will be thunderstorms rumbling up the eastern side of england with another oppressive night, so... becoming stormy with torrential rain across large parts of england and wales today, tomorrow brings a clearance from the west with a window of fine and fresher weather pushing from west to east but then turning wet and windy tomorrow night, clearing up on saturday morning but followed by sunny spells and heavy showers, sunday also looks showery but less windy, then progressively better next week.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[stainesbloke]

Its a few days since I looked at the weekend's rainfall and we now have some changes the rain now looks more patchy and lighter the further east you go

Temperatures remain poor though for late June

However early next week we see a recovery in temperatures thanks to our old friend high pressure

Those charts look more encouraging for some summery weather next week. It's funny because we could actually do with a good soaking. Looks like less than previously thought this weekend. The unseasonal wind and cool temperatures look to be an issue over the weekend.

[Downpour]

Those charts look more encouraging for some summery weather next week. It's funny because we could actually do with a good soaking. Looks like less than previously thought this weekend. The unseasonal wind and cool temperatures look to be an issue over the weekend.

Indeed Staines Bloke. A laughable backtrack from GFS on rainfall in the next few days - utterly craven! This model is becoming a cannon fodder product when it comes to ppn levels. Mowed the lawn last night with the promise of a much-needed dousing but it's bone dry here. I fully expect to be wielding my hose later... (assuming the Mrs is up for it!)

[stainesbloke]

Indeed Staines Bloke. A laughable backtrack from GFS on rainfall in the next few days - utterly craven! This model is becoming a cannon fodder product when it comes to ppn levels. Mowed the lawn last night with the promise of a much-needed dousing but it's bone dry here. I fully expect to be wielding my hose later... (assuming the Mrs is up for it!)

Good luck with the Mrs later lol My allotment pretty dry so have been getting my hose out regularly here. GFS rainfall charts are very unreliable from what I've understood from others experience on here

[Frosty.]

Indeed Staines Bloke. A laughable backtrack from GFS on rainfall in the next few days - utterly craven! This model is becoming a cannon fodder product when it comes to ppn levels. Mowed the lawn last night with the promise of a much-needed dousing but it's bone dry here. I fully expect to be wielding my hose later...(assuming the Mrs is up for it!)

Give it time, the downpours are coming, would be utterly amazed if anywhere across the southeast escaped the deluge as the forecast is apocalyptic.

[summer blizzard]

Does anybody have the minima for early next week. With cool uppers and light wind from Sunday-Wednesday i imagine minima and areas around the coast will be cool.

[Frosty.]

A slight improvement in the latest met office update with a better chance of the weather becoming dry with sunny periods during next week but then becoming unsettled in the northwest of the uk later next week, this unsettled weather occasionally making inroads south & east but the general theme is the further southeast you are, the drier and brighter it will be compared to the north and west, temperatures around average but feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine, so, a getting better spell next week which could continue to upgrade.

Edited June 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[shedhead]

Give it time, the downpours are coming, would be utterly amazed if anywhere across the southeast escaped the deluge as the forecast is apocalyptic.

Come on Frosty....we often see a degree of poetic licence used on here, but 'apocalyptic'??

[Frosty.]

Come on Frosty....we often see a degree of poetic licence used on here, but 'apocalyptic'??

Well how often do we get a high risk of torrential thunderstorms over a wide area with warnings for torrential rain, i'm sure if you got caught in a torrential hailstorm or flash flood today, you would think differently, there is a high risk of disruptive weather today and tonight with hail, torrential rain and lightening strikes, probably not a plague of frogs or locust though.

[TonyH]

Bet some parts of the SE are still dry come Monday.

[shedhead]

Well how often do we get a high risk of torrential thunderstorms over a wide area with warnings for torrential rain, i'm sure if you got caught in a torrential hailstorm or flash flood today, you would think differently, there is a high risk of disruptive weather today and tonight with hail, torrential rain and lightening strikes, probably not a plague of frogs or locust though.

If we're talking about Germany then maybe, but none of the currently available modelling suggest the likeihood of anything severe across the UK, let alone apocalyptic. 

Edited June 20, 2013 by shedhead

[Milhouse]

Plenty of positive signs across all models this morning. Low pressure drags its heels a bit after departing the UK on the ECM but it moves north allowing the Azores High to ridge under it. Very nice from the GFS 6z too and turning very warm by the end of the week.

[Gordon Webb]

you mean this week or next week ?