Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Isolated Frost]

Not sure whether this should go on a weather forum or the sports zone, Athers just said its 'bitterly cold',  **** off its not 'bitterly cold', its a few degrees below average, bitterly cold is dec 2010, Jan 87, feb 91, jan 2010, etc etc

It's all down to someone's feeling. You can feel bitterly cold, you don't statistics or temperatures to back that up. Try being at Whitley Bay like I was today, by the beach in them winds. I felt bloody cold, but 11c wouldn't suggest it.

[Isolated Frost]

8 of the last 10 days have recorded single figure minima here, definitely feeling more autumnal. October to be dominated by W'lies, more wet in the north and dry in the south, before a very cold Nov dominated by N/NE winds. Ave' it!

[feb1991blizzard]

It's all down to someone's feeling. You can feel bitterly cold, you don't statistics or temperatures to back that up. Try being at Whitley Bay like I was today, by the beach in them winds. I felt bloody cold, but 11c wouldn't suggest it.

 

It must be all down to the individual then, because I have never felt bitterly cold in 11c, I have felt a bit chilly in 11c but never bitterly cold, I hate heat and I have felt uncomfortable in 22c outdoors if the sun is beating down on me but I have never felt like an oven at 22c where as I have at 29c, that's the difference.

[feb1991blizzard]

Gutted about the ECM 12z.

[Isolated Frost]

Plenty of warm, comfortable temperature sunny days which are perfect to relax out in, and some cooler, fresher evenings and mornings as well. Looks lovely!

[March Blizzard]

It must be all down to the individual then, because I have never felt bitterly cold in 11c, I have felt a bit chilly in 11c but never bitterly cold, I hate heat and I have felt uncomfortable in 22c outdoors if the sun is beating down on me but I have never felt like an oven at 22c where as I have at 29c, that's the difference.

I was in Rhos on sea (North Wales) before, it was quite windy and about 12C. I was wearing jeans and a light jumper and felt fine whereas most locals were in coats and scarves, even saw someone wearing gloves! Slightly bemusing.

[summer blizzard]

Will be interesting to see whether the pattern reverts to my cool, unsettled October or whether the people predicting a settled month are correct.

[Relativistic]

Will be interesting to see whether the pattern reverts to my cool, unsettled October or whether the people predicting a settled month are correct.

I'd rather your prediction so good luck!

[Isolated Frost]

I'm going for a month which is more dominated by the atlantic in the north, and more milder in the south, but a generally more unsettled, and slightly milder month.

[Summer Sun]

IF CFS is correct we'll keep high pressure controlling our weather till the final month of Autumn

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lettucing Gutted]

I'm sick of warm high pressure systems.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm sick of warm high pressure systems.

 

Unfortunately, my forecast (and several others it seems) is for a quite a mild October. My own forecast goes for some Bartlett-esque conditions. Sorry

[Summer Sun]

I'm sick of warm high pressure systems.

 

We're making up for the lack of them in the past 6 summers

[Summer Sun]

Latest CFS continues to back a settled, fairly mild and drier than normal October with high pressure continuing to dominate our weather

 

 

 

 

 

Update from 2 days ago - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77189-autumn-2013-thoughts-prospects-and-forecasts/?p=2789503

Edited September 19, 2013 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

people who think that because the 564 line is over the uk on some models, we are going to get some heatwave shouldn't get their hopes up TBH, no 2011 happening here, the MAX predicted for my area on sunday is 18c and 21 absolute max for a week after that.

[feb1991blizzard]

BEN NEVIS PASTING ALERT!!!

 

 

 

 

 

[Mark Neal.]

Colder uppers ain't far away. A teaser of what's to come?

[feb1991blizzard]

Can someone please tell me where this 'heatwave' is coming from, not being rude but the delusional posts in the model output forum are getting boring, I would love to be able to post in winter but right now im glad im banned because if I wasn't, I soon would be!!,  Even discounting the downward trend of temps today, the met office are saying 'warm' or above average in the south, whilst I don't like some people being pedantic over my username and claiming it wasn't a blizzard by met definition, the forecast for next week, be it raw NWP, or NWP with forecaster interpretation, is not even close to being a heatwave, a heatwave is something like a week of max temps of 30c, this is barely mid 20s and then only in the SE, and is only likely to be a few days.

Edited September 19, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Dancerwithwings]

Can someone please tell me where this 'heatwave' is coming from, not being rude but the delusional posts in the model output forum are getting boring, I would love to be able to post in winter but right now im glad im banned because if I wasn't, I soon would be!!,  Even discounting the downward trend of temps today, the met office are saying 'warm' or above average in the south, whilst I don't like some people being pedantic over my username and claiming it wasn't a blizzard by met definition, the forecast for next week, be it raw NWP, or NWP with forecaster interpretation, is not even close to being a heatwave, a heatwave is something like a week of max temps of 30c, this is barely mid 20s and then only in the SE, and is only likely to be a few days.

Sorry to her you've been banned from winter! Been a coldie like many what a thrend to be banned from i feel for you

It's been the best thrend over the last two weeks by far....... And the rest will go down in history ..Oh sorry that was your last post.....For now

[feb1991blizzard]

Sorry to her you've been banned from winter! Been a coldie like many what a thrend to be banned from i feel for you

It's been the best thrend over the last two weeks by far....... And the rest will go down in history ..Oh sorry that was your last post.....For now

 

Yes, I better leave that one now, sorry mods, that was just a throw away comment designed to give my opinion on the next weeks weather, perhaps an ill thought out post but I haven't been too bad lately so forgive me that one.

[Jax]

people who think that because the 564 line is over the uk on some models, we are going to get some heatwave shouldn't get their hopes up TBH, no 2011 happening here, the MAX predicted for my area on sunday is 18c and 21 absolute max for a week after that.

I will take 18-21oC for the next week quite happily thank you

 

Winter and its cold will be here soon enough I am sure, so I am happy to take these tail end season warm and mild spells until then.

[feb1991blizzard]

I will take 18-21oC for the next week quite happily thank you

 

Winter and its cold will be here soon enough I am sure, so I am happy to take these tail end season warm and mild spells until then.

 

 

Fair enough but 18-21 is not a heatwave and is only just above average for the South, meanwhile the latest GFS run just doesn't have a sharp enough structure to send strong upper ridging into greeny as to send that trough far enough south from my point of view but only up tpo 200hrs yet.

[feb1991blizzard]

NOW THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING --------  LOVELY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

NOW THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING --------  LOVELY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

Such pretty patterns! Same come December please!

[feb1991blizzard]

Such pretty patterns! Same come December please!

 

Yes, great minds think alike, I was just thinking with lower heights but the same surface profile then that would be 8th December 1990 all over again-  around 9 inches Midlands, massive drifts peninnes.

Edited September 19, 2013 by feb1991blizzard