Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Weather-history]

Beautiful early sunny afternoon, pleasantly warm. Some trees are showing obvious leaf colour changes and losses. Oaks full of acorns. Plenty of blackberries.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Leaves are just on the turn now, but they'll still be there in bloody Spring at this rate if there's no wind to bring 'em down. God I hope the change comes with the abruptness and ferocity of a nuclear bomb.

 

Have we ever had an October void of any kind of low pressure and high winds, that meant a lot of leaves still on the trees heading into November?

[laserguy]

Have we ever had an October void of any kind of low pressure and high winds, that meant a lot of leaves still on the trees heading into November?

 

For sure - but they'd pretty much all fallen by Bonfire Night last year.

[Tony27]

some leaves stay on the trees till late november here, 

[syed2878]

what were the uppers like on october 28th 2008? When we had that snowfall. That's the early snow i can remembor before winter.

[Summer Sun]

Just tomorrow to go before we leave the first month of Autumn

 

The 2nd month of Autumn is still average to above for all of us though it does look more unsettled

 

 

November looks settled at this stage with high pressure right over us which could result in a lot of fog and possibly frost if the sky was clear at night temperatures would close to or slightly below average rainfall would be well below normal if high pressure set up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowponies]

A lot of the trees on the turn now, going a beautiful golden colour, living on the edge of Lydford gorge it's such a gorgeous time of year. Gutted my saddle no longer fits my horse (cant quite afford a new one yet) so can't enjoy the sunsets reflecting on the moor making everything look like a goldy orange colour.

Now looking forward to the temperatures cooling and the first frosts as mucking out horses for a living is just awful in warm weather!!

Horse bedding and hay now ordered, rugs are all out and ready, very much looking forward to winter now with the dark evenings and the cold nights.

Not quite thinking about the endless mud yet though!

[Dancerwithwings]

what were the uppers like on october 28th 2008? When we had that snowfall. That's the early snow i can remembor before winter.

 

Around the -4 mark and the Dam line of 528 was well to the south of us 

At 2pm On that day we had temps around the 5c-6c and Dew point of 3c and rain

But by 4pm temps dropped to 1c and DP 0C with sleet /wet snow

and one hour later Temps 0C and DP -1  and heavy snow

and overnight it fell to -3

Edited September 29, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Jax]

Well 1/3 in to Autumn and rather enjoying it so far, there are some signs of the seasonal change now so ye ole camera may be coming out again very soon so I can add to the 1k+ image collection I have for my ongoing art project.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I'm looking at what FI is showing in the models.  Two reasons, I think the HP to our ESE looks a given into early Oct with mild to very mild temps...which I suggest the the Indian summer like weather will persist for upto the back end of 2nd week, then models around 9-12 showing the signs of change with attack from NW.  I think when this change comes it will be a 'stark' change from calm to stormy to vey stormy.  Looking forward to October bigstyle

 

BFTP 

[laserguy]

 I think when this change comes it will be a 'stark' change from calm to stormy to vey stormy.  Looking forward to October bigstyle

 

 

 

God I hope you're right - the tedious awfulness of the last xx weeks needs avenging - big style.

[Relativistic]

God I hope you're right - the tedious awfulness of the last xx weeks needs avenging - big style.

Hear hear.

[Mark Neal.]

Becoming Unsettled this week with best weather to the East. Then high pressure returning from Azores with that Ex Storm/Hurrixane in Atlantic being a help again keeping our mild weather again. Stormy thereafter? With Atlantic fighting back or another false dawn?

[DAVID SNOW]

God I hope you're right - the tedious awfulness of the last xx weeks needs avenging - big style.

 

Mother nature has a great pair of scales...

 

She will balance things out.

[laserguy]

Mother nature has a great pair of scales...

 

She will balance things out.

 

I know... it's the waiting that's getting to me.

[Weather-history]

God I hope you're right - the tedious awfulness of the last xx weeks needs avenging - big style.

All I can say more like what we got this weekend here for October.

[Weather-history]

Agree to the last few replies..all a question of balance and it could go either way - saying that after say a stormier spell, no matter when, it is more likely to calm down albeit eventually. Than usually become even stormier.

I have said this a number of times but what balances what out? If it were that simple, weather balancing, then weather prediction would be easy but it isn't. The weather may appear to balance out but it isn't a perfect balance and you don't know what is balancing what out.

[MP-R]

Sounds like the southwest had some lively weather, especially Devon and Cornwall, on Saturday. I'm now in the southeast where it's more benign but it was lovely taking a walk in Windsor Great Park yesterday with it feeling warm still and the sun out. Very pleasant autumn weather at present.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Mother nature has a great pair of scales...

 

She will balance things out.

Well I hope the "stark change" is to cold winds or at least cold raw storms rather than mild zonality rubbish as in 2006, 2009, 2011 and many other autumns like those.

Edited September 30, 2013 by Craig Evans

[Biggin]

No sign of any frosts for the SE yet ???

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I hope the "stark change" is to cold winds or at least cold raw storms rather than mild zonality rubbish.

We are what I call 'in a rut' weather at present and to me I am happy with this as the jetstream change we have experienced means that we'll get this type of set up and not the dreaded GIN corridor zoneality as the norm.

Look to our NW for the when the change happens and it hopefully will 'liven' up and then a shift south later.  Of course this rut may go on into Nov or we could see a quick collapse, what will be will be but giving it a forecast shot is fun.

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Is this the most high pressure dominated forecast start to October in memory or was the record CET October 2001 similar?

[Weather-history]

Is this the most high pressure dominated forecast start to October in memory or was the record CET October 2001 similar?

October 2001 was not a dry and settled monthBBC forecasts from that month. http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqgJHF6qI_9tjCnrRS936PW

[Coast]

We are what I call 'in a rut' weather at present and to me I am happy with this as the jetstream change we have experienced means that we'll get this type of set up and not the dreaded GIN corridor zoneality as the norm.

 

 

Recent settled weather caused by unusual jet stream

 

The final day of September saw further warm and sunny weather with temperatures reaching 20°C in parts of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire. In fact, there's been no significant rain since the 19th September and, whilst we've seen plenty of dry days, the usual Autumn storms have been notable for their absence.

 

The cause of the prolonged settled spell can be attributed to the unusual shape of the jet stream. The jet stream is a current of fast-flowing air high up in the atmosphere. It tends to act like a conveyor belt: picking up low pressure systems in the Atlantic and steering them towards northwest Europe. However, recently the jet stream has become disrupted and it has split in two - diverting any Autumn storms to the north and south of the UK and leaving high pressure in charge throughout the Anglia region.

 

Later this week, the jet stream will return to a more typical pattern and the weather in the UK will turn more unsettled. It will cloud over during Wednesday with a spell of rain during the day. Dry initially Thursday but heavy rain arriving during the afternoon, then brighter with scattered showers on Friday. Breezy throughout.

 

+ video presentation here:

 

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2013-09-30/recent-settled-weather-caused-by-unusual-jet-stream/