Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Captain Shortwave]

Horrible, boring, static weather. TBH most of the days over the last couple of weeks have just been warm and overcast. Just mind numbingly boring. I wonder when we'll get a proper powerful autumn storm again (outside of November and December)?!

To those moaning about March- at least there was something going on. Anyone who honestly enjoys static grey skies and temps continually in the teens by day and night cannot call themselves weather enthusiasts IMO.

Not everywhere has been grey and cloudy, most of the last 10 days have been clear and sunny here, apart from a cloudy day last Monday and yesterday where we got 30 minutes of rain late afternoon. The rest has been clear and pleasant, if a little breezy recently.

With winds off the continent again developing next week, I look forward to a continuation of the sunny conditions (touchwood)

 

I can imangine they are like this current weather in real life. Dull and Lifeless!!!! 

considering it's sunny and bright here, that means I'm happy and positive. Ironically you are the first person to even call me positive 

Edited October 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

One thing I will say is well done CFS towards the end of September it picked up on high pressure for this month and from Saturday it will be spot on

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Not everywhere has been grey and cloudy, most of the last 10 days have been clear and sunny here, apart from a cloudy day last Monday and yesterday where we got 30 minutes of rain late afternoon. The rest has been clear and pleasant, if a little breezy recently.

With winds off the continent again developing next week, I look forward to a continuation of the sunny conditions (touchwood)

considering it's sunny and bright here, that means I'm happy and positive. Ironically you are the first person to even call me positive 

 

How about happy lol?

[smithyweather]

I think this October is different though. The jet stream is once again exhibiting some strange behaviour. Far from flat and zonal. We happen to be on the warmer side of the jet but other mid latitude locations are looking to get an early pasting of winter. It's symptomatic of how the jet has been for 5 or so years now.I don't think we'll have a record challenger of an October though anyway. I suspect fog and frost will become more common as we progress through the month.

I don't think it will though. Each night is double figures and it does not cool down.

[smithyweather]

Autumn?? Last nights low here was 15.2c. Have not seen a single digit temp since 19th sept. It just seems like near constant warmth now since early july (bar some cooler days during sept) and im getting rightly fed up with it. Humid dull mild nonsense. Then we have certain people in the MOD thread with their little agendas,HP this Hp that blah ,blah blah. The same stuff now for how many wks??

I know they go on about how great it is and how its gonna be sunny but it never is!!!

[Chris K]

One thing I will say is well done CFS towards the end of September it picked up on high pressure for this month and from Saturday it will be spot on

Did it forecast this from a couple of runs or was it a trend over a longer amount of time?

Edited October 3, 2013 by Chris K

[Summer Sun]

Did it forecast this from a couple of runs or was it a trend over a longer amount of time?

 

It was pretty consistent yes some runs didn't have high pressure but it was a good trend and its looking pretty good so far

[Chris K]

It was pretty consistent yes some runs didn't have high pressure but it was a good trend and its looking pretty good so far

 

Looking interesting for some of the winter runs then, with the northern blocking possibilities as the main trend for months now 

 

I am sure many will look back come the end of winter on the CFS performance with interest, whatever the outcome.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Indeed the jetstream has been split and continues its 'general' meridional set up with in places being well south of normal.  With this type of jetstream pattern 'extremes' may well be experienced both cold and warm, wet an dry.   This will last for a couple of weeks yet too, so be prepared for 'boredom' for some on here.

 

BFTP 

[Summer Sun]

Looking interesting for some of the winter runs then, with the northern blocking possibilities as the main trend for months now 

 

I am sure many will look back come the end of winter on the CFS performance with interest, whatever the outcome.

 

Indeed though it must be stressed CFS picked up on the October trend quite late (mid September onwards) so for the start of winter we are still looking at 4 to 6 weeks or so before we can get good confidence for December

[Relativistic]

Stupid weather. It's 21C indoors with windows wide open. Annoyingly stuffy in here. Once this spell of weather is over I hope we don't see temperatures like this again until May next year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

And I thought the uncomfortable nights were behind me.

 

Haven't had a single digit minimum in 2 weeks, 3 of those minima were above 15C and another 7 were above 14C!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just wait until the second week, some impressive warmth values will be experienced methinks

 

 

BFTP

[Summer of 95]

October air frosts- anyone remember them? They were a given here every year up until the late 90s, and save for 2003 have hardly been seen since, even since the end of the 20 years without a winter. The Octobers of 1992, 1993 and 1997 I especially remember for   some really good hard white frosts, often colder than the winters produced (lowest temp of 97-98 winter was in October 1997!). 

 

Why have they almost vanished in the past 15 years? Yes there have been some warm Octobers but even the average ones have been almost frost free, we had an air frost in April 2011 which was a record warm month. Even May has actually had more air frost than October in recent years.

[cheese]

We still get them here, though they have probably decreased in frequency as the years have gotten warmer. We have an average of 1.6 days of air frost in October.

 

The following years recorded air frost in October in Church Fenton since 2002:

 

2011

2010

2008

2007

2003

2002

Edited October 4, 2013 by cheese

[syed2878]

going by the model outputs i don't think we will get any autumn weather any time soon. Lets hope this patern we r in atm changes quite soon, as much i enjoy spring and summer i do like to c some proper autumn weather too.

[Weather-history]

The Octobers of 1992, 1993 and 1997 I especially remember for   some really good hard white frosts, often colder than the winters produced (lowest temp of 97-98 winter was in October 1997!).  

[smithyweather]

October air frosts- anyone remember them? They were a given here every year up until the late 90s, and save for 2003 have hardly been seen since, even since the end of the 20 years without a winter. The Octobers of 1992, 1993 and 1997 I especially remember for some really good hard white frosts, often colder than the winters produced (lowest temp of 97-98 winter was in October 1997!). Why have they almost vanished in the past 15 years? Yes there have been some warm Octobers but even the average ones have been almost frost free, we had an air frost in April 2011 which was a record warm month. Even May has actually had more air frost than October in recent years.

I have an October frost ever year????

[Lettucing Gutted]

It's remarkable how cold the end of October 1997 was since the 850 HPA temperatures were about a very mild 5C.  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00219971029.gif  This must be the most exceptional spell of inversion cold outside of winter ever.

Edited October 4, 2013 by Craig Evans

[Weather-history]

It's remarkable how cold the end of October 1997 was since the 850 HPA temperatures were about a very mild 5C.  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00219971029.gif  This must me the most exceptional spell of inversion cold outside of winter ever.

[smithyweather]

Not cold. I've had 2c max in October before.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Not cold. I've had 2c max in October before.

 

We get it smithy - you have had snow, blizzards and freezing temperatures on a regular occurrence in October.

 

Where exactly do you live in Northern Ireland? 2000m up in a baloon?

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Not cold. I've had 2c max in October before.

The coldest ever maximum in Northern Ireland for October is 2.7C in 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/extremes/monthly_temperature_country.html

So what RD said 

Edited October 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

I'm hoping that the first Arctic blast will come in November: a warm October, like 1969 was, ought to work wonders at increasing the chance of thundersnow...

[Relativistic]

The Sun is shining and temperatures have hit 20.6C today, with an overnight minimum of 15.6C. I know far more impressive October warmth has occurred in the past but it still feels like Summer!