Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[feb1991blizzard]

Disappointing ECM.

[stewfox]

October air frosts- anyone remember them? They were a given here every year up until the late 90s, and save for 2003 have hardly been seen since, even since the end of the 20 years without a winter. The Octobers of 1992, 1993 and 1997 I especially remember for   some really good hard white frosts, often colder than the winters produced (lowest temp of 97-98 winter was in October 1997!). 

 

Why have they almost vanished in the past 15 years? Yes there have been some warm Octobers but even the average ones have been almost frost free, we had an air frost in April 2011 which was a record warm month. Even May has actually had more air frost than October in recent years.

 

We had a number of October frost in 2010 and 2012 , I'm sure your area would have had some, the CET mean would support that

[Gaz1985]

October air frosts- anyone remember them? They were a given here every year up until the late 90s, and save for 2003 have hardly been seen since, even since the end of the 20 years without a winter. The Octobers of 1992, 1993 and 1997 I especially remember for   some really good hard white frosts, often colder than the winters produced (lowest temp of 97-98 winter was in October 1997!). 

 

Why have they almost vanished in the past 15 years? Yes there have been some warm Octobers but even the average ones have been almost frost free, we had an air frost in April 2011 which was a record warm month. Even May has actually had more air frost than October in recent years.

 

Yes 1992 and 1993 were really rather chilly for October, I don't really remember the frosts as I was age 7 and 8 in those years.

 

1993 seen more or less a week of air frosts in a row at Manchester airport starting from the 14th with the lowest recorded -4.3c so a harsh frost that morning for October, must of been a white shock! http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Manchester_Airport/10-1993/33340.htm

 

October 1992: http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Manchester_Airport/10-1992/33340.htm

 

 

As seen October 1993 had 10 air frosts. October 1992 had 8 air frosts. Both certainly giving some mild Winter months a run for their money.

 

October 1992 had colder max temps with a few days maxing at only 7c.

 

Last time we had an October with a min temperature of -1c or below was October 2003, we had 3 in that month. http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Manchester_Airport/10-2003/33340.htm

Edited October 4, 2013 by Gaz1985

[smithyweather]

Castlederg had a frost in September 22nd last year.

[smithyweather]

We get it smithy - you have had snow, blizzards and freezing temperatures on a regular occurrence in October.Where exactly do you live in Northern Ireland? 2000m up in a baloon?

Well I just said that. But I do know that it was 4c max in October 2008.It doesn't snow here every October every few years. But it does be frosty here most Octobers. So yea I would be right.

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

are we getting there?

Edited October 5, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Feb

GFS and ECM at odds with each other, presently I'm still siding with GFS as I think ECM is off on one.  I do 'prefer' the ECM outcome though so let's hope. 

 

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

Hi Feb

GFS and ECM at odds with each other, presently I'm still siding with GFS as I think ECM is off on one.  I do 'prefer' the ECM outcome though so let's hope. 

 

 

BFTP

 

 

I like that ECM 216, if only we could get that atlantic trough to disrupt / head SE and the block move NW, we might even be able to get some of that cold to the NE to head towards us.

 

Problem is that trough doesn't look tilted right.

Edited October 5, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Relativistic]

I'm much preferring the outcome of the ECM, the GFS is looking dire.

[Isolated Frost]

I don't care much more cold at the moment, the warmth is pleasant and there's some sun to brighten it up as well; and much of Russia and Eastern Europe are cooling very nicely , would like one more warm spell w/ sun, one Scandinavia northerly blast w/ snow for much of Scandi - and then time to go cold as we move into November.

[Summer Sun]

Turning cooler this week with northerly winds

 

Find out the full details for the week ahead here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2802092

[Evening thunder]

October air frosts- anyone remember them? They were a given here every year up until the late 90s, and save for 2003 have hardly been seen since, even since the end of the 20 years without a winter. The Octobers of 1992, 1993 and 1997 I especially remember for   some really good hard white frosts, often colder than the winters produced (lowest temp of 97-98 winter was in October 1997!). 

 

Why have they almost vanished in the past 15 years? Yes there have been some warm Octobers but even the average ones have been almost frost free, we had an air frost in April 2011 which was a record warm month. Even May has actually had more air frost than October in recent years.

 

It's not unusual for me to record October air frost at home in east Devon. Lowest temps each October were:

 

2007: 0.6c2008: -2.9c (oddly less than 24 hours later this happenend and my school recorded 187mm of rain..)2009: 0.9c

2010: -2.8c (and another -2.7c)

2011: 0.8c

2012: -1.4c

 

So air frost seemingly happening every year since getting my station.

 

In 2010 I had air frost on the 26th September, low -0.1c. Also ground frost and 3.0c on the 30th August. Quite a notable year for low minima that was.

 

I am in a valley so more prone than surrounding higher ground, though some other nearby areas like Exeter airport get similar or even slightly lower mins.

 

Not sure how the Egham area fairs, probably not that common here as most things seems more mundane here (apart from warmth/heat though I'm not here in Summer)

[Weather-history]

Leaves are falling off trees more readily now.

[Relativistic]

Leaves are falling off trees more readily now.

Here, leaves are starting to turn now, thank goodness.

[Weather-history]

Chilliest start so far this autumn. Crystal clarity to sky.

[Weather-history]

10 years ago today it got to 20.5C at Shobdon.

Less than two weeks later, maxima couldn't even get into double figures

[Summer Sun]

The latest met office longer range update remains consistent with no sign of anything cold for its update till November 9th as a result frost risk is the south is likely to be lower than normal

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Oct 2013 to Saturday 9 Nov 2013:

 

The unsettled weather expected by late October is considered more likely than not to persist through the rest of the month onwards into the first week of November, leading to slightly above average rainfall amounts for some regions. Temperatures during this period may well remain close to or a little above average throughout, especially in the south, leading to a lower risk of frost here than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that the second week of November may see drier than average conditions across some parts of the country with temperatures probably returning to average.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Well it looks like we can say goodbye to another year finishing below the 1961-1990 CET average.

[Skullzrulerz]

Well it looks like we can say goodbye to another year finishing below the 1961-1990 CET average.

Its too early to say that yet.

[Zenarcher]

Short and update on my Autumn 2013 forecast, will do a final short update at the very end of the month for November.

 

Below is based on both the CFS data and Climate Simulator which I've just put the latest data into it for a up to date forecast on the temperatures.

 

Rest of October:

 

Temps: Both the CFS and Climate Simulator agree on the temperatures staying close to average but there may be some periods in the North of milder weather and some colder weather in the South.

 

Rainfall: Looking highly likely that rainfall will be below average for all of the UK and Ireland for the rest of the month.

 

November:

 

Temps: Once again the CFS and Climate Simulator agree on the temperature either being average or slightly above average.

 

Rainfall: Still looking below average for most of the UK, only Ireland and Northern England can expect average rainfall.

 

December:

 

Temps: The CFS and Climate Simulator both agree again on temperatures being mostly above average.

 

Rainfall: After two months of expected below average rainfall, December is looking to return back to Normal.

 

Pressure Patterns:

 

October is likely to see high pressure over the UK for most of the time so this would explain below average rainfall and temperatures staying average to above average. November, pressure over Greenland looks stronger this spreads down over Iceland and to the UK. December low pressure mostly sits over the UK but high pressure is never far away from our North.

 

[Buriedundersnow]

taking a look at the 0z runs ECM,GFS and UKMO they all look similar at 144h

 

 

from here it wouldn't need much for us to see an early blast of winter

 

 

black arrow:  where we would like to see that trough go

 

red arrow: wind source if the trough was to clear through and would give us a proper arctic sourced cold spell

 

obviously ECM and GFS aren't going for this in there longer range but we have seen models change before and this is how I would like to see them change in the net few days

Edited October 11, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Relativistic]

taking a look at the 0z runs ECM,GFS and UKMO they all look similar at 144hECH1-144.gif gfsnh-2013101100-0-144.png UN144-21.giffrom here it wouldn't need much for us to see an early blast of winterUN144-212.gifblack arrow: where we would like to see that trough gored arrow: wind source if the trough was to clear through and would give us a proper actric sourced cold spellobviously ECM and GFS aren't going for this in there longer range but we have seen models change before and this is how I would like to see them change in the net few days

It would be fantastic if this could be achieved. Would really start to mend the damage that has been done to the CET.

[cheese]

Here, leaves are starting to turn now, thank goodness.

They have been turning here since September, but now the wind is just blowing a load of leaves off before they get the chance to even turn. I think this is going to be a poor year for foliage colours unless we get some cooler, sunnier and calmer weather.

[Relativistic]

They have been turning here since September, but now the wind is just blowing a load of leaves off before they get the chance to even turn. I think this is going to be a poor year for foliage colours unless we get some cooler, sunnier and calmer weather.

I suppose that's the upside with most of the leaves remaining green and strong, they haven't been blown off by the wind that we've had in the last few days. Noticeably more and more leaves are starting to change colour though, but the vast majority are still green. Edited October 12, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Richard2901]

The only colour in the trees here are the leaves that changed in September and many of them have fallen off now.

Any leaves that were green at the end of September still are. It has yet to drop below 5C in October. It's just ridiculous. All this 'cold' spell has brought is average minima. It,s worse than 2006 which had dropped to 3.8C by this stage of the month.