Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thanks for that Weather-history.  I notice the top 3 CET October monthly records for the last 350 years all occurred in the 21st century (2001, 2005, 2006), so it wouldn't be a major shock if Oct 2013 joined them in the top 5 would it?

 

+ very interesting link there Coast.  If we kept this jet stream change into November, would that mean a mild November too?

Edited October 1, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Richard2901]

October 2007 was very settled and high pressure dominated. I only had 8 days with measurable rain and 16mm for the month.

 

It was also the only October in the past decade to see any real warmth with 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2011 just full of the dross we have at the moment: cloudy skies with average day temperatures and ridiculously mild nights. A repeat of any of them would be just unbearable - truly awful months.

[Weather-history]

I am surprised that old chestnut "mild dry Octobers favour cold winters" hasn't come out yet.

It does look like drying up over the weekend.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not only dry but warm conditions.  I am very happy with the outlook and temps in low 20s could be had during 1 st half of the month.  W H yes that has been looked at and the stats don't stck up do they. 

 

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

Warm, but certainly not dry in Ireland. Had about a dozen heavy downpours since yesterday. The two most impressive being at 12.30am and 6.30am today, the earlier one having a few claps of thunder thrown in. The rainfall total, of 31mm so far this October, is nearly 3/4s of what was recorded in all of September!

 

There is currently an orange warning out for 50-60mm of rain over the next 24 hours in southern Ireland (accompanied by more thunder), so by the end of today, I could have double Septembers rainfall in 2 days. 

Edited October 2, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's monthly forecast

 

Valid from 06/12 to 02/01 2013

Mixed October

Issued: Tuesday 1st October 2013
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

 

A tricky October forecast

This forecast has been one which has been very tricky to produce. There has been little consistent guidance from computer models, and other forecast methods, such as comparisons with previous years are suggesting either wet or dry conditions, with nothing in between! We have opted for a more unsettled scenario developing for the final third of the month, although turning drier and potentially frosty early in November.

*6/10/13 to 13/10/13*

 

Pressure looks set to build through this week from the south. This is going to be placing the emphasis on dry weather for much of the country, as well as sunny spells. However, there may be fronts trapped within the high and these could bring some cloud and outbreaks of rain through central Ireland and northern parts of England in the middle of the week. Indications are that temperatures will be rising through the week, becoming very warm in places, especially in the east and south. Into the weekend there are some hints of falling temperatures and the potential for cooler, windy weather, but the probability of this is considered low (40%) as of this forecast issue date.

*14/10/13 to 20/10/13*

 

Plenty of uncertainty in how the weather pattern develops into this week. The most likely scenario is that despite a few fair days early in the week, conditions are likely to be turning more unsettled and the week progresses. Temperatures are likely to fall to near normal and it will become breezier too. Do note however, that there is a 30% chance of high pressure dominating with conditions being much more settled.

*29/10/13......5/11/13*

 

The end of the month is probably going to be unsettled, wet and windy. There could be some heavy rain at times, especially in the north. Widespread, severe gales could occur, although again note low confidence. Signs of high pressure building towards the end of this forecast period with conditions become more settled.

*6/11/13......12/11/13*

 

Higher pressure may build through the country through this week. This will lead to frosty nights, but daytimes should be dry with good spells of sunshine. Little change is expected through the period.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20131001

 

And the seasonal outlook

 

Changeable November

Unsettled December

Issued: Tuesday 1st October 2013
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*November*

 

November is a month which, at the present time, looks set to be dominated by high pressure during it's first half. The tendency will be for the high to be to the north of the country,with lower pressure to the south. A dry and frosty start, with the risk of mist and fog being widespread. In fog daytime temperatures will be cold, but feeling nearer normal where the sun comes through. Southern areas will always be at risk of rain, although the risk of rain increases as the month progresses. Sometime after the 10th may see the breakdown begin. It may be that later in the month that the rain turns more persistent from the south, and then all areas going into a more unsettled period. Be aware of the risk of sleet and possibly snow as the break occurs. It is likely that milder weather returns fairly quickly as the breakdown starts, with sleet and snow short lived.

*December*

There is much discrepancy between forecast models at this time. However, we currently lean into the idea of December being unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds at times. There is evidence merging of the westerly flow across the Atlantic being stronger than normal, leading to an enhanced jet stream. This would lead to more precipitation than usual, perhaps 150 to 180% of normal rainfall. Temperatures would likely be around normal, and there is the risk of some snow at times, especially through Ireland and Scotland, as well as northern England.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20131001

Edited October 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

Weather Online's monthly forecast

 

Valid from 06/12 to 02/01 2013

Mixed October

Issued: Tuesday 1st October 2013

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

 

A tricky October forecast

This forecast has been one which has been very tricky to produce. There has been little consistent guidance from computer models, and other forecast methods, such as comparisons with previous years are suggesting either wet or dry conditions, with nothing in between! We have opted for a more unsettled scenario developing for the final third of the month, although turning drier and potentially frosty early in November.

*6/10/13 to 13/10/13*

 

Pressure looks set to build through this week from the south. This is going to be placing the emphasis on dry weather for much of the country, as well as sunny spells. However, there may be fronts trapped within the high and these could bring some cloud and outbreaks of rain through central Ireland and northern parts of England in the middle of the week. Indications are that temperatures will be rising through the week, becoming very warm in places, especially in the east and south. Into the weekend there are some hints of falling temperatures and the potential for cooler, windy weather, but the probability of this is considered low (40%) as of this forecast issue date.

*14/10/13 to 20/10/13*

 

Plenty of uncertainty in how the weather pattern develops into this week. The most likely scenario is that despite a few fair days early in the week, conditions are likely to be turning more unsettled and the week progresses. Temperatures are likely to fall to near normal and it will become breezier too. Do note however, that there is a 30% chance of high pressure dominating with conditions being much more settled.

*29/10/13......5/11/13*

 

The end of the month is probably going to be unsettled, wet and windy. There could be some heavy rain at times, especially in the north. Widespread, severe gales could occur, although again note low confidence. Signs of high pressure building towards the end of this forecast period with conditions become more settled.

*6/11/13......12/11/13*

 

Higher pressure may build through the country through this week. This will lead to frosty nights, but daytimes should be dry with good spells of sunshine. Little change is expected through the period.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20131001

 

And the seasonal outlook

 

Changeable November

Unsettled December

Issued: Tuesday 1st October 2013

Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*November*

 

November is a month which, at the present time, looks set to be dominated by high pressure during it's first half. The tendency will be for the high to be to the north of the country,with lower pressure to the south. A dry and frosty start, with the risk of mist and fog being widespread. In fog daytime temperatures will be cold, but feeling nearer normal where the sun comes through. Southern areas will always be at risk of rain, although the risk of rain increases as the month progresses. Sometime after the 10th may see the breakdown begin. It may be that later in the month that the rain turns more persistent from the south, and then all areas going into a more unsettled period. Be aware of the risk of sleet and possibly snow as the break occurs. It is likely that milder weather returns fairly quickly as the breakdown starts, with sleet and snow short lived.

*December*

There is much discrepancy between forecast models at this time. However, we currently lean into the idea of December being unsettled, with periods of rain and strong winds at times. There is evidence merging of the westerly flow across the Atlantic being stronger than normal, leading to an enhanced jet stream. This would lead to more precipitation than usual, perhaps 150 to 180% of normal rainfall. Temperatures would likely be around normal, and there is the risk of some snow at times, especially through Ireland and Scotland, as well as northern England.

Captain Bob & Simon Keeling

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20131001

 

 

 

 

Really sticking their neck out then!!!

Edited October 2, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think this 'Indian Summer ' spell will be quite robust particularly the further from far NW you are but I think 'most' of the countrry will join in. The block 'may' hold out until last 3rd of the month....no doubt we'll have AGW to blame for the 'unusual warmth' Med Climate shifted north etc. Me...well I've kept the BBQ on tap ready for some late garden family do's in anticipation of the lovely weather [my mrs thought I was mad ...but.....]

 

I remember October 1985 well, I loved that late warmth...great month.

 

BFTP

Edited October 2, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Dancerwithwings]

Weather onlines seasonal outlook which covered December  2012,

 

Seasonal outlook - September 30, 2012

 

November chill?

Here it looks as if pressure will be rising a large anticyclone setting over the UK to provide the whole country with a dry, chilly and fine spell of weather through to mid-month,

overnight frosts, fog and misty inland where skies clear.

 

December stays cool.

Colder conditions already established across the country during the latter stages will linger through the early part of December, the whole UK covered by a northerly flow

which will bring a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers, overnight frosts will be widespread.

Around mid-month pressure should begin to rise both to the east and west, the whole pattern becoming much more settled and colder as an anticyclone sits over the UK,

 

And what became;

 

November 2012

Cool but Widespread flooding

Temps' (CET) of 6.6°C was 0.6 degC below.

 

December 2012
Cold sunny start; mild and wet later

Temps'(CET) of 4.8°C was 0.1 degC above

 

Looking at last years forecast nothing much to worry about

Edited October 2, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[smithyweather]

Really getting sick of this crap. Just want some proper October weather now.

Its so depressing.

[Summer Sun]

Really getting sick of this crap. Just want some proper October weather now.Its so depressing.

 

Thats exactly how those of us wanting milder weather in March felt when Spring took ages to get going now 7 month down the line and its the other way round

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I agree, I remember how frustrating March and April was earlier this year for those yearning for spring warmth. It may be we just have to accept this high is going to be difficult to shift for next week or 2, but let's not write off anything beyond that. Things switch quickly for the UK. Who would have forecast the recent warmth back in the spring?

[March Blizzard]

I agree, I remember how frustrating March and April was earlier this year for those yearning for spring warmth. It may be we just have to accept this high is going to be difficult to shift for next week or 2, but let's not write off anything beyond that. Things switch quickly for the UK. Who would have forecast the recent warmth back in the spring?

Back in June (I think) I suggested the last 6 months of 2013 would all be above average. So far my gut instinct is holding up!

[Weather-history]

Really getting sick of this crap. Just want some proper October weather now.Its so depressing.

What is proper October weather though? Looks pretty decent after Friday.

[Weather-history]

Back in June (I think) I suggested the last 6 months of 2013 would all be above average. So far my gut instinct is holding up!

September 2013 above average? It was average in essence. Put it this this way, it wasn't clear cut above average nor below average. Edited October 3, 2013 by Weather-history

[smithyweather]

What is proper October weather though? Looks pretty decent after Friday.

NOT 16c at night!!!!!!!

[Richard2901]

We've now had 7 consecutive double digit minima I believe only the ghastly Autumn of 2006 has had such a long run this late on when there were 8 from 14th to 21st October - an outstandingly gloomy and horrific period of weather.

 

Last Autumn by contrast had no double digit minima after mid-September and was like a breath of fresh air. A very nice, pleasant sunny season with none of the southerly/south easterly gloom which has been so common in October since 1999.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Horrible, boring, static weather. TBH most of the days over the last couple of weeks have just been warm and overcast. Just mind numbingly boring. I wonder when we'll get a proper powerful autumn storm again (outside of November and December)?!

To those moaning about March- at least there was something going on. Anyone who honestly enjoys static grey skies and temps continually in the teens by day and night cannot call themselves weather enthusiasts IMO.

Edited October 3, 2013 by CreweCold

[Lettucing Gutted]

We've now had 7 consecutive double digit minima I believe only the ghastly Autumn of 2006 has had such a long run this late on when there were 8 from 14th to 21st October - an outstandingly gloomy and horrific period of weather.

 

Last Autumn by contrast had no double digit minima after mid-September and was like a breath of fresh air. A very nice, pleasant sunny season with none of the southerly/south easterly gloom which has been so common in October since 1999.

Indeed 1999 really did resume with gusto the step change warming with October that was dramatic from 1941 through 1972.  Not only have the top 3 warmest ever Octobers occurred in the 2000's 2001 and 2011 have been the first Octobers to not have any air frosts.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed 1999 really did resume with gusto the step change warming with October that was dramatic from 1941 through 1972. Not only have the top 3 warmest ever Octobers occurred in the 2000's 2001 and 2011 have been the first Octobers to not have any air frosts.

I think this October is different though. The jet stream is once again exhibiting some strange behaviour. Far from flat and zonal. We happen to be on the warmer side of the jet but other mid latitude locations are looking to get an early pasting of winter. It's symptomatic of how the jet has been for 5 or so years now.I don't think we'll have a record challenger of an October though anyway. I suspect fog and frost will become more common as we progress through the month. Edited October 3, 2013 by CreweCold

[laserguy]

Horrible, boring, static weather. TBH most of the days over the last couple of weeks have just been warm and overcast. Just mind numbingly boring. I wonder when we'll get a proper powerful autumn storm again (outside of November and December)?!To those moaning about March- at least there was something going on. Anyone who honestly enjoys static grey skies and temps continually in the teens by day and night cannot call themselves weather enthusiasts IMO.

 

This is fast becoming one truly hateful Autumn. And to think I actually looked forward to this...

[sundog]

Autumn?? Last nights low here was 15.2c. Have not seen a single digit temp since 19th sept. It just seems like near constant warmth now since early july (bar some cooler days during sept) and im getting rightly fed up with it. Humid dull mild nonsense.  Then we have certain people in the MOD thread with their little agendas,HP this Hp that blah ,blah blah. The same stuff now for how many wks??

[Chris K]

Well at least Saturday and Sunday look ok with sunny spells!

 

But Monday....

 

 

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Autumn?? Last nights low here was 15.2c. Have not seen a single digit temp since 19th sept. It just seems like near constant warmth now since early july (bar some cooler days during sept) and im getting rightly fed up with it. Humid dull mild nonsense.  Then we have certain people in the MOD thread with their little agendas,HP this Hp that blah ,blah blah. The same stuff now for how many wks??

 

I can imangine they are like this current weather in real life. Dull and Lifeless!!!!

Edited October 3, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Methuselah]

Autumn?? Last nights low here was 15.2c. Have not seen a single digit temp since 19th sept. It just seems like near constant warmth now since early july (bar some cooler days during sept) and im getting rightly fed up with it. Humid dull mild nonsense.  Then we have certain people in the MOD thread with their little agendas,HP this Hp that blah ,blah blah. The same stuff now for how many wks??

'Agendas' is a bit strong, isn't it? It's rather difficult to not see HP, just now?