Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[laserguy]

Lovely sunshine, some trees are showing leaf colour change now.

 

What a dreadful day - more like July than late September. Much more of this nonsense and those leaves will be turning green again....

[Summer Sun]

Southerly winds to persist into October!

 

 

Edited September 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

What a dreadful day - more like July than late September. Much more of this nonsense and those leaves will be turning green again....

 

I went to redcar yesterday it was glorious not bad in late September when you can go outside and not even need a jumper

 

Yesterdays weather reminded me of late September 2011 not as warm / hot but still very pleasant for the time of year

[simshady]

Warm, sunny, virtually no wind....don't like it at all. Hopefully things will change soon.

[Gaz1985]

Warm, sunny, virtually no wind....don't like it at all. Hopefully things will change soon.

 

Its bloody great, think the BBQ will be coming out later

[BornFromTheVoid]

It looks like we can rule out a classic cold autumn like 1919, 1952 and 1993.

 

As BFTP mentioned, end of October and November could bring more in the way of unsettled and perhaps stormy conditions

[simshady]

Its bloody great, think the BBQ will be coming out later

 Nah...can't beat the depths of winter.......and it'll soon be here!..this is boring weather!

Edited September 24, 2013 by simshady

[Jax]

As BFTP mentioned, end of October and November could bring more in the way of unsettled and perhaps stormy conditions

Noooo, stormy not good!

 

Only just got the fence fixed (again) and the Ariel is on its last legs I fear.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Its bloody great, think the BBQ will be coming out later

 

It will probably be the last BBQ you have until well into next year so make sure you fill your boots son. Unless you like to bbq in the rain of course. Don't forget to do it early as it will be dark in 2 hours, no fun in bbqing in the dark, cant see if your meat is still pink.

Edited September 24, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[laserguy]

It will probably be the last BBQ you have until well into next year so make sure you fill your boots son. Unless you like to bbq in the rain of course. Don't forget to do it early as it will be dark in 2 hours, no fun in bbqing in the dark, cant see if your meat is still pink.

 

Ah, a man after me own heart for sure! But for now, still way,way,too much like summer. Just evil - hope the change is swift and severe and as long-lasting as this damn summer.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Ah, a man after me own heart for sure! But for now, still way,way,too much like summer. Just evil - hope the change is swift and severe and as long-lasting as this damn summer.

 

Yeah man, July was nice so we don't need anymore of this nice stuff.

[Richard2901]

As expected we lost the sun today to be replaced with disgusting gloomy, drizzly foggy easterly murk. Min 11.3C, max 14.0C. The worst type of non-weather and what we have had to endure in abundance in autumn over the last 15 years particularly during the detestable Octobers of 1999, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2009 and 2011.

 

There are some nice colours starting to show the trees now and a continuation of this dross is the last thing I want to see. It's just awful and prolonged periods of this really have an adverse effect on autumn leaf colour  

 

 

[laserguy]

 

As expected we lost the sun today to be replaced with disgusting gloomy, drizzly foggy easterly murk.

 

An unpleasant day here. After a few hours this afternoon which really were redolant of high summer, it quickly became fully overcast and had an uncomfortable, 'dirty' feeling to it - which has persisted up to now. I'd normally prefer the overcast to sun but there's something sinister feeling about it, can't put my finger on it. Leaves are showing little sign of change and 'should' be more tinged with autumn hues than this. On Nov' 5 last year I recall the trees being totally bare, so the change really will have to be abrupt to match that.

[simshady]

An unpleasant day here. After a few hours this afternoon which really were redolant of high summer, it quickly became fully overcast and had an uncomfortable, 'dirty' feeling to it - which has persisted up to now. I'd normally prefer the overcast to sun but there's something sinister feeling about it, can't put my finger on it. Leaves are showing little sign of change and 'should' be more tinged with autumn hues than this. On Nov' 5 last year I recall the trees being totally bare, so the change really will have to be abrupt to match that.

 

 They're slowly starting to turn here, but still plenty of green left on them.

[Cheshire Freeze]

An unpleasant day here. After a few hours this afternoon which really were redolant of high summer, it quickly became fully overcast and had an uncomfortable, 'dirty' feeling to it - which has persisted up to now. I'd normally prefer the overcast to sun but there's something sinister feeling about it, can't put my finger on it. Leaves are showing little sign of change and 'should' be more tinged with autumn hues than this. On Nov' 5 last year I recall the trees being totally bare, so the change really will have to be abrupt to match that.

Yep, noticed the slower colour change myself. Probably a result of growth being put behind in March/April and warmth persisting into this month.

[itsnowjoke]

im hoping for some nice Autumn winds.

[laserguy]

im hoping for some nice Autumn winds.

 

Me too, a really good autumn blast would be most welcome - as opposed to the suffocating stagnation of now.

[Relativistic]

It looks like we can rule out a classic cold autumn like 1919, 1952 and 1993.

Damn.

[Jax]

Only wind I want here is mine

 

as for autumn, I am watching as I want to get some photos to work with over winter of the trees and colours.

[Relativistic]

Almost nothing has Autumnal colours here. Hopefully we'll get some much cooler weather and a gale or two to sort it out. As long as it doesn't end up like 2011 then I'm fine, the majority of leaves on the oak tree by my house were still green on Christmas day.

Edited September 24, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Summer Sun]

Virtually no leafs turning here yet all still green a combination of the late start and the extended warmth has helped keep trees in leaf longer this autumn

 

The last time we had warmth like this in September was back in 2011 and what followed was the mildest winter since 2006 / 07

Edited September 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

 The last time we had warmth like this in September was back in 2011 and what followed was the mildest winter since 2006 / 07

The last time I had spaghetti bolognese was two weeks back and what followed was the first lottery win since January.

[Yarmy]

Virtually no leafs turning here yet all still green a combination of the late start and the extended warmth has helped keep trees in leaf longer this autumn The last time we had warmth like this in September was back in 2011 and what followed was the mildest winter since 2006 / 07

And as one of our esteemed mods has pointed out,1978 had 25c days in the middle of October and November was mild. And the Winter was...

[damianslaw]

A number of trees are on the turn here - about average timing. We are a good month away still from peak autumn colour splendour.

 

In some years the autumn colours have lasted well into November thanks to little wind activity and mild evenings - 2011 being the last example, but most notably in 2005, 2006 and 2009, all quiet very mild autumns.

 

Always look forward to the first frosts of the season which help spur on leaf colour change very quickly. Last year we experienced our first air frost on the 22nd September. Could be a while yet this year looking at the charts.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Could you explain why you think things will turn out that way BFTP?

 

My forecast in August, based on analogues, suggested a very similar outcome to yours.

 

We seem to have this 'stagnation' that some speak of and are concerned about.  I'm not, I'm looking for this 'rut' type set up which continues the jet being split/meridional/southerly tracking.  I think we'll see a change when we get stronger gradient as we enter deeper into October.  Solar activity in shape of coronal holes [earth facing] may well help 'beef up' this period latter half of Oct meaning potentially notable LP activity.  However, I think the ongoing jetstream pattern will continue so I think we could get 'hit' by deep LPs IF they develop and not see any prolonged classic cyclogenesis.  Models seem to like the idea of 'warmth' over next 2+ weeks 

 

 

BFTP

Edited September 24, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST