Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[syed2878]

lets hope this what we got atm changes quickly. I don't mind this type of weather from march-september now i hope to c some proper autumn weather, well the leaves r on the change here lets hope the weather is too. Of course me wishing and hoping won't change anything it's the weather it will do what it will do. I hope we dont haf to put up with this during the winter.

[Weather-history]

Southerly winds to persist into October!  

I do like October warmth if there is some sun to go with it.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiRgMnj9CF8

[summer blizzard]

In terms of leaf colour we are probably about 40% of the way there. No leaf drop yet however.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Ah, a man after me own heart for sure! But for now, still way,way,too much like summer. Just evil - hope the change is swift and severe and as long-lasting as this damn summer.

Probably in another 50,000 years 

[Dancerwithwings]

It will probably be the last BBQ you have until well into next year so make sure you fill your boots son. Unless you like to bbq in the rain of course. Don't forget to do it early as it will be dark in 2 hours, no fun in bbqing in the dark, cant see if your meat is still pink.

My BBQ is well packed away They must be crazy anyway to have one in this grey muck, But i will say this you mentioned "no fun in bbqing in the dark"

I disagree! We will all be bbqing soon standing around a bonfire with baked potatoes wrapped in foil, Chestnuts (with salt and vinegar) and the kids with toffee apples

and hopefuly on a cold and frosty november night

 

[DOdo]

Autumn is very noticable across this side of the pond.Leaves on the trees have changed colour and some have shed their leaves already

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

My BBQ is well packed away They must be crazy anyway to have one in this grey muck, But i will say this you mentioned "no fun in bbqing in the dark"

I disagree! We will all be bbqing soon standing around a bonfire with baked potatoes wrapped in foil, Chestnuts (with salt and vinegar) and the kids with toffee apples

and hopefuly on a cold and frosty november night

 

 

I must admit you do make bbqing in the dark sound good.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Autumn is very noticable across this side of the pond.Leaves on the trees have changed colour and some have shed their leaves already

 

Where are you on that side of the pond?

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

We seem to have this 'stagnation' that some speak of and are concerned about.  I'm not, I'm looking for this 'rut' type set up which continues the jet being split/meridional/southerly tracking.  I think we'll see a change when we get stronger gradient as we enter deeper into October.  Solar activity in shape of coronal holes [earth facing] may well help 'beef up' this period latter half of Oct meaning potentially notable LP activity.  However, I think the ongoing jetstream pattern will continue so I think we could get 'hit' by deep LPs IF they develop and not see any prolonged classic cyclogenesis.  Models seem to like the idea of 'warmth' over next 2+ weeks 

 

 

BFTP

Any links to papers explaining how coronal hole-shape is thought to influence the UK's weather, Fred?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Any links to papers explaining how coronal hole-shape is thought to influence the UK's weather, Fred?

No, just that we beginning to know and possibly accept that there is a number of ways that the sun affects the climate/weather patterns on Earth. I think the sunspots have played major part in changing the positioning and behaviour of the jetstream along with other cycles and these other disturbances affect and tweak the pattern as they occur. I can't prove any of this but read and look at thoughts of other alternative forecasters and methods/theories and play along to see if a continued correlation occurs.

I am at the point though, as you can see, that solar cycles very much influence the jetstream and thus the likelihood of warmer/colder/drier/wetter patterns.

They may or may not but have a feeling that if solar Flares etc can knock out communications etc so why not 'tweak' atmospheric conditions? I choose the jetstream as a starting point to look at as RJS for example chooses timelines in his theory. Nothing more than that I'm afraid.

BFTP

Edited September 25, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[shedhead]

No, just that we beginning to know and possibly accept that there is a number of ways that the sun affects the climate/weather patterns on Earth. I think the sunspots have played major part in changing the positioning and behaviour of the jetstream along with other cycles and these other disturbances affect and tweak the pattern as they occur. I can't prove any of this but read and look at thoughts of other alternative forecasters and methods/theories and play along to see if a continued correlation occurs.I am at the point though, as you can see, that solar cycles very much influence the jetstream and thus the likelihood of warmer/colder/drier/wetter patterns.They may or may not but have a feeling that if solar Flares etc can knock out communications etc so why not 'tweak' atmospheric conditions? I choose the jetstream as a starting point to look at as RJS for example chooses timelines in his theory. Nothing more than that I'm afraid.BFTP

So Corbyn might actually be onto something?

[Polar Maritime]

So Corbyn might actually be onto something?

 

Corbyn is on everything... so he's never wrong 

 

Anyway here's link from the other thread..

 

Studies by several scientists show low solar activity can actually be linked to harsh winter in the United States and northern Europe.

Studies find temperature and pressure patterns associated with low solar activity resemble the negative phases of NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation which can bring brutal cold air from northern Canada into the United States.

A survey done by NASA in 2001 found that during the 17 ^th century also known as the “ Maunder Minimum†brutal cold air was found from the Northeastern USA into Europe.

Other research finds a weaker polar vortex can be found displaced from pushed further south near the United States bordering bringing cold air into the eastern United States and Europe.

Read more: http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/historic-low-sun-activity-to-impact-winter-temperatures#ixzz2fuU6ihgf

Edited September 25, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So Corbyn might actually be onto something?

 

I think its quite possible.  But I think that in general about those that research solar and planetary magnetic field influences eg RJS, Landscheidt, Penn etc as my signature shows my belief in the solar cycle effect.

 

BFTP 

Edited September 25, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

I think its quite possible.  But I think that in general about those that research solar and planetary magnetic field influences eg RJS, Landscheidt etc 

 

BFTP 

Well, in all honesty Fred, I remain highly sceptical...If Piers's resultant LRFs were a tad more accurate, I would undoubtedly take more notice...

 

On the subject of magnetic fields, air - outside of electrical storms - has no discernible electromagnetic field with which any extraterrestrial fields might interact? Even aurorae are only caused by interactions between similarly-charged ions accelerated by Earth's magnetic field...

 

I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for frothcoming papers, however. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well, in all honesty Fred, I remain highly sceptical...If Piers's resultant LRFs were a tad more accurate, I would undoubtedly take more notice...

 

On the subject of magnetic fields, air - outside of electrical storms - has no discernible electromagnetic field with which any extraterrestrial fields might interact? Even aurorae are only caused by interactions between similarly-charged ions accelerated by Earth's magnetic field...

 

I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for frothcoming papers, however. 

 

Like I was hinting at, Piers is far from the main reason and a small part of the jigsaw.  But recent studies of the affect on the jetstream, polar vortex etc...the documented LIA period and the visible change we have seen in the jetstream tracking south and being meridional are real changes.

We are no doubt though experiencing different climes

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

October 08 anyone ?

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I will have control please.

 

 

[Methuselah]

Like I was hinting at, Piers is far from the main reason and a small part of the jigsaw.  But recent studies of the affect on the jetstream, polar vortex etc...the documented LIA period and the visible change we have seen in the jetstream tracking south and being meridional are real changes.

We are no doubt though experiencing different climes

 

BFTP

I'm more than happy to accept a link between low Solar activity and changes to the PFJ, Fred. It's just the shapes of Solar surface-features that tweak my scepticism... 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes they have been discribed as looking like a sousage..;-)

[DOdo]

Where are you on that side of the pond?

 

BFTP

Lucan Co Dublin

[Yarmy]

Re: Autumn Leaf Colour. It's the length of the day that determines when the leaves start turning, not the temperature. However, the temperature and amount of cloud do determine how vivid the display becomes. Generally, we want warm sunny days and cool nights, but not cool enough for frost.

 

http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html

 

"Because the starting time of the whole process is dependent on night length, fall colors appear at about the same time each year in a given location, whether temperatures are cooler or warmer than normal."

Edited September 25, 2013 by Yarmy

[Dancerwithwings]

October 08 anyone ?

 

 

 

 

In the afternoon it turned white here, Wet snow ! but did settle though and it wasn't expected which made it even better and a good covering we had at that

It then froze overnight   It was the earliest snow i remember prior to winter

Edited September 25, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[AderynCoch]

Dullsville. The sun was out this morning but it promptly went in to be replaced by the worst kind of overcast gloom - dull but not quite murky enough to be atmospheric (like mist and fog). I'm surprised these clouds aren't producing rain to be honest.

 

I'm missing Provence already.

[laserguy]

Dullsville. The sun was out this morning but it promptly went in to be replaced by the worst kind of overcast gloom - dull but not quite murky enough to be atmospheric (like mist and fog). I'm surprised these clouds aren't producing rain to be honest.

 

I'm missing Provence already.

 

I'm glad to see the back of summer and the retreat of the sun, but even I agree that the kind of overcast of today and yesterday is pretty grim, compounded by the total lack of wind and 'sludgy' atmosphere. Nothing like the slate-grey sky where everything is starkly outlined against it that I expect and look forward to at this time of year. We need a storm now - right now!

[AderynCoch]

You think it's pretty grim? Who are you and why have you hacked into laserguy's account?