Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Weather-history]

Would be nice to see these colours this autumn

[Summer Sun]

Terry Scholey's mid October to mid November forecast

 

Looks like remaining mild into November but possibly turning colder as we move to mid month

 

Full detailed forecast here

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

leaves on trees are still mostly green around here it won't be untill mid to late november when most trees are bare, trees are only usually bare for about 4 months of the year in most years here

[phil nw.]

Even in a unsettled Atlantic setup a day like today shows how lovely Autumn can be.Lower sun illuminating the golds,reds,yellows and greens of the changing colours.

[Lettucing Gutted]

It doesn't even feel like autumn anymore.  It feels more like a muggy cloudy southwesterly or muggy cloudy easterly in June.

Edited October 19, 2013 by Craig Evans

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

 

One thing noticeable though, all we need is a trigger to fire the bullet, an amplified pattern leaving the US seabed in the correct position (ie - the 'Murr Western Greenland WAA' pattern), will do the trick, its just getting that trigger that's the problem, the cold pooling is going to be extensive and growing as the winter goes on.

 

[reef]

Not a single ground frost yet here this Autumn, The lowest minima so far is 6.4C.

 

The latest in the Autumn we've ever dropped to below 5C is the 5th November (2001 and 2005). A couple of weeks off yet but not out of the question that its later than that this year.

Edited October 21, 2013 by reef

[Relativistic]

Lowest here is 6.2C on the 15th of September. Stupid.

Edited October 21, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Lowest I've recorded here is 5.4c, 7:08am 16th October.

 

Gonna be waiting until Late November for a ground frost at this rate 

[feb1991blizzard]

Almost giving up on any potent cold this autumn now and  I think I want that deep low to materialise, lets have some deep storms and interesting weather.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Almost giving up on any potent cold this autumn now and  I think I want that deep low to materialize, lets have some deep storms and interesting weather.

Autumn is really turning into the pits for cold weather.  Our last raging cold autumn was 20 yeas ago.  The last time a very mild/hot summer led to even a remotely cool autumn was 1976.  1976 was also the last time a hot summer led to both a cool autumn and a cold winter.

[smithyweather]

It doesn't even feel like autumn anymore.  It feels more like a muggy cloudy southwesterly or muggy cloudy easterly in June.

I know it is 18c outside, its over the top.

 

 

I had -0c min in 12th October. 

Edited October 22, 2013 by smithyweather

[Summer Sun]

5.7c on the 15th of October is the lowest temp so far

 

Its a nice & mild 16.8c this afternoon in Darlo with some sunshine felt really pleasant outside

[Don]

Well, it looks like I'm not going to see a frost this October.  Even October 2011 gave a grass frost!  I agree this October has been awful, up there with 2001.  I wouldn't have minded if it had been warm and dry like October 1995, that was a very pleasant month, but warm and wet, no thanks!

[Weather-history]

Well, it looks like I'm not going to see a frost this October. Even October 2011 gave a grass frost! I agree this October has been awful, up there with 2001. I wouldn't have minded if it had been warm and dry like October 1995, that was a very pleasant month, but warm and wet, no thanks!

Yes I would have preferred a very mild, dry October than a wet one.Here are forecasts from 4 of the top 5 warmest Octobers for CETOctober 2001http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqgJHF6qI_9tjCnrRS936PWOctober 2005http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2aqJ5mEi2-iwIMvb345Pr_jKOctober 2006http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2areEbTfFFRChABMTQQO-UWXOctober 1995http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2ar1Iw18kAseRKIHWHAtY9sb Edited October 23, 2013 by Weather-history

[BornFromTheVoid]

3rd grass frost of the Autumn looks possible tonight, forecast for minima of 1C to 4C.

Currently 11.7C under the cloudy skies, but should drop quickly as they clear and the breeze dies off.

[sundog]

Coldest temp ive recorded so far this Autumn was 4.4c on Oct 10th.

[smithyweather]

6c now. Not really that low.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Only dropped to 8C last night, Met Eireann certainly got that one wrong. Seems that front has moved north sooner than expected. Already got 2mm of rain this morning, despite it not forecast to start until around noon!

[Relativistic]

Pretty damn windy down here, or it was from 6-8 anyway. Fence panels blown over, branches all over the place, gates rattling and some television antennae are no longer standing. Could have been a lot worse, I haven't seen a whole tree over and people seem to be getting on with their lives without too much trouble.

Edited October 28, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts have nothing to suggest any major pattern change for the two weeks or so that they are valid for. Remaining unsettled with detail on various lows from the synoptic outputs. Temperatures in general not as high as over the past few weeks, nearer average and a shade below at times. 

[smithyweather]

Definitely been cooling down since the start of the month. 

 

Max temp does not exceed 10c this week which is actually a bit below average.

 

Today, tomorrow, Thursday are forecast as 9 highs.

Edited October 28, 2013 by smithyweather

[BornFromTheVoid]

Coldest max of the Autumn so far here, 12.1C. Just 7 maxima below 15C so far this month

[smithyweather]

Forecast high of 7c on Saturday. That is the coldest high of the season yet. To be honest, thats pretty good as thats 4c below average. 

Edited October 29, 2013 by smithyweather

[cheese]

We're getting closer and closer to the first widespread air frost.. hopefully.