Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Weather-history]

Its too early to say that yet.

Yes, it is too early to call this one. When you think about only July and August were appreciably above the 1961-90 average, January to. June were all below their 1961-90 averages and September was only a smidgen above it.

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyone going to comment on the GFS 6z FI, either here or in the model thread?

[summer blizzard]

Looks a very unsettled pattern to me even if not cool.

[feb1991blizzard]

Heights building to the North again, obviously nothing potent from a straight Easterly at this time of year but if we could get to late October with this recurring theme then interesting times ahead.

 

 

[AWD]

I don't often look at the CFS model as it isn't for me, but with it currently bring very quiet at work and me approaching the depths of bordem, I had a quick scan through and what caught my eye is the strength of anomaly variance on November's output;

Regardless of whether it is right or wrong, it's not often you see a model throw up such strong anomaly variance output like that.

[Captain Shortwave]

The GEM shows the mother of all blowtorches today

 

It's hard to get the 18C isotherm to the north of Scotland in mid-summer, let alone late October!!!!

Just for fun as this is blatantly going to be way off the mark but still, that is quite something for a model output.

[Relativistic]

I really hope it doesn't come off, I want some frostier weather to finish the month. To get a good frosty spell early in the season would be lovely.

[Relativistic]

In the nearer future it looks as if we may have a battle between the two low pressure systems, and I'm hoping the one over Scandinavia can win out to send us some cool stuff (help the CET recover, and of course, the colder the better!). Unfortunately for me it seems as if this won't be the case and that the Atlantic will just about win out.

Edited October 12, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Summer Sun]

After a cooler spell over the past few days the weather will be turning milder again towards the end of the week

 

From the beebs week ahead forecast

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

SS

Interesting to see such a flat defined line of the boundary....normally one would see a spike going well north 

 

BFTP

Edited October 13, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[feb1991blizzard]

Check out the end of November on the CFS 18z sat 12th (latest run), Bitter and cyclonic, a winning combination, unfortunately an even better combination is when the third test is met which it isn't yet, and that is within double figure hours on all three models!

[Dancerwithwings]

This reminds me of 1987 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=8&mode=0&carte=0

 

Edited October 14, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[feb1991blizzard]

I quite like this.

 

 

This reminds me of 1987

 

 

 

I take it you talking October and not January.

[Dancerwithwings]

The Great Storm of 1987..... That occurred on the night of 15–16 October

[feb1991blizzard]

The Great Storm of 1987..... That occurred on the night of 15–16 October

 

Yes, I remember it well, anyway, Steve in the model thread is right, 264 would be a direct hit.

[itsnowjoke]

i just want it to get colder as my wardrobe is in a mess with rotating thinner then thicker clothes.

cant make my mind up what to wear.

[feb1991blizzard]

i just want it to get colder as my wardrobe is in a mess with rotating thinner then thicker clothes.cant make my mind up what to wear.

 

I wear thinner all year around, even in 2010 dec, of course I wear a coat but never change my other clothes.

[itsnowjoke]

I wear thinner all year around, even in 2010 dec, of course I wear a coat but never change my other clothes.

i think i will start layering.

[itsnowjoke]

just me on here lol

[Relativistic]

just me on here lol

Because Autumn is being REALLY boring. I am enjoying this cooler weather but it's about to turn hurrendously mild yet again. I have seen no frosts, no real stormy weather and barely any trees wearing their Autumnal colours. Hitherto it's been an incredibly dull season.

[smithyweather]

Would be nice to see some snow at the end of the month to cheer us all up. While it has improved the mild weather is still here. I mean its gonna be 15c on Thursday. I mean COME ON! Go away

9c tomorrow though.

Edited October 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[Summer Sun]

Would be nice to see some snow at the end of the month to cheer us all up. While it has improved the mild weather is still here. I mean its gonna be 15c on Thursday. I mean COME ON! Go away9c tomorrow though.

 

No cold in sight for anywhere in the UK just have some patience

 

http://www.worldweatheronline.com/Limavady-15day-weather-chart/Limavady/GB.aspx

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM is a shocker. PV Greenland.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is a shocker. PV Greenland.

 

Similar to GFS then its bound to move at some point

[feb1991blizzard]

Similar to GFS then its bound to move at some point

 

Yes of course Gavin its bound to move at some point, never in the history if you go through every reanalysis year from 1888 or whatever it is, has there been a whole winter without a PV in Greenland, but I think as a cold fan, we just have to grab what we can when we can so in that regard, I somewhat do hang on every run, although teleconnections may point towards cold in the future, I would rather take anything I can get now and have bad teleconnective signals for Feb and Jan as they are more prone to change the further out, unlike some members its not because I have a preference of before xmas or have a phobia of higher sun strength late feb, a really potent cold spell will do for me whenever, but the nearer it is projected to happen to T0, the more chance of verifying.