Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.

[Weather-history]

I was reading about reports of Octobers just over 100 years ago and it was interesting the talk about lack of frost, high minima etc.

Edited October 29, 2013 by Weather-history

[Relativistic]

I was reading about reports of Octobers just over 100 years ago and it was interesting the talk about lack of frost, high minima etc.

That's interesting, I wonder if it's part of a cycle. Edited October 30, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Summer Sun]

Away from the mild south west next Monday has potential for some wide spread frosts

 

 

The south west doesn't have much chance of frost's with temps ranging from 11c to 14c

[Summer Sun]

This time last year some parts of the UK were getting there first snowfall of the season (we did as well in Darlo) what a difference a year makes

[smithyweather]

The met office have me down for a high of 6c on Saturday. Surely thats a bit far fetched? 

[John Badrick]

This time last year some parts of the UK were getting there first snowfall of the season (we did as well in Darlo) what a difference a year makes

Yes but then it turned mild for Christmas, best we have the mild now and then it turn colder a bit later, just like 2009 and 2010 both very mild autumns and awesome winters, don't care if it doesn't snow in October or even November wintry weather is best in winter

[smithyweather]

Now come on now it has to snow in November. Think we've been waiting long enough.

[Summer Sun]

Last night was the coldest of Autumn so far getting down to 3.4c just high enough to avoid a frost

[Chess01]

Why oh why are people moaning there's no snow . It's still autumn god dam we have the whole of winter for snow just because there's nothing cold yet doesn't mean there won't be any for a whole 3 months. Wait a few more weeks then you warrant the right to moan

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Last night was the coldest of Autumn so far getting down to 3.4c just high enough to avoid a frost

Where you live?  I had loads of frost and car was iced upBFTP

Edited October 30, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[cheese]

Fell to 3.1C this morning - doubt there was frost though - far too breezy. Never really fell below 9km/h.

Edited October 30, 2013 by cheese

[Frank Trough]

Where you live?  I had loads of frost and car was iced upBFTP

 

that was your fridge/freezer mate. The car is the thing outside on the drive.

[Summer Sun]

Where you live?  I had loads of frost and car was iced upBFTP

 

Darlington its under my avatar

 

Apparently there was a frost here however when I got up just after 8 all the cars were clear but we get the sunshine all day around here so it soon melts still this time of year

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Darlington its under my avatar

 

Apparently there was a frost here however when I got up just after 8 all the cars were clear but we get the sunshine all day around here so it soon melts still this time of year

Sorry it should have read......where?  where you live?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

that was your fridge/freezer mate. The car is the thing outside on the drive.

So you were in Redhill were you?  Do you know Bournemouth is in Dorset ..... mate

 

 

BFTP

[Great Plum]

Living in Reigate, I can guarantee the bftp is telling the truth re ice scraping yesterday! Nothing like it at all today of course!

[smithyweather]

My forecast for Saturday!!! 

 

 

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Thats actually really cold for this time of the year is it not? 

[Summer Sun]

Autumn is flying by tomorrow marks the final 4 weeks of Autumn 2013 it hardly seems 5 minutes since we entered Autumn

[Zenarcher]

My last update for Autumn 2013

 

November

 

Rainfall - Average or above average in general but the far North of Scotland may get away with slightly less than average.

 

Temperature - Using both Climate Simulator and CFS data they agree on temperatures staying above average or at times close to average.

 

Pressure Patterns - Low pressure mainly situated over Iceland and high pressure over Europe and at times over the UK. With the UK being sandwiched between the two it explains the average or above average temperatures and rainfall mostly above average.

 

Quick look at the start of Winter December and January - Please note this isn't my winter 2013/2014 forecast it will be put together at the end of November.

 

December - Lower than average temperatures and rainfall going by the CFS. Climate Simulator doesn't exactly agree it goes for more average temperatures but does agree on some short cold spells making temperatures drop just slightly below average.

 

January - Below average rainfall for the North but above for the South. Average temps in the South but below average in the North says the CFS. Climate Simulator which I've been using for over a year now and yet to be wrong goes for average temperatures in the first half of January with short cold spells but the second half of January turns much colder about 1.5c nearly 2c below normal. It will be interesting to see if it changes it mind when running it again with more data at the end of the month for the winter forecast.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Weather for the week ahead with Matt Taylor - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2826193

Edited November 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

Heard more thunder this autumn than during some recent summers.

[Weather-history]

Any thoughts how this autumn's CET will turn out? November doesn't look quite the mild fest that some thought was going to turn out.

[reef]

It looks like the checkerboard pattern of mild/cool Autumns since 2007 looks set to continue, though a cold end to November could see us equal the 1981-2010 mean. A November CET of 5.7C would do it.

 

We're still certainly overdue a cold Autumn though.

[reef]

Has anyone else had an exceptionally sunnier than average first half of November?

 

The 1981-2010 average for the whole month here is 68 hours and we've managed that in the first 15 days alone. After today we're now on 71.3hrs.

 

The sunniest on record here is 114hrs in 2006 and if this cold spell next week is very sunny it could well be under threat. October only managed 103 hours so it could well be a sunnier month that that too.

[Richard2901]

November has been exceptionally sunny here as well. I'm up to 71.9 hours after today which is practically the whole monthly average already.

Will certainly beat October's dismal total of 77.7 hours. There have been a number of sunny November's recently:

2006: 96.6 hours

2008: 100.5 hours

2012: 97.8 hours

Plus 2005 will have had over 90 hours but I didn't have my recorder then. This month is on track to beat all of those provided we don't get any of the nasty unwelcome NE'lys that were showing in some model output yesterday.