Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[Milhouse]

GFS has shown more indication of a breakdown because it goes out further then the ECM. Run the ECM on 6 more days then i'm sure it would show a breakdown of sorts. Anyway any talk of a breakdown is pure speculation. ECM hinted at one a few days ago but has now backed away from that idea. Just shows you cant predict anything that far out.

[Dan the Man]

Epic Ecm! would that little shortwave of the west of Ireland produce instability/thunderstorms over Ireland?

 

 

I'm looking down at those upper temps in Spain and Morocco. Crikey!

What sort of temp are they looking at there?

[draztik]

Referring more to the end of their runs. Obviously ecm stops at 240, but by that stage gsf has the low over the UK, with cooler conditions thereafter. The ecm likely continues with high pressure after t240. I always add that these models are in FI, but gfs has been consistent of a breakdown for days now, and while the ensembles are not as strong as yesterday - indications are still showing some signs of a breakdown. I do not ignore the ecm, but the evidence just isn't there (at this stage), but may change.

Edited July 16, 2013 by draztik

[michail]

I'm looking down at those upper temps in Spain and Morocco. Crikey!

What sort of temp are they looking at there?

 

i'm guessing mid 40's inland?

[Gustywind]

The +18 uppers only clip the south west at t240, you need them covering a greater portion of southern England to put the uk record under threat ( on basis record most likely to be broken in highly populated area).

Think on the t240 chart we'd be looking at low 30s, possibly up to 35c in south east. The next chart would be the potential record challenger if the +18 line extends further and it's clear and sunny.

[Captain Shortwave]

Referring more to the end of their runs. Obviously ecm stops at 240, but by that stage gsf has the low over the UK, with cooler conditions thereafter. The ecm likely continues with high pressure after t240. I always add that these models are in FI, but gfs has been consistent of a breakdown for days now, and while the ensembles are not as strong as yesterday - indications are still showing some of breakdown. I do not ignore the ecm, but the evidence just isn't there (at this stage), but may change.

But the breakdown is at the same timeframe. You were arguing a breakdown around the 23/24th a few days back. Now we have this from the GFS ens

 

No breakdown

ECM

 

This mornings ECM ens

 

The breakdown is consistently shown on the GFS at 10 days time and not getting any closer.

If this continues until October, the north sea might be suitable for swimming in 

Edited July 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[draztik]

The ones who don't like heat are becoming desperate now so they'll look for anything even in deepest FI just like me I suppose when I look for high pressure in FI though I haven't had that problem this summer so far 

i really don't mind the heat at all. I rather enjoy it but my garden needs rain! This heat will be over soon enough and you can once more look for HP in FI! Heaven knows what you'll all do when the inevitable low surfaces.

[Evening thunder]

Correct we could be threatening the UK record as well +20 uppers could and a stress  could threaten to breach the 40c mark in some isolated spots like the major cities in the south

 

We got 38.5°C (101.3 °F) with the uppers on the below chart so one can only imagine what +20c uppers would bring

 

 

I reckon we would need uppers in the low-mid 20C to challende 40C, the UK record actually came on the 10th with 20-22C uppers in the south:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00220030810.gif

On the 6th they were actually slightly higher in the south (22C line over us) but the surface max temps were slightly lower: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00220030806.gif

 

July 2006 reached 18C uppers I believe, so getting there at the end of the ECM run though this is hypothetical at that range of course.

Edited July 16, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Milhouse]

When i see charts like this from 8 days ago it shows how much the heat has been extended.

 

 

 

In reality

 

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

i'm guessing mid 40's inland?

Speaking to someone from Tunisia last week, they had a day at 46.8C

[Frosty.]

Jeez the Ecm 12z is INSANE   if we think it's hot now, the ecm draws even hotter continental air north across the uk next week, it's incredible how this current heatwave is upgrading in longevity and intensity, we could be looking at mid 90's F next week across large parts of the uk, looking at these thicknesses with the 564 dam line into the uk we look to be heading into classic heatwave territory here and there is also an increasing risk of thunderstorms being triggered by the increasing heat & humidity, i'm gobsmacked by this ecm run tonight, it's even better than the 00z and 12z last night and it looks like we are going to be in the vice like grip of this heatwave for another 10 days at least and beyond, there is no realistic end in sight and the north of the uk is going to join in the scorcher later this week...INCREDIBLE. i'm on cloud 9 with these charts.  

Edited July 16, 2013 by Frosty039

[draztik]

But the breakdown is at the same timeframe. You were arguing a breakdown around the 23/24th a few days back. This mornings ECM ensThe breakdown is consistently shown on the GFS at 10 days time and not getting any closer.

If this continues until October, the north sea might be suitable for swimming in 

 

Accurate, in terms of overall temp... but rainfall? Thats a different story.

Edited July 16, 2013 by draztik

[Bristawl Si]

And i've just taken a trip in my time machine......it's the first week of August......UK weather and heatwave...

as you were!

Edited July 16, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Evening thunder]

 

Accurate, in terms of overall temp... but rainfall? Thats a different story.

 

That rainfall is likely to be due to isolated convective showers/storms due to the heat, or perhaps more scattered daytime storms or outbreaks of thunderstorms moving across from the continent on some ensembles, but still plenty of very warm/hot and sunny weather around - not really a proper breakdown to me at least.

Edited July 16, 2013 by Stormmad26

[NeilN]

Daft question, when was the last time we had a cold winter, cool spring and a very hot summer?

[Geordiesnow]

I still wonder how much low cloud could come into play, it seems we may get an ESE'ly flow but may turn NE'ly also for a while so I would not be surprised if low cloud turns out to be pretty extensive especially from Sunday onwards, still a little early to pin point the detail but NE Scotland and NE England looks the most likely to get most of the low cloud. 

 

Both the GFS and ECM suggesting upper air temps up to 15C, if this happens and we get some decent amount of sunshine then temps may approch the mid 30's in some areas in the South West and maybe Wales also. Because the air is so warm, even Eastern areas could see temps in the low 20's despite winds from the North Sea but most likely with more cloud cover. 

 

I want too see more trends of the high edging Eastwards before I get carried away about any potential warmth from the continent but all in all, another stunning set of runs for summer lovers. 

[J10]

The latest upper charts are out from NOAA, and they indicate High Pressure centred over Northern UK for the 6-10 day period but with High Pressure over all of the UK with a SE flow for southern areas perhaps going along with the chance of some higher temps.

 

A the 8-14 day period indications of the High Pressure moving slightly further north increasing the possibility of a breakdown from the SW but a slow one, and quite possibly the op models run are being slightly progressive today. If the NOAA charts are correct, a thundery breakdown would be most likely and quite possibly preceded by even higher temps.

 

 

 

As for tonight's ECM, very much going for very high temps into next week, but a lot can change before then.

Edited July 16, 2013 by Jackone

[nick sussex]

For heat junkies out there the key really is some low pressure development to the west of Iberia which could help pull hotter air further north, allied to the high edging east and orientating more nw/se. This really is the ideal set up with a se flow developing.

The ECM ensemble mean does support some troughing to the sw at 144hrs but still the orientation after that is still not sure this far out, quite a lot in the UK's favour in terms of getting some higher temps, a lengthy dry spell allied to an increase in ground temps, the longer the current heat and dryness last the better chance of making that leap to those mid 30's however I'd say its still odds against any records being broken.

[Jimmy0127]

For heat junkies out there the key really is some low pressure development to the west of Iberia which could help pull hotter air further north, allied to the high edging east and orientating more nw/se. This really is the ideal set up with a se flow developing.The ECM ensemble mean does support some troughing to the sw at 144hrs but still the orientation after that is still not sure this far out, quite a lot in the UK's favour in terms of getting some higher temps, a lengthy dry spell allied to an increase in ground temps, the longer the current heat and dryness last the better chance of making that leap to those mid 30's however I'd say its still odds against any records being broken.

 

Could be extraordinary weather for you down there if the current output comes close to verifying! Pyrenees and 20+ uppers.

[Sky Full]

I can't post any thumbnails but the jetstream forecast for July 25 seems to indicate a strong blast of Iberian or even Saharan air straight towards the UK - would this bring record temps?

[nick sussex]

Could be extraordinary weather for you down there if the current output comes close to verifying! Pyrenees and 20+ uppers.

The hottest I've enjoyed or suffered as the case was is 40c, some localized reports of 44c at the end of August 2010. So a month earlier could be interesting given the longer days.Much depends on what happens with any low pressure developing near Iberia. Certainly if theres a Spanish plume it will hit here first so I can give you all a heads up as to what to expect.

[shedhead]

ECM in particular continues to hint at possible significant heat next week, but that is still a long way off and plenty of things need to fall perfectly into place for us to tap the really hot air. Frankly I can't see why so many people crave temps in excess of 30c, in fact 25c is perfectly acceptable to me, especially when working. 35 even 40c is easily bareable in places where dewpoints are low, but once we start pumping up air capeable of supporting mid 30's across UK it inevitably becomes much more humid and consequently far more unpleasant imo... but to each his own I guess.  Looking at the current outputs I suggest some may need to be careful what they wish for.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

ECM in particular continues to hint at possible significant heat next week, but that is still a long way off and plenty of things need to fall perfectly into place for us to tap the really hot air. Frankly I can't see why so many people crave temps in excess of 30c, in fact 25c is perfectly acceptable to me, especially when working. 35 even 40c is easily bareable in places where dewpoints are low, but once we start pumping up air capeable of supporting mid 30's across UK it inevitably becomes much more humid and consequently far more unpleasant imo... but to each his own I guess.  Looking at the current outputs I suggest some may need to be careful what they wish for.

Just imagine the power of some storms that could be triggered off though because of temps of possibly say 36c, I will definitely be chasing those if they happen, issues could be some severe flooding from potential microbursts and supercells etc. Loads and loads of lightning will probably occur too in such beefy storms. 

Personally I would love to capture some of the POTENTIAL action and it would be remarkable in my eyes. Although people will have to be very careful.

Edited July 16, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[cheese]

ECM in particular continues to hint at possible significant heat next week, but that is still a long way off and plenty of things need to fall perfectly into place for us to tap the really hot air. Frankly I can't see why so many people crave temps in excess of 30c, in fact 25c is perfectly acceptable to me, especially when working. 35 even 40c is easily bareable in places where dewpoints are low, but once we start pumping up air capeable of supporting mid 30's across UK it inevitably becomes much more humid and consequently far more unpleasant imo... but to each his own I guess.  Looking at the current outputs I suggest some may need to be careful what they wish for.

As far as I remember, July 2006 was characterised by low dew points in relation to the actual temperatures. It may be rather muggy at temperatures between 26-28C in the UK, but once temperatures exceed 30C, it's unusual for it be very humid, especially if the source is dry continental, as it usually is when such temperatures are breached.

 

As for be careful what you wish for - the weather will do what it wants regardless of what we want, and even if it may be unpleasant, it cannot be denied that it would be very unusual and interesting to record such a hot month, like December 2010, which no doubt some people became sick of eventually, and I would be excited to see 40C be breached in the UK, just once in my lifetime, and 40C is very rarely accompanied by high humidity away from Arabian Peninsula coastlines  and northern India.

Edited July 16, 2013 by cheese

[Man With Beard]

Get back from an evening out and not surprisingly the ECM has got everyone talking.

It has to be said, if 40C is ever going to be reached in the UK, it's going to need a cut-off stationary low of Biscay with a hot France in the final week of July after a long period of hot weather... Good grief, the ECM isn't far from this scenario tonight!