Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS whilst bringing the heat, still wants to offer the chance of some heavy showers Saturday, given the heat they could be quite nasty.

Also the 32C predicted doesn't seem too unreasonable, for example the Local forecast for East Anglia has 29C predicted for Saturday so could easily be higher in London and favoured South Eastern areas

Edited July 10, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Milhouse]

Cooler air temporarily makes its way into Scotland and northern England on Tuesday before high pressure builds again.

 

[Milhouse]

96-144h on the UKMO 12z shows generally a north/south split with low pressure quite close to the north of Scotland meaning cooler westerlies and unsettled at times for the northern half of the UK. For the southern half its a continuation of the weekends fine spell with a lot of dry weather and temperatures likely to peak around 27c in the south.

High pressure firmly in charge in FI

 

[Scorcher]

A pretty good run from the GFS if you're looking for a continuation of the settled conditions- the south of England never really loses the very warm conditions with temperatures remaining above average throughout. Unfortunately it does look cool for Scotland but most of England and Wales would see slightly above average maximum temps if this run came off for most of next week and very little threat of rain. In FI the high gradually moves over us and we end up with a similar setup to what we've had over the last few days.

[Frosty.]

A  better ukmo 12z with the hot and sunny weather continuing across more southern areas well into next week and most of the uk looks fine and warm tomorrow & fri/sat/sun, very warm or hot across the south once again, becoming a bit more unsettled and cooler across scotland, especially by early next week.

[mushymanrob]

interestingly, what looked at first like a major cool down from sunday onwards appears to be being put back and never really reaching the far southeast... this appears to be a cooler blip for some before pressure tries to re-build. the gfs still expects some very hot weather into fi... lets just see if the teleconnections support it...

 

gotta say, theres good reason for optimism for sun/heat lovers.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

interestingly, what looked at first like a major cool down from sunday onwards appears to be being put back and never really reaching the far southeast... this appears to be a cooler blip for some before pressure tries to re-build. the gfs still expects some very hot weather into fi... lets just see if the teleconnections support it... gotta say, theres good reason for optimism for sun/heat lovers.

Yes I agree , although I always thought this cooler period would become less and less of a feature , often we find models , especially the gfs over-react to a new signal , then as the time gets closer it waters down somewhat , it's brilliant to have a summer for the first time in 6-7 years , with a good signal for a continuation of the summer weather . Lets just hope come November it transfers to Greenland and sits there all winter long giving long periods of heavy disruptive snow!(sorry couldnt resist !)

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS ens, wow the signal is even stronger on this run

 

mean heights of 1025mb over most of the UK from next Thursday. GEM is also building the Azores ridge from the middle of next week. Hopefully ECM will follow suit. 

[Bristawl Si]

Interesting to see the models retreating from a nationwide breakdown scenario.

With June being ok in these parts (imby) bar a few wetter days and maybe not as warm as i like. And July starting off in cracking form, and seemingly continuing it seems this Summer is turning into a decent affair.

LRFs proving a little off track....maybe?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Confidence building that the azores high will sneak through the back door next week as the trough to the north fills and moves away.

Apart from maybe Scotland and the far north of england things are looking mighty fine

[shaky]

Amazing how the breakdown for sunday is virtually non existent now!!!very wam and hot weather is set to continue well into next week now especially for england and wales!!

[Dan the Man]

Looking well into FI (around the 20th onwards) when the Azores High regurgitates, there looks to be some big temperatures, possibly far exceeding this spell's high. Possibly looking at low to maybe mid 30s?

[Neilsouth]

Amazing how the breakdown for sunday is virtually non existent now!!!very wam and hot weather is set to continue well into next week now especially for england and wales!!

 

Good though the position dictates how many get this HEAT, if it's the west then many of the eastern quarter are at risk from chilly winds and possibly cloud as what's been seen during most of this heat wave. It needs to be pretty much directly over the uk or slightly to the east with a more south easterly element.

[Methuselah]

GFS ens, wow the signal is even stronger on this run

 

mean heights of 1025mb over most of the UK from next Thursday. GEM is also building the Azores ridge from the middle of next week. Hopefully ECM will follow suit. 

Even some hope for us in the Triangle...

[shaky]

The ecm is a belter from now till tuesday!!even better than both the ukmo and gfs!!what a turnaround in the last 24 hours!!

[Scorcher]

The ECM raises pressure slightly later but not a lot later-

 

[MR EXTREMES]

The ECM raises pressure slightly later but not a lot later-

 

I expect this little feature to the west of the uk to be gone tomorrow the gem model has gone completely into summer summer mode.

gfs impressive ukmo good ecm good as was said a few days ago when some were getting concerned about talk of a breakdown to summer azores rebuild was always going to be the form horse.

 

as eye in the sky and myself and afew others pointed out the teleconnections are on our side the tropical pacific is pretty quiet and is one connection to help with a better uk summer. more of the same peeps

[Frosty.]

That's a very good Ecm 12z op run for the south of the uk with the very warm/hot and generally settled spell continuing and further north not looking too bad either with some fine and pleasantly warm spells mixed with occasional weak bands of cloud & rain brushing across the far north of the uk from time to time.

 

For the south though the ecm shows higher pressure throughout with high temperatures returning from friday onwards, back to the 26-29c range, tomorrow not too shabby either, closer to 22-24c with a lot more sunshine and just some patchy cloud sticking to the northeastern coastline, then hot for friday, saturday and sunday across the southern half of the uk and continuing fine, very warm and mainly sunny for most of next week, what could be better than that? not so good for the north of the uk but no washout either, atlantic low pressure is steered towards northwest scotland later next week with a northwest-southeast split developing.

Edited July 10, 2013 by Frosty039

[ANYWEATHER]

Big difference on the ecm and gfs atT+240 as one would expect...  

[JK1]

Would be nice if we could have a plume this summer

Edited July 10, 2013 by JK1

[Frosty.]

Would be nice if we could have a plume this summer, but no sign of it on models unfortunately

The trouble with plumes is they don't last as it's usually a thundery breakdown followed by cooler and fresher atlantic air, at least the runs today generally show high pressure remaining in control across the southern half of the uk with very warm/hot temperatures returning and long sunny periods, i'm sure most folk will be happy enough with that, way better than anything we had last summer.

[JK1]

The trouble with plumes is they don't last as it's usually a thundery breakdown followed by cooler and fresher atlantic air, at least the runs today generally show high pressure remaining in control across the southern half of the uk with very warm/hot temperatures returning and long sunny periods, i'm sure most folk will be happy enough with that, way better than anything we had last summer.

yeah don't like sound of cooler air after lol

[Frosty.]

yeah don't like sound of cooler air after lol

it seems to me there won't be any breakdown for the south at all, high pressure to stay in control with the heat we had earlier in the week back by friday onwards, 

[mushymanrob]

interestingly, what looked at first like a major cool down from sunday onwards appears to be being put back and never really reaching the far southeast... this appears to be a cooler blip for some before pressure tries to re-build. the gfs still expects some very hot weather into fi... lets just see if the teleconnections support it...

 

gotta say, theres good reason for optimism for sun/heat lovers.

 

pardon me for quoting myself, but the ecm has the 'breakdown' pushed back even further!  indeed it might not even happen for the southern half of the country and itll be breif in northern areas...

The trouble with plumes is they don't last as it's usually a thundery breakdown followed by cooler and fresher atlantic air, at least the runs today generally show high pressure remaining in control across the southern half of the uk with very warm/hot temperatures returning and long sunny periods, i'm sure most folk will be happy enough with that, way better than anything we had last summer.

 

prefer that myself... heat... thundery breakdown... cooler fresher.. building heat again... constant heat would be boring! lol..

[ANYWEATHER]

it seems to me there won't be any breakdown for the south at all, high pressure to stay in control with the heat we had earlier in the week back by friday onwards, 

If you care to look at the 850mb chart it shows a lot cooler temps and lower pressure, this again is misleading to newbies. Next week wont be as warm as this week..