Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[Cloud 10]

I think he gets the point!

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

reading  on certain people whant the summer to carry  on  but its looks like  its  now  going  down hill  now  july  19  there abouts

[shaky]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

reading on certain people whant the summer to carry on but its looks like its now going down hill now july 19 there abouts

thats way into fantasy land tillybill!!until then its going to be warm!!

[ANYWEATHER]

The general trend is for cooler and more changeable weather next week  with little if any rain away from the nw  of the uk, of course im @ t+168 ,but  of course that's all still fi  

[shedhead]

Except for the fact that the GFS is programming higher temps for Monday than tomorrow for the bulk of England! So a cooler blip for the north, yes, but as you were for the south.

A rather knit picky response to my post chio. I said early next week, I only used Monday as an example for Scotland and N Ireland, as it looks to turn significantly cooler there by then. GFS appears to be on it's own this evening in maintaining the warmth across England and Wales into Tuesday, with ECM much cooler and UKMO likely to be similar if it went to T+168. Not saying GFS will be wrong at this stage, but I would not be surprised to see the 18 and 00 trend more towards ECM....as ever tho time will tell. 

Edited July 9, 2013 by shedhead

[Downpour]

fortunately its not here, its long, lush and very green in derby...

Derby - grass capital of the UK

[Downpour]

A rather knit picky response to my post chio. I said early next week, I only used Monday as an example for Scotland and N Ireland, as it looks to turn significantly cooler there by then. GFS appears to be on it's own this evening in maintaining the warmth across England and Wales into Tuesday, with ECM much cooler and UKMO likely to be similar if it went to T+168. Not saying GFS will be wrong at this stage, but I would not be surprised to see the 18 and 00 trend more towards ECM....as ever tho time will tell.

The Azores High is indeed the form horse - and looks to dominate in the South for much of July on current models

[chionomaniac]

A rather knit picky response to my post chio. I said early next week, I only used Monday as an example for Scotland and N Ireland, as it looks to turn significantly cooler there by then. GFS appears to be on it's own this evening in maintaining the warmth across England and Wales into Tuesday, with ECM much cooler and UKMO likely to be similar if it went to T+168. Not saying GFS will be wrong at this stage, but I would not be surprised to see the 18 and 00 trend more towards ECM....as ever tho time will tell. 

Sorry Shed. It was just that you said that there was nothing in the 12Z GFS to derail the transition to cooler temperatures whereas the 12Z GFS for the bulk of England does keep the warmth before rebuilding the AH. Whereas I agree that the exact positioning of the trough is yet to be determined and that historically the ECM verifies better than the GFS, the 12Z GFS wasn't backing up your post - the UKMO was.

 

For those living towards the south of the country dry settled conditions are likely to continue, no matter what model you look at, with a  reduction in temperatures before another increase later in the period. The centre of any depression is well north of the Shetland Islands on all models.

[bluearmy]

week 2: latest noaa cpc points the trough to our east and a gentle upper ridge north mid atlantic is supported by a mean block to the south, well to our west. latest ecm ens run retrogresses that scandi trough into our neighbourhood days 8 thru 10.  this means that over the next few days, we will see runs that bring us under some rather cool air as we have seen on occasion today and others which emphasise ridging from our west and keep much of the country average to warm. too early to call which is going to win out with any confidence but after today's 12z's the momentum is definitely with the trough and i suspect the less pleasant runs will come to dominate. will be interesting to see the precip signal on the ecm london ens later. i expect the temps will be lower than the 00z suite.

[Evening thunder]

Gem doesn't look that that bad to to me, things do turn cooler like most models show into next week, but FWIW uppers don't really fall below 8C in the south and not for long, and by the end of the run it has the Azores high nudging in again and uppers around 12c

 

ECM doesn't look too bad to me either, a average-ish run overall (perhaps better than if you include the 5 warm-hot days in the 1st half of the run, at least for southern parts). Very warm to hot still in the south until Monday, then cooler, although a high having more influence towards the end again and temps warming to the low 20's or just above.

[Jimmy0127]

I sense an impending disagreement between GFS and ECM, GFS seems to be going for more ridging over NW Europe than 12z run.
 

 

 

 

Fancy the look of this little feature:

 

 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2013 by Jimmy0127

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh look the -10 850s reform over Greenland at 372 lol 

 

[nitro_deluxe]

Battle of air masses could well mean a few, possible fireworks? Especially for those actually beneath it

Loving the tug of war at the moment, which'll finally take over and win..

[Jimmy0127]

Oh look the -10 850s reform over Greenland at 372 lol 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heights getting a bit further west on GFS 18z vs 12z, and the trend is in disagreement with ECM, that's all I'm saying.

Edited July 9, 2013 by Jimmy0127

[Panayiotis]

Apart from some few blips, this spell could continue 'til the third week of July! Models which go up to 240hrs say yes!

 

I did say a week ago that any break down would be brief!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77164-model-output-discussion-12z-300613/?view=findpost&p=2728705

Edited July 9, 2013 by Panayiotis

[samadamsuk]

hey all.

 

 

GFS 18Z an absolute belter imo (for someone looking for hot and humid) - no real breakdown, then some serious hp building waa as the trough in the atlantic organises at t192, then the trough disrupting and bringing some storms while we sit SW of the high at t216, then the Azores high knocking on our door again. Very 1995 esque if you ask me. Bank!

ECM not massively dissimilar but it sets out the weak trough further west, and so we stay on the NE quadrant of the high pressure, but without the cool air pooling down across the UK as in recent years - UKMO I believe following the GFS evolution more at present.

 

We shall see hey -

 

Disclaimer: Anyone looking for a balanced all encompassing forecast, skip my post: I concentrate on what bonafide support I see in the outlooks to bring hot & thundery weather in the summer, but I respect all styles of posting!

[Gustywind]

Current sunny and warm spell ends for the north on Sunday, central and southern areas Monday. Another very pleasant weekend to come for most though with Saturday looking like the pick of the days.

After that high pressure never strays too far, hanging out to the sw of the uk before moving back in for the following weekend. Unfortunately we are way out in FI by then though.

[mushymanrob]

Derby - grass capital of the UK

 

...i cut grass for a living, trust me, if it was likely to brown off (imminantly) id be moaning! (believe it or not) lol.. already lost 6 weeks of work in spring, a drought is the last thing i want!

 

well the hotter of the weather looks like fizzling out as the high retreats back home allowing in the atlantic from the northwest. but pressure is never too low, especially in the south, and with a northwesterly flow those in the southeast and london area wont fare too badly.

 

the 00z gfs this morning in fi suggests a return of high pressure as the azores high becomes displaced and sits over us, returning us to another hot spell, pretty much as teits suggested might happen. ok, its fi, it has practically no support, but imho it isnt beyond the realms of realism, it is a feasible option, so fi or not, can be regarded as possible albeit with some high degree of caution.

[Captain Shortwave]

the 00z gfs this morning in fi suggests a return of high pressure as the azores high becomes displaced and sits over us, returning us to another hot spell, pretty much as teits suggested might happen. ok, its fi, it has practically no support, but imho it isnt beyond the realms of realism, it is a feasible option, so fi or not, can be regarded as possible albeit with some high degree of caution.

There's reasonable ensemble support for the GFS, well it looks like the Azores high might try and build back towards us in 8-10 days time. GEM looks pretty good too this morning. Lets see whether the ECM follows suit.

[Frosty.]

Lots more fine and warm weather to come in the days ahead with sunny spells and light winds and as our thoughts turn towards the weekend, it continues to look fine and warm for the southern half of the uk with a strong ridge of high pressure but it then looks as though our very summery pattern is going to require a reboot, the ukmo 00z at T+144 hours is a good example as a spoiler trough to the northeast of the BI slides southeast but luckily for us it appears as though it will be a glancing blow and only graze across the northeast of the uk with pressure rising again in the atlantic, there is good model agreement for a cooler more changeable blip to develop during the first half of next week but then a steady recovery as the azores/atlantic anticyclone builds in again, the gem and gfs 00z show a return to the very warm and settled pattern soon after mid month which could mean a very summery last 10 days of July for all parts of the uk.

 

So in summary, the north of the uk will eventually feel the change to cooler more changeable weather significantly more than further south but we will all notice a change next week although it only looks brief before the very summery weather makes a comeback later in the month which will hopefully continue into august.

Edited July 10, 2013 by Frosty039

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looking very good for a reload of the azores high as we get pas sun/mon.

No sign of the trough getting stuck over the uk for the most of july 

[snowking]

This sums up the likelihood of next week for me perfectly:

 

 

The UK riding the boundary between ridging to the West, and Troughing to the East. This mornings outputs generally favour more of an influence from the West than the East, but I think the overall theme will be something a little fresher (thank goodness!), temperatures moving back to around average values, and perhaps a little more in the way of precipitation potential towards Northern and Eastern areas in the form of showers.

 

ECM ensembles pointing in the same direction too:

 

 

SK

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

This sums up the likelihood of next week for me perfectly:

 

 

The UK riding the boundary between ridging to the West, and Troughing to the East. This mornings outputs generally favour more of an influence from the West than the East, but I think the overall theme will be something a little fresher (thank goodness!), temperatures moving back to around average values, and perhaps a little more in the way of precipitation potential towards Northern and Eastern areas in the form of showers.

 

ECM ensembles pointing in the same direction too:

 

Screen Shot 2013-07-10 at 09.54.34.png

 

SK

Yes, i think a col like situation could be on the menu next week SK with the UK in a kind of nomans land.The hope is the trough will eventually weaken and move away,the jet profile/MJO etc will then dictate if we get a decent ridging azores high or systems moving in from the North west.

No deluges that i can see and the GEFS london ensemble suite looks pretty damn dry if not overly warm.

All in all,no heatwave after the weekend but no washout.

[phil nw.]

Interesting to look at the NH 500hPa pattern over the last month.Click on the image for a run through

 

We can see how we are in a more typical UK Summer pattern this year with lower polar heights and the ebbing and flowing of the Azores high across the UK local.Notice too how the mean jet flow eased north as we got towards the end of June-that's where we need it to stay for a decent Summer.

 

The good news is ,Looking at the means and anomaly outputs, there's no real sign of any radical change over the next 10 days with the overall +ve NAO pattern.

Last nights CPC Hts forecast-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

The mean core of the heights locating just south west of the UK next week but with good ridging especially further south.

It's always tricky trying to give detail on surface conditions more than a couple of day ahead but my summary would be that fine and warm conditions continue.

Generally speaking this setup would mean a lot of dry and sunny weather away from the far north where weak frontal systems would likely bring some cloud and rain on occasion.We can see that mean trough to our north which is digging towards Scandinavia next week.

 

I quite like these graphs from WZ they show an overall picture-these for Aberdeen and London.

 

 

Looking at those it shows the mainly dry picture continuing-Still quite warm for many but perhaps not the widespread hot conditions many of us have been seeing.

 

 

 

[Milhouse]

We are now entering the warmest part of the year so we dont need exceptional charts to deliver very warm conditions. The GFS 0z and 6z both showed a very warm, locally hot weekend in the south and the warmth persisting into next week with any rain bands mostly fizzling out and not amounting to much at all. All areas will see a breakdown of high pressure but as far as the settled and warm conditions are concerned its the northern half of the UK which will see these being removed from Sunday onwards. The southern half will continue fine and very warm.